Nothin’ But Good Times Ahead!

Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current… pic.twitter.com/p0dUrnH2o0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 15, 2026

Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.

We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.

Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.

We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.

Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.

And then comes the rationing:

Another automaker warning on motor oil availability earlier due to base oils availability… allowing substitutions, credit to @CostaKapo pic.twitter.com/R5U6JgWesw

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 15, 2026

"Another automaker warning on motor oil availability?

And our President’s reality is a bubble in his own mind:

“Very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation”

I wish Trump was smart enough to know when he’s being humiliated. pic.twitter.com/CYxxnblBK6

— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) May 15, 2026

Trump to NYT's David Sanger: "I had a total military victory. But the fake news, guys like you, write incorrectly. You're a fake guy. We had a total military victory. I actually think it's sort of treasonous what you write. You should be ashamed of yourself. I actually think it's… pic.twitter.com/QK421YHKtq

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 15, 2026

In the same "gaggle:"

A “total military victory”

but also

“sort of finished militarily”
“pretty much”
“probably 70–75%”
“we didn’t finish every one of the things”

and

“we’ll go back and finish them off.” https://t.co/EIUcPYgnHz

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) May 15, 2026

What does "fake news” even mean anymore? 😑

COLLINS: “What about Trump’s promise to lower gas prices?”

JORDAN: “That’s life.”@kaitlancollins: “If someone’s paying more for⛽️, saying ‘that’s life’ might not make them feel better.”@Jim_Jordan: “Those are your words, not mine.”

COLLINS: “No you said that. Just now.”😬 pic.twitter.com/Ry2ve9Dsy3

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) May 15, 2026

Same energy. This is what happens when you play “Follow the Leader” for too damned long.