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6/ I wrote earlier this week that an indictment of Trump in the Mar-a-Lago documents case is likely and I stand by that.

Trump's willful possession of classified docs *after* DOJ demanded their return and subpoenaed them served up an easy case to DOJ. https://t.co/romQr0F2JY

— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) November 18, 2022

15/ But the Mar-a-Lago documents case is more like the drug cases I prosecuted as a junior prosecutor than the complex white collar cases I've handed since then. A conviction doesn't turn as much on intent or state of mind.

If you have the docs (or drugs), you're guilty.

— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) November 18, 2022

Longtime readers of this blog (all 3 of you!) know that my one brush with criminal law was a possession case, involving a felon and a firearm.  It did not go well for our client, as we couldn't find any grounds to present that might merit acquittal.

Because "possession" means "custody or control," and in our client's case he was driving a car with a package tray (remember those?) behind the back seat, and there was a shotgun (IIRC) laying back there.  If it had been in the trunk he probably would have been fine, but it was so obviously displayed the officer stopping him for a traffic violation (again, IIRC; this was almost 40 years ago, people!) had no choice but to arrest him the minute he ran the guy's driver's license.

Our guy was driving the car, no one else was in the car, ergo: custody and control.  

You see where I'm going with this.

Trump hasn't denied possession of the documents (except when he says they were planted, a position his counsel has refused to offer evidence for to the special master).  He has tried to change the status of the documents:  personal, declassified, "everybody else got to!"  None of those are defenses that will stand up in court. (Yes, there is also an obstruction charge, since Trump knew he had to give the docs up, and he didn't.  I think his intent is pretty clear on that, too, even if he does whine that "Obama got to keep his! It's not fair, it's not fair!"  Tell my I'm exaggerating.)

I would think the possession of government documents would be a little trickier than Mariotti says, but he knows far better than I do.  I think it should be tougher because people on Twitter have told me so.  But if it's as simple a matter as possession of drugs or a firearm, then I'm convinced:  Trump is toast.

How toasted is the question.  This is not a hanging offense and not one he gets buried under the jail for, either.  But some time in minimum security would be quite interesting, to say the least.  And maybe he'd get out just in time to face charges in Georgia, and for the Jan. 6th insurrection.  At least we'd know where he was, and he wouldn't have much access to social media.

Might be kinda nice.