Well, That’s Not Good

Roberts's majority opinion articulates the Court's view of where the line is, and remands to the district court to decide, in light of that ruling, which of the charges in the indictment can go forward.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) July 1, 2024

Kind of the outcome that was expected, but not in the way that was expected.

Sotomayor: "With fear for our democracy, I dissent."

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) July 1, 2024

Yeah, this is not good.

Historically, #SCOTUS has bent over backwards to avoid splitting right down ideological (or partisan) lines in cases of such national importance.

Its failure to avoid those optics here is a major institutional failure—whether you're more or less sympathetic to the bottom line.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) July 1, 2024

Nor is this.

There's an important sub-part of the Trump immunity ruling in which #SCOTUS holds that "protected conduct" (that can't be prosecuted) also can't be used as *evidence* to establish other charges.

Justice Barrett, otherwise concurring, agrees with the dissenters that that's wrong.

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) July 1, 2024

Aye, there's the rub.

This is a big part of why the ruling is a bigger win for Trump than many of us had been expecting. It’s not just which acts will be immune; it’s how this will hamstring efforts to prosecute even those acts for which there *isn’t* immunity. That’s why Barrett concurs only in part. https://t.co/SwIofaiBqs

— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) July 1, 2024

And that’s why.

My two cents is that this makes the D.C. prosecution even more difficult (Trump was no longer POTUS for the documents case, so this shouldn’t apply. Emphasis on “shouldn’t”). Whether the vaunted and anticipated “mini-trial” will change anything is only one question. I expect this case won’t get to trial because of appeals under this ruling. Not this year, anyway.

Politically it may spark even more interest in defeating Trump. The reaction to the debate critique, especially the $33 million plus Biden raised in three days gives me hope voters see more than optics here (I also doubt that many people watched all 90 minutes; even more didn’t watch at all). Trump will crow he now has immunity. You think that won’t worry more than a few people who may pay no attention to this ruling or its details? The debate was supposed to be a plus for Trump (else why ask Biden to withdraw?). But a “success” for Trump seems to have rallied support to Biden.

An emboldened Trump is good for Biden; however bad this ruling is.