‘Til It’s Over

Daily Early in-person - Clark County, NV
10/23/2024 (SOS)

Dem 6,737 (28.4%)
Rep 11,036 (46.6%) +4,299
Other 5,923 (25.0%)

Total 23,696

Another good day of EIP for Reps, but about 1k less on the margin than yesterday.

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) October 24, 2024

Republicans for Harris.

Liz Cheney.

Haley Voters For Harris 

North Carolina has completed one week of early in-person voting, and we have a new party leader in overall turnout.

🔴Republicans - 686,624
🔵Democrats - 683,301
🟡Others - 638,268

This marks our third "flip" since Democrats opened early voting with a slight lead; Republicans… pic.twitter.com/GBDXzGZMAc

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 24, 2024

But everyone voting is voting strictly along party lines.

The firewalls in MI and PA seem to be doing well so far. WI needs more data.

GA and NC are wild cards. Crazy high turnout but party registration making it confusing.

AZ and NV looking less favorable so far for Harris. https://t.co/8pcGuDkys2

— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) October 24, 2024

Don’t read the entrails of turnout, either.

EXCLUSIVE: two sources with direct knowledge of the campaign’s thinking say that the election will ultimately come down to turnout. https://t.co/1ervpQdQ6g

— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) October 24, 2024

Yes, it will. But turnout can only be assessed in the vote count. And we won’t have that until voting is over.

Any other expectation is just the Trump/MAGA expectation: that only chosen polls matter. Or worse: why bother, Trump has already won. 

I just saw Nate Silver say his “gut” tells him Trump is going to win. How are you a statistician but you’re using a gut feeling to predict an election?

— chris evans (@notcapnamerica) October 24, 2024

None. Zippo. Zilch. https://t.co/rGevizUtw7

— Bradley P. Moss (@BradMossEsq) October 24, 2024

Reading turnout is the same game as reading polls. Turnout is concrete, but you have no idea what it means. 

Run through the tape. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.