That’s part of a very long thread on polls which, ironically, accepts the MAGA framing that polls matter more than election results.Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/https://t.co/wHpYU9qy6j
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 21, 2024
It is reassuring that recent poll reports are just so much dust in the air, but the underlying MAGA point remains: if polls are so important, why are election results so different?Even after "movement towards Trump" here is the @WashingtonPost battleground state polling averages this morning. The Post has a tighter screen on what polls they accept. It shows Harris at 270+ and winning. 5/ pic.twitter.com/Rgre59T1QN
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 21, 2024
Same song, different verse. Although that one draws some interesting responses:I expect that most of the major media-sponsored/university pollsters are holding their powder for the final two weeks. So prepare to be inundated.
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 21, 2024
But this narrative of Harris slippage from the last week is (a) very slight, and (b) based mostly on data from low quality pollsters
All polling needs to be a dying profession. It's useless nowadays
— TruckerJohn_P (@H1M_16) October 21, 2024
Frankly, all polling is no more reliable than this:The only polls I will even bother to consider will have more than 2,000 people polled
— Michael Kowsari (@RealMKowsari) October 21, 2024
And is touted for pretty much the same purpose.Nevada: Vice President Harris Predicted to Win
— Vijay Jyotish (@vijayjyotishusa) August 26, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to secure victory in Nevada, thereby gaining 6 electoral votes.
Key Insights from the Forecast
• Vice President Harris is expected to garner support from women, LGBTQ+ communities, and… pic.twitter.com/PmizhplAdF
), but still we all use them to predict the future, and then decide they are the future! And then when they aren’t, we fight the future! Anything but discard the polls as a fiction we make up to make ourselves feel like we’re in control of what we can’t really control.Polls are using small samples which means smaller subgroups, complex weighting schemes, oversampling, etc to get desired result. It’s unethical to me. Also, I like this guy’s take:
— Lori Thombs (@LoriThombs) October 21, 2024
'Driven by falsehoods': Ex-GOP operative shreds latest MAGA election lawsuitshttps://t.co/ji1wrWL3Up
— Raw Story (@RawStory) October 21, 2024
“Many of these suits seem like vehicles to spread conspiracy theories and misinformation,” she said. “In other words, they read more as press releases than serious legal claims.”
David Becker, who runs the nonpartisan non-profit Center for Election Innovation and Research, meanwhile, similarly told the Guardian that while the lawsuits are "very unlikely to get the relief they’re seeking, this could later fuel claims that the election was stolen."Yes, they could. So maybe it’s time to get off this not so merry-go-round. Spurious claims of in-citizens voting (non-white people!) are more easily swatted away as unserious, but we still think polling is serious and reliable. It is neither. Like recognizing racism is real and systemic (and we can do something about that), it’s time to recognize polls are the problem.
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