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New polls from Fox, CBS, & NBC this AM find Trump up by 1-2 pts, well within the margin of error, nationally and in the swing states. This is a close race where anything (assassination attempts, health concerns, policy salience, ground game, poll bias) could make the difference.

— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) July 14, 2024

Then Trump will need another assassination attempt on Hallowe’en.

This one will have been forgotten by then.