Wrote this up quickly, busy day, but there's a lot of detail in here. For instance, the excuse about early voting is obvious BS. pic.twitter.com/V50sQZVDis
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 15, 2024
He is also the very model of a modern Major General, with information vegetable, animal, and mineral. But with the simple tactic of using his own momentum against him:Anyway, there's a lot of game theory in here, and I have a lot of domain knowledge on this from having modeled out the effects on polling from the debates and similar events. This is tactically smart by Biden, but they're definitely minimizing their candidate's exposure.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 15, 2024
One could easily argue Trump already has. Hannibal Lecter? Sums up in two words the utterly baffling gibberish Trump spouts at nearly every public appearance. Puts it on a bumper sticker, if you will. Further examples are literally legion. Aside from Trump taking responsibility for ending Roe. Or ending public health mandates at schools. Or, as he’s already doing, trying to wriggle out of the debates he so eagerly agreed to.Nate—
— Rex Byner (@RexByner) May 15, 2024
This opinion is one-sided.
Why?
Ezra could also easily ask the same
question in reverse:
Because this also gives the GOP a chance to institute an “emergency plan” if something really goes wrong for Trump.
When you stop and think, the odds are greater that Trump implodes.
But I’m sure, in all his “domain knowledge on this from having modeled out the effects on polling from the debates and similar events,” Mr. Silver has taken all of that, and Trump’s criminal trials, into account.
Is it any wonder pollsters and the reporters who love them still talk about Democrats “over performing”? Shit, Ezra is just playing the same “the incumbent is weak let’s imagine the impossible” game that gets played every 4 years. And Silver is dumb enough to imagine there’s such a thing as an empirical prediction of the future where politics is concerned.
The other day Keith Olbermann commented on how badly trained reporters were and how much stupider they are now than they used to be, Silver and Klein are perfect specimens of that. And there is that Nate Silver traffics in pseudo-science done to order by wealthy owners of media companies. I'd add more dishonest to that mix, as well.
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