Overperformance And You

Trump remains weaker than most think https://t.co/hq5CMlmMB9

— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) May 5, 2024

 This is worth quoting at length:

As you often hear me say we’ve had a repeating electoral dynamic since Dobbs - Dems overperform, Republicans struggle. My explanation for this dynamic is that Dobbs broke the GOP, and for many non-MAGA Rs the party had at that moment just become too extreme, too dangerous. Since Dobbs Republican candidates have had performance problems because a chunk of their coalition just isn’t enthusiastic about following MAGA candidates and the escalating extremism of the GOP. And where this reticence manifests is when Republicans vote and have to make an actual decision on whether to support MAGA. While they may want to vote R in a poll, when voters have to pull the trigger and actually vote Republicans repeatedly perform worse than expected. 

We’ve seen this dynamic - Republicans repeatedly struggling - show up in 2024 now too. We saw it in the Tom Keen January special election in Orlando; in the Suozzi win in February; in Alabama a few weeks ago; in NY-26 Tuesday; and most importantly we’ve seen it again and again in Trump’s Presidential primary performances, where he has repeatedly underperformed public polling and Haley repeatedly performed far better than anyone expected, even after she dropped out of the race. Remember in 2024 Trump has been repeatedly *underperforming* public polling. 

I also think we’ve seen this dynamic in the recent Marist polling that breaks out likely voters from registered voters, something few polls are doing right now. In this week’s Marist poll Biden leads 50-48 (+2) with registered voters, but 52-47 (+5) with “definite” or likely voters. My explanation for this is as people move from being an adult to registered voter to likely voter to actual voter and are faced with pulling that lever for MAGA Trump and Republicans lose ground. As voters get get closer to voting, and go through the process of having to consider the options in front of them, a meaningful number just can’t go for MAGA and either don’t vote or choose another option (Haley, the Dem). This 2024 MAGA ugliness and extremism is too much for too many, and the GOP coalition doesn’t stay together, Republican candidates struggle, underperform and lose, again and again. 

Will this happen again this November? Will Americans, as they check into the election, and see Joe Biden good President, Donald Trump the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, become more Dem and propel us to victory? I continue to believe this is the most likely scenario this year. And this is why our work in helping voters understand the choice in front of them, and in building our big, muscular campaigns that will also help voters understand this stark and consequential choice is so vital. It’s why every day we need to do more, worry less. For doing more is what is going to make sure we win this November.

Not because it means everything’s coming up roses, but because it’s a good analysis and a strong argument for the virtues of campaigning. Besides: history, and polls suck, and “overperforming” for lagniappe.

What’s not to love?