“Because It Is Right Near The Iranian Shoreline”

"The U.S. Navy’s very recent decommissioning of an entire class of minesweepers, without an effective ready replacement, makes an already precarious situation worse."

Thoughtful expert analysis by Prof @marknevitt, former US Navy Commanderhttps://t.co/KE9LIUSktB

— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) March 15, 2026

While there are reports of 2,500 U.S. Marines deploying to the region, a successful occupation of the southern tip of Iran bordering the Strait will not by itself immunize shipping from threats. And such an amphibious landing would be incredibly dangerous. Iran has already demonstrated the capacity to launch Shaheed drones — with a range of 1,000 miles — from virtually anywhere in Iran. The drone threat makes it difficult — if not impossible — to guarantee safe passage through the Strait within the foreseeable future.

IOW, as the SOE said today, Iran is within 1000 miles of the Strait.

And Trump says once the war ends, everything goes back to normal immediately. Or…not.

Once an area has been mined, it is often virtually impossible to guarantee that it has been fully demined. An oil tanker explosion with a naval mine would be an environmental disaster that would further halt shipping. Following the armed conflict, Iran would have an affirmative obligation under Hague VIII to remove its own mines. Still, commercial shippers would have to trust Iran that this has taken place. And removing mines is notoriously difficult. Since 1997, a multinational naval mine clearance and ordnance disposal operation has been conducted in the Baltic Sea to clear and destroy an estimated 160,000 mines from the First and Second World Wars, and just 20% have been removed or destroyed.

Can the Navy protect ships in the 20 mile wide strait?

Yes, but transiting remains highly hazardous, and the U.S. Navy lacks the capacity to conduct counter–mine operations quickly and expeditiously. During the Tanker Wars in the late 1980s, U.S. Navy warships escorted civilian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, with many Kuwaiti vessels reflagged as American vessels. The U.S. Navy has warships and other assets in the region that could assist with this mission, but the Navy is far smaller than the 1980s Navy with the retirement of the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates. Quantity has its own quality, and escorting civilian tankers would both expose the Navy warships to Iranian naval mines and projectiles while taking the warships away from other potentially critical missions. Unilateral, U.S.-only escort is not a viable option at this time. The United States should lay the groundwork to bring in other nations for a broader multinational escort initiative, an effort that President Trump has started to undertake at least in the past 24 hours. But this, too, will be challenging. Japan, a longstanding U.S. ally, relies on the Middle East for 95% of its oil. Japanese leaders have urged caution following Trump’s request to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, stating that such a deployment faces an “extremely high hurdle.”

And so far, the rest of the world seems to agree with Japan. Maybe because you can make it this simple:

Oh, you don't say. https://t.co/HUQlVi4VgY

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) March 16, 2026

So Trump ranted about the Supreme Court last night, huh? And threatened NATO again?

“Join my pointless war of choice or else”

This is why appeasing a malignant narcissist never works. He will always want more. https://t.co/KeiXpaWTWU pic.twitter.com/sU4eSC1DPf

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) March 16, 2026

I can’t imagine why…. 🤔