“Complexity Is The Job”, Or: Why I Admire AOC

Pelosi Going Full Thunderdome? https://t.co/F4hELNyMed via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) July 20, 2024

I’ll reiterate my earlier point: there’s neither the time nor the apparatus for having anything but a fake, illegitimate and parodic process. And you have no electorate to make a choice. The delegates are just a mix of Biden friends, allies, elected officials and party activists chosen for the purely symbolic purposes of ratifying his nomination at the national convention. There’s no basis or logic for them to be choosing between Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom or whoever those guys are imagining. The whole idea that you’re going to have a three week barnstorm of townhalls with the all half dozen rising governor hot shots hosted by Barack Obama and Bill Clinton is just a fantasy of politics influencers. I doubt that could happen even if James Carville organized it to appear on Pod Save America with Barack Obama as host because I don’t think anyone will throw their hat in the ring.

As good a place to start as any. So, how do you make the work of a gang of wannabe king makers look like a grassroots effort to save the party…from a gang of wannabe king makers?

First, ya gotta kill the king. And how’s that working out?

I first reported on Thursday that Hillary and Bill Clinton were privately encouraging donors to stick with Joe Biden.

Details of how the Clintons are pushing back on rebellious donors and some on Wall Street & Hollywood are shrugging them off 👇https://t.co/Z4IOV3MuVh https://t.co/fVn0jLMmGn

— Brian Schwartz (@schwartzbCNBC) July 20, 2024

As JMM points out, a lot of this talk is from third-tier people who want to sound like they know something. Reports about Bill and Hillary run counter to the narrative, which gives those reports credibility. It also aligns with this:

NEW: Joe Biden is scheduled to be in Chicago in late July for a fundraiser, just days before the start of the virtual roll call vote that’s expected to seal his nomination.

Another sign Biden is staying in the race beyond this week and there are no plans for him to drop out. pic.twitter.com/DWiExj32mP

— Brian Schwartz (@schwartzbCNBC) July 20, 2024

No sign Biden is going anywhere; and some signs he does have support from people who know a thing or two about Presidential campaigns. But some people say all you need are swing voters:

Thread worth reading here: https://t.co/qiJOLgMTAk

— Susan Glasser (@sbg1) July 20, 2024

Focus groups are not large enough to swing an election; and there’s the reality of the vote impending:

Yep. People can listen for themselves and draw their own conclusions.

But folks need to hear the truth about aspects of this convo that are not being adequately addressed when the stakes are so high. First ballots go out in ~8-9 weeks.

Watch here: https://t.co/Omc5rzNEds https://t.co/gZREjljhsR

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) July 19, 2024

I have no choice but to give you the gory details:

The debate sucked. Biden sucked, Trump sucked and is a racist and neo-nazi. But she doesn’t think it changed what normal people already knew. What changed is the middle group between regular voters and people in power. The pundits, the media, etc.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

There is a time for private and off the record comments. But if you’re gonna say as an elected official that you’ve resigned to Trump winning, leave your seat.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

Republicans are going to challenge EVERYTHING and there would be a serious possibility of the election being decided by the courts.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

If it’s a new nominee, money can’t be transferred. No one has come forward with a plan. And @RepAOC doesn’t mean the pundits, she means the lawyers and legislators have not presented a plan about what’s possible. She has not seen a scenario that does not set us up for peril.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

People who would want to be President don’t want to be shooed in like that 8 weeks before an election. @AOC: You think the election is in November? No it’s in 8 weeks - the convention is in a month and first early ballots go out a month after.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

Let me intrude here to ask: What politician is dumb enough to want to replace Biden in hopes of winning the race in 8 weeks? Much less in 10 weeks? This is McGovern replacing Eagleton, redux. McGovern did two things wrong: he made a bad decision worse (showing he wasn’t a decision maker); and he bowed to pressure (not a good look for the chief executive).

People underestimate Biden’s performance. That’s how he became President. People see where he’s weak electorally but they don’t see where he’s strong electorally. Whether you like it or not, Biden does great with older people electorally, one of the most consistent electorates.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

So, polling: Delphic oracle? Or chicken guts?

@AOC is not here to say that anyone is wrong with a capital W. But she’s very worried about this election being decided by Clarence Thomas and the Supreme Court.

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

And money. And a handful of residents of the BosWash.

“I have campaigned for the President not because I’m a campaign co-chair but because he is the nominee and the stakes are too high. We need to fight the courts, we’ve passed an insane amount of legislation. But there’s also a lot I disagree with - complexity is the job.”

— Allie Peck (@apeck422) July 19, 2024

So let’s just abandon all hope and give Trump the victory by default because some donors and anonymous sources started a narrative that’s filling the days before Labor Day with lots of smoke and no sign of fire?

Or, you know, not. My money’s still on “not.”