Conventional Wisdom Watch

Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, now Mike Pence -- a crowded GOP field helps Trump, and that's exactly what's happening

Vote— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 31, 2023

And an empty field helps Trump. Aside from DeSantis, whose numbers are dropping like a stone in deep water, the field might as well be empty. If it was only Trump, non-Trump voters would not vote in the primaries. A few voters will turn out for Haley or Scott or (yeah, right!), Christie; but this isn’t 2016. Trump is not a spoiler with a reputation from reality TeeVee. The field is not a toss-up. It’s Trump’s race to lose.  There’s nothing now to indicate he would lose the nomination to any one other candidate in 2024.

Crowded field, empty field: same results. Unless that crowded field dilutes his support, and throws the whole thing into the convention. Funny nobody regards that as a possibility yet.  But prognosticators are always fighting the last campaign, and in the GOP this year that means 2016.

But you can’t replay that one and expect the same results.