Pretty Much What The Exxon CEO Was Talking About I’m

The crackdowns are intensifying. The Maduro regime remains in power, with Delcy Rodríguez in command. This was never about democracy or protecting the people of Venezuela. They continue to live in danger and fear while Trump cuts deals with the regime to seize their oil. https://t.co/NEJ8GUWyU1

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) January 10, 2026

NEW: The US State Department is urging all American citizens to immediately leave Venezuela.

It says armed militias (known as colectivos) are now searching for evidence of US citizenship or support at roadblocks pic.twitter.com/BVx4a9cTe3

— Carl Nasman (@CarlNasman) January 10, 2026

But the oil majors can still “deal with Trump,” right? They just can’t send any foreign personnel, is all.

So how is Trump going to cut deals with the regime to steal their oil? 

The US this week has seized several oil tankers carrying sanctioned crude. American officials have said they are working to set up a sales process, which would deposit money raised into US-controlled accounts.

"We are open for business," Trump said.

On Friday, Trump signed an executive order that seeks to prohibit US courts from seizing revenue that the US collects from Venezuelan oil and holds in American Treasury accounts.

Any court attempt to access those funds would interfere with US foreign relations and international goodwill, the executive order states.

"President Trump is preventing the seizure of Venezuelan oil revenue that could undermine critical US efforts to ensure economic and political stability in Venezuela," the White House wrote in a fact sheet about the order.

Sure. That’ll work. Or get Vance to say the government has “absolute immunity.”

Venezuela's oil production has been hit in recent decades by disinvestment and mismanagement - as well as US sanctions. At roughly one million barrels per day, the country accounts for less than 1% of global supply.

Chevron, which accounts for about a fifth of the country's output, said it expected to bolster its production, building on its current presence, while Exxon said it was working to send in a technical team to assess the situation in the coming weeks.

I suspect the news from the State Department is going to change Exxon's plans.

But analysts say meaningfully increasing production would take significant effort.

"They are being as polite as humanly possible, and being as supportive as they can, without committing actual dollars," said David Goldwyn, president of the energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies and former US state department special envoy for international energy affairs.

Exxon and Shell are "not going to invest single-digit billions of dollars, much less tens of billions of dollars", without physical security, legal certainty and a competitive fiscal framework, Goldwyn said.

"It's not really welcome from an industry point of view," he said. "The conditions are just not right."

While smaller companies might be more eager to jump in and help boost Venezuela's oil production over the next year, he said those investments would likely hover in the $50m range - far from the "fantastical" $100bn figure that Trump has floated.

Rystad Energy estimates it would take $8bn to $9bn in new investments per year for production to triple by 2040.

Trump's suggested $100bn of investment into Venezuela could have a major impact on production - if it were to materialise, said the firm's chief economist, Claudio Galimberti.

He said companies would only be likely to invest on that scale with subsidies - and political stability. Americans should not expect the situation in Venezuela to lower oil prices anytime soon, he added.

"It's going to be difficult to see big commitments before we have a fully stabilised political situation and that is anybody's guess when that happens," he said.

Not soon, anyway. I thought Trump was in charge of Venezuela?

Trump is a fucking idiot.