What Reality Does to People

In which Brian Kilmeade gets increasingly agitated as Cedric Richmond explains that the secret Trump voter probably isn't much of a thing.

It is pretty early to be getting this desperate. pic.twitter.com/I4YwiHDfCW

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) July 16, 2020

Let's just lay this on the table so we can examine it:

In an interview with Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), the co-chairman of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign, “Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade asked him if he was worried about getting swamped by Trump voters who refuse to talk with pollsters, but who will nonetheless come out in droves for him on election day.

Richmond responded by throwing this claim right back in his face.

“No, I think the pressure and the atmosphere of the Republican Party these days, there are probably more secret Biden voters,” he said. “Republicans are scared to stand up to this president! They don’t want to be isolated, they don’t want to be picked on and bullied if they’re not with this president, just like congressmen and senators are because when they do, they get smacked down on Twitter.”

Richmond went on to predict that many GOP voters were planning to vote for Biden but were waiting for the fall to show their intentions.

“I didn’t know you were speaking for Republicans and already knew their mindset,” an annoyed Kilmeade replied. “He has 92 percent Republican support!”

You know how Trump keep saying so much testing is why we have so many covid-19 cases?  This is akin to that kind of reasoning, but with even more innumeracy!

Start at the end and work up:  Kilmead bases his argument on poll numbers, so he's accepting those as a valid reflection of reality (that can always be argued, but not when you're basing your argument on them).  92%, 96% (Trump's favorite imaginary number), 81% (the latest polling) support in the GOP, whichever you choose:  how do you square that with "Trump voters who refuse to talk with pollsters"?  Is Trump's support among GOP voters 120%?  130%?  Higher?

Biden's support among Democrats tops 90% in recent polling.  Does this mean his support is "fake"?  Or is it higher than that, too, but Democratic voters also "refuse to talk with pollsters"?

I'm not even saying the premise here is false.  I screen my calls; if it's a number I don't know, I don't answer.  I'm quite sure I get calls from pollsters (once in a blue moon) that I "refuse to talk" to.  Maybe it skews a poll or two; but I doubt it.  But Kilmeade is making just a fundamentally innumerate argument.  Either the poll numbers are true and they can be trusted; or they aren't, and we don't really know anything about November.  I'm comfortable with the latter conclusion, because it means Biden voters can't rest on their laurels.  But Kilmeade is in a round room looking desperately for the corner.

It's kinda sad, really.