— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) December 2, 2020When Poppy Bush pardoned the Iran/Contra figures on his way out the door, he effectively quashed the investigation of special prosecutor Lawrence Walsh. Walsh didn't have sufficient (anyway) evidence that Poppy was in that scandal up to his eyeballs (Bush's pardon proved that, IMHLO), but he might have developed it in the investigation and prosecution of various members of the scandal. After the pardons, though, there was no reason to pursue the investigation, for much the same reason Mueller didn't investigate Trump too deeply: if you can't prosecute, you don't investigate. J. Edgar Hoover ran roughshod over that rule, so it's a good one to follow, if only to never have another Hoover in power.
Bush didn't exonerate himself; he just escaped the clutches of the law.
Trump thinks he's going to do the same thing. Of course, he can't escape New York law because he doesn't have pardon power over state criminal actions. Pardoning witnesses is not the Get out of Jail Free card he imagines it is, though. Sure, a criminal prosecutor would like to have leverage over lower persons on the criminal ladder, but pursuing Trump on tax or fraud charges is not the same thing as investigating Michael Corleone for ordering people to be murdered. You need the smaller "players" to turn against the big one, because there's a chain between the hand that lifts the weapon and the mouth that gave the order to do so. In the classic scene from "Godfather II," Michael brings in a family member from the old country to the hearing. Message received: the turncoat denies his evidence and commits suicide in prison, so his family is taken care of. Michael Corleone is not accused of anything.
Prosecuting Trump for fudging his taxes or running scams is not the same problem. Trump's fingerprints are all over everything. He didn't give vague directions to underlings who "understood" what he meant. He directed everything, right down to phoning foreign officials and telling them he needed a favor in return. He even published the transcript of that one, just as he signed off on the bogus tax returns. The documents will testify against him, and he can't pardon them. Witnesses will have to testify or face contempt, maybe even perjury, charges. Michael Flynn might be loyal to Trump, or Roger Stone, even Paul Manafort. But what do they know about Trump's business dealings? He might pardon his kids, but what about Michael Cohen? Or any employee of Trump's who doesn't want to face criminal charges?
The people Trump can pardon probably won't testify against him anyway. Jr. and Eric and even Ivanka could just plead the 5th. Pardoning them takes away that shield. Refusing to testify would place them in contempt of court, maybe even facing obstruction of justice charges, charges they wouldn't face with the protections of the Constitution (yes, the irony of that is rich). Even the U.S. DOJ could investigate Trump without the information from his children, or get it from them with the same procedures. Poppy was, at best, part of a conspiracy committed while he was VP. Shut down the investigation of the conspiracy because no one can be prosecuted except maybe the former President (and after four years they didn't have the goods on him yet) was the way out there. Now all roads lead to Trump, and there are plenty of witnesses in the White House, or elsewhere, who won't get pre-emptive pardons. Not to mention just the obvious documentation on the tax cases. Trump signed those returns. Most of the testimony in court will be from experts about how illegal Trump's returns were. If he faces federal investigations, there will be plenty of witnesses without get out of jail free cards who don't want to pay lawyers to protect them from FBI agents and charges of obstruction of justice.
Trump isn't getting out of his future all that easily.
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