Correlation = Causation

When confronted with crisis, both stumbled. Trump’s failure to take COVID seriously doomed his re-election. Biden’s failure to deliver on return to normal + his deliberative style when fast action is wanted/warranted, has dragged his admin down.

— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) July 8, 2022

We know as much about how life began as we know what "doomed" Trump's re-election. Amy Walter has no idea either, but it's the accepted narrative, so she's safe to employ it.

I'm reminded of my Bankruptcy professor (who was also a sitting Bankruptcy Judge) describing the three types of real estate appraisals (this was during the S&L collapse and the collapse of real estate speculation in Texas, in the '80's).  There were three types, he said:

1) Windshield (as in, property seen through one)

2) Wild-ass (as in grabbing, or just being); and

3)  HellifIknow, but it looks good on paper!

Most political punditry is of the latter type, though the first two work just as well.  All three categories reflect an increasing distance from the subject under "analysis."  I mean, what are the analytical tools Ms. Walter is using to reach her conclusions?  Other than "correlation is good enough for causation," I mean.