🌊

Morning everyone! 6 days of voting left in the 2022 elections. Be sure to vote early!

Some things I'm seeing today:
- Early vote is very strong for Ds
- Red wave may come, but not here yet
- Of course abortion is top issue for Ds
- Good Senate, youth, Hispanic polling 1/

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 3, 2022

Need to be very clear here:

- Rs are underperforming their 2020 numbers in the early vote in almost every major state
- R Senate candidates are under 2020 Trump results in AZ, GA, IA, NC, OH, PA.

This is the opposite of a red wave. 3/https://t.co/0H5R3aHvc2

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 3, 2022

More signs of no red wave yet:
- McConnell buying heavily in NC, OH
- Trump going to IA
- desperate effort by Rs to game the polls

This 👇 5/https://t.co/EUFZYtU0bH

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 3, 2022

The Republicans are claiming a lead in all races, which is the traditional way to talk at this point. OTOH, it also allows them to cry “Fraud!” Which has some legs so long as we take polls as predictors of the future. Which they aren’t and never have been. But the GOP will use (invented) polls to claim they were cheated. In a rational world, the response would be: “Eh, the polls were wrong.”

I'm focused on the early vote, not polls now:
- As early vote has grown, it's a lot of data, tells us a lot about the election
- Most +R tracks assuming Rs more energized. EV not showing that
- Poll averages have been gamed/corrupted by Rs 👇7/https://t.co/5VpDxgnH2A

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 3, 2022

Which just happens to be correct. 👍