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I STRONGLY condemn my brother's deplorable and untruthful remarks last week about Covid being engineered for ethnic targeting. https://t.co/9YCag7JtHm

— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) July 17, 2023

My uncle’s comments were hurtful and wrong. I unequivocally condemn what he said.

— Joe Kennedy III (@joekennedy) July 17, 2023

The thing about RFK Jr is that no one at all would pay attention to him if his name weren’t Kennedy, which he freely trades on. But actual family members continue to denounce him as deeply wrong, dangerous and a betrayal to what the family stands for in Democratic politics. https://t.co/uUylTQF7e6

— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) July 17, 2023

I know this is important because it’s so offensive and so stupid, and because it’s a Kennedy; but also because it’s summer and hot and what else are you gonna talk about, Charlie Kirk and TPUSA?

But seriously, folks…

We all really know RFK, Jr. isn’t even likely to make it onto many ballots in the Democratic primary, much less be a spoiler next November. I mean, how many people in Democratic primaries are going to vote for RFK, Jr.? How many people even want to be talking about him by Hallowe’en? Or Cornel West, for that matter:

And I thought the 2016 election was crazy. pic.twitter.com/nGuWVqdtam

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) July 18, 2023

A lot of Biden voters will peel off for that.  So, yeah:

No Labels' own polling has shown: a third-party candidate would pull more from Biden than Trump in 2024. There's not a scenario where their spoiler doesn't secure a second term for Trump. https://t.co/r447tRaJbL

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 17, 2023

But "a candidate to be named later” always polls well this time of year.  And this “dream ticket”?

Correct https://t.co/NZQG9oZsQs

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 17, 2023

They couldn’t spoil milk. Manchin and Huntsman combined make Biden look as charismatic as Bill Clinton. Who the hell turns out to vote for this ticket? Ross Perot was crazy as a bedbug, dropped in and out of the race, and still won 19% of the vote. And he drew people out to vote who wouldn’t have voted for Clinton or Bush. The argument is always that voting is a zero-sum game: I win, you lose. But voter turnout changes every four years. It was extremely low in 2016, much higher in 2020. One explanation is no one wanted to vote for Hillary in 2016, and no one wanted Trump re-elected in 2020. Can we prove any of this to be empirically true?

And there are always third-party Presidential candidates. Why aren’t they always spoilers? Mostly because they don’t draw voters. Not in significant numbers.

I’m not sure Joe Manchin can draw flies.