Victory?

Emerging reports of no American or Iraqi casualties in the Iranian missile attack bring welcome news. We cannot presume this is a one-time event given Iran’s history. It’s a moment to slow down, buy time, and be deliberative on next steps. Perhaps something we can all agree on. https://t.co/nYUyAzjf6H

— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) January 8, 2020

Probably not because Iran doesn't have the shiny military technology of the U.S.

“Well, in fact, the most hopeful thing I heard was a couple of hours ago from a well-placed source who can’t be identified, that their early initial assessment — and, again, this was in nighttime and not with a formal BDA or battle damage assessment — was that Iran had deliberately missed,” Mitchell reported.

“That they have such highly precise missiles — we know they do, they were able to take out the major Aramco oil field in September in Saudi Arabia — we know that they can do this if they really want to, and they apparently, according to this early report, they may have hit a not populated part of the al-Asad base and, in Arbil, landed in a field,” she reported.

Or because Iran wanted to hurt anybody in Iraq:

In its first statement hours later, premier Adel Abdel Mahdi’s office said it had been warned.

“We received an official verbal message from the Islamic Republic of Iran that the Iranian response to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani had begun or would begin shortly, and that the strike would be limited to where the US military was located in Iraq without specifying the locations,” it said.

The prime minister’s office said it was simultaneously contacted by the US, as the missiles slammed into the Ain al-Asad base in western Iraq and Harir further north.

“We immediately warned Iraqi military commanders to take the necessary precautions,” it said, adding that no Iraqi forces had been hurt in the attack.

“Iraq rejects any violation of its sovereignty and attacks on its territory,” the premier’s office added, without specifically condemning the missile strikes.

It said Abdel Mahdi was in talks with domestic and foreign partners to prevent an “open war.”

Everything, of course, is subject to analysis:

I keep getting questions about whether in technical terms Iran actually could have *intentionally* not killed any Americans in the strike. In other words, were they lucky or good? Some of both I think, but it wasn’t all luck & that tells us something about Iranian intentions. 1/ https://t.co/51x9gNf9YN

— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) January 8, 2020

Let’s start out by admitting that we simply don’t know the real-world CEP of Iran’s ballistic missiles. CEP = circular error probable, a radius within which 50% of launches will fall. A lower CEP means a missile is more accurate. CEP depends on many factors. 2/

— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) January 8, 2020

We do know Iran has been seeking to improve its ballistic missile accuracy for years through better guidance systems. Nights like last night are why. More accurate ballistic missiles means you can use them with more discrimination, for signaling or military purposes. 3/

— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) January 8, 2020

But Iran has now declared they are satisfied:

Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.

We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.

— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 8, 2020

So is that it?  I guess we have to wait and see what Trump says this morning.