Sunday, January 04, 2026

It’s The 1950’s

 … and Trump thinks that worked once, it’ll work again.

"Venezuela, right now, is a dead country," Trump said. "We have to bring it back. We're going to have to have big investments from the oil companies to rebuild the infrastructure."

"The oil companies are ready to go," Trump continued. "They're going to go in. They're going to build the infrastructure. We built it to start off with many years ago. They took it away. You can't do that."
Oil being produced by multinationals = “ours”?
Marco Rubio says it’s alright, they have two court orders. There’s a distributive principle because it’s all South American countries, right? Or is it an associative principle I’m thinking of….? A reminder that removal by the Senate on an impeachment charge requires a 2/3rds vote. Which is why elections matter. And also, that it’s the 1950’s all over again, only this time the hemisphere is all Puerto Rico, all the time. Or they want it to be. You thought I was exaggerating. From your lips to God's ear. Speaking of which:
It is with deep concern that I am following the developments in Venezuela. The good of the beloved Venezuelan people must prevail over every other consideration. This must lead to the overcoming of violence, and to the pursuit of paths of justice and peace. I pray for all this, and I invite you to pray too, entrusting our prayer to the intercession of Our Lady of Coromoto, and to Saints José Gregorio Hernández and Carmen Rendiles. #PrayTogether
Now let me close with something long and tedious and therefore essential. And:
As a heavy oil expert, with 18 patents in heavy oil production technology development and optimizations, and prior experience as a senior technical SME at a supermajor U.S. oil company that Venezuela still owes money to….I wanted to correct some of the misguided takes circulating on X.

While Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment. With the next budget season not arriving until Q3, U.S. producers are currently committed to ongoing projects and contractual obligations. Venezuela's oil faces uniquely difficult geology, low ultimate recovery rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. From my work alongside Venezuelans who actually operated projects there, many cited rampant corruption and logistical nightmares as reasons they left the country. At current oil prices, the massive capital required for meaningful production growth simply isn't justified—one leading expert and good friend, estimates it would take at least 3 years to double output, adding about 1 million bbl/d… so not by next week….Unlike Canada, Venezuela has zero SAGD projects ZERO !!; any greenfield heavy oil development there would require at least $30,000 per flowing barrel, meaning roughly $1 billion!! for every 30,000 bbl/d increment achievable in perhaps three years. They mainly produce cold production, which is cheaper I’ll admit!! But with slower flow rates and rely on diluents and polymers which are enhanced recoveries ( EOR) that require capital and supply of these chemicals and infrastructure… more money. Finally, people seem to overlook the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), which already processes around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada (see pic specifically on 🇨🇦) Venezuela lacks the logistical or practical means to displace that supply. Hope this clarifies things for everyone and helps the understanding of this volatile situation. Thx 🫡🪒
Certainly nothing on Twitter should be taken as the truth sent from above. But Trump is a blithering buffoon with no expertise on any subject. And I’ve been around people in the oil business since I was five.  I have no expertise either, but the points above conform to my understanding of the industry (the way Trump uses “Drill, Baby, Drill” the way only someone who thinks the world is a cartoon does).  It sounds right, IOW. It may not be the last word. But even as POTUS, Trump has flushed his “benefit of the doubt” down the toilet.  🚽 Especially since he used the military to extradite Maduro, and turned that into a coup d’état.
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1 comment:

  1. The Thought Criminal4:47 AM

    The United States is a lawless country and a danger to every other one with something the oligarchs want to grab. And all of that is happening under what passes as the rule of law in the country, that is what passes in reality not in the make believe which is the letter of the law.

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