A Few Points

A few points about Trump’s almost certain third campaign for president 1) it will be much smaller initially than his past efforts. That’s something most current staffers are happy about, having found 2020 to be bloated. Except it’s not clear who’s staffing core operations 1/

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 4, 2022

…the bigger issue is that if Trump announces soon, he starts the clock on hard-dollar spending, and cuts himself off from his outside groups defraying other expenses, like his personal legal bills 3/3

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 4, 2022

No. 3 is the most interesting. Trump clearly thinks announcing his candidacy will be a "magic shield" against the DOJ.

NB: Trump is facing multiple investigations that his advisers anticipate will heat up again after next week’s midterms, particularly into the documents held for no clear explicable reason at Mar-a-Lago. His advisers say he thinks DOJ will move differently if he’s a candidate

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 4, 2022

But reports are the DOJ is considering a special prosecutor in case Trump runs and wins and the prosecution continues into 2025 (always possible).  Or just to shield the DOJ from charges of political interference, though that seems a less likely screen to your humble host.  Either way, being a candidate is no defense, especially if Trump is in court in October, 2024.  The judge is not going to suspend the trial for a month to await the outcome of the election.

Trump may believe all that is going to happen, but it won't.

No, this is a matter of "follow the money."  If announcing cuts Trump off from his honey pots, there's a reason he's reluctant to announce. Especially since he's just filed suit in Florida against the NYAG. That won't last long, but unless those lawyers were dumb enough to give Trump a hamburger today on the promise he'd pay for it next Tuesday, he's got a lot of legal bills coming in the door, some of his own insistent making.

Trump in Iowa: "And now, in order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again. Ok? Very, very probably."

— Meridith McGraw (@meridithmcgraw) November 4, 2022

That may be exactly as much as he announces in Iowa today.  But does he know whether to shit, or go blind?  Running is a magic shield (it isn't, but he thinks so).  But running also means he has to pay his legal bills.  So:  shit?  Or go blind?

Aye, that's the question....

(And there really is another issue here:

Trump wants to be the Republican future, but it was the prolonged past that took center stage at his Iowa rally last night when the 76-year-old former president teamed up with an 89-year-old senator to roast the 79-year-old Democrat in the White House.https://t.co/Dhl4YGmVk9

— Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) November 4, 2022

Turnout of young voters in early voting is reportedly quite high. They may be more sympathetic to a Jack Kennedy figure in 2024, just because he's Jack Kennedy (i.e., young). It's happened before, and may be about time for it to happen again.  It's also worth remembering Kennedy and Nixon were of the same generation.  A Millenial Presidential candidate may be a potent force indeed, especially against a Boomer.)