Whinging = Losing

Pathetic. Trump sycophant politicians show up, stay 45 minutes, know nothing about the details of the case or evidence, go outside to make a statement to the media that it’s all political, then leave. The typical shallow, repetitive, brainless political theater of the MAGA GOP. pic.twitter.com/jyKSHc4Sep

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) May 14, 2024

Explanation:

Is Biden in “Denial” about the Polls, like Axios says? https://t.co/7HuyqQeRNo via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) May 14, 2024

Republicans always think they’re winning, except in races that are basically uncontested. I first got an inkling of this in the first era of online political betting markets back during George W. Bush’s first term. Those markets were disproportionately made up of Republicans and they consistently overstated Republican odds, for basically any race. It’s basically a rule. If a race is at all close Republicans think they’re winning, or at least say they think they’re winning. Democrats are the reverse. And if they’re demonstrably winning, they worry that they’re not winning by enough or should be winning by more. 

I think anyone who follows politics closely knows this is true – if not in absolute terms than as a universal tendency – and can confirm it by reviewing races over any span of time.

Thesis, and conclusion:

As I said above, my point here isn’t to argue what appears to be the Biden team’s theory of the case. It’s to note that reality that Republicans almost always think they’re winning, if the objective evidence makes it even remotely possible. And Democrats tend to assume or fear defeat – and say as much – unless polls consistently show them crushing their rivals. Not only is this the case but I think if we’re honest about it we assume this pattern to be the case. It’s so clearly the case that it’s actually one of the assumptions we bring to our understanding of politics. We assume Democrats think that way and that Republicans think the other way. And that, to a significant degree, is why reporters and the press generally acts in the way they do.

Johnson is assuming complaining = winning. For Democrats, complaining = whinging. Which, I think, is why Democrats “over perform” consistently.  Whingers just aren’t that popular.