Once More, With Feeling

Fact: in 2018, Beto O'Rourke won TX's 11 counties w/ a Whole Foods Market by 802k votes & lost everywhere else by 1,016k votes, for a loss of 214k overall.

Since 2018, TX's 11 Whole Foods counties have added a net 765k voters, while TX's other 243 counties have added just 396k.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 18, 2020

The major determinant of the presidential race in TX, in my opinion, will be Dem turnout/performance in low-income Hispanic areas *without* Whole Foods Markets.

That's why I'll be watching targeting of Dem ads/high-profile visits in places like RGV, Laredo etc. in next 16 days.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 18, 2020

Texas doesn’t register voters by party’s, so talk of the record voter registration here is muted. We can’t say what it means, but the cities of Texas are largely blue (it ain’t just Austin anymore, and hasn’t been for years) , and that’s where the early voting is. It’s also unlikely Beto was inspiring large GOP registration.

As for Laredo, etc., all the poor and Hispanic counties in Texas went for Clinton in 2016. They are as staunchly Democratic as any counties in Texas.

The Blue Wave is real.*

*Whole Foods counties are those with major urban areas. 57% of voters in Texas live there.