Sunday, January 04, 2026

Who’s On First?

I’m not a Venezuela expert so I’ll leave that to folks who actually are like my @AtlanticCouncil friend and colleague @jmarczak . But I do know about energy markets and U.S. foreign policy.

Venezuelan oil reserves are significant, 17-18% of world total, but its supply is at best 1-1.5% of global production. For those yelling this is about oil, no it’s not. It’s a secondary benefit the U.S. will leverage and I have no doubt President Thump was serious in his comments about US companies going in and benefiting from the supply. But Venezuelan oil likely wasn’t the primary motivating factor here.

Fundamentally this is about President Trump following through on his views that the U.S. should undertake hemispheric hegemony. The U.S. should be the dominant country in the region and it should be free from PRC, Russia, Cuban, Iranian influence. America First requires American dominance in the western hemisphere. Does POTUS really believe Venezuela is a prime drug supplier of drugs? Maybe, maybe not. But this is more Monroe Doctrine vice War Against Drugs.
Yeah, about that:
Venezuela's Supreme Court Constitutional Chamber announces that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez shall assume and exercise, in the capacity of an interim official, all the powers, duties, and faculties inherent to the office of president of the republic. http://www.correodelorinoco.gob.ve/tsj-designa-a-delcy-rodriguez-como-encargada-de-la-presidencia-de-la-republica/
Remain calm, all is well. Maybe the administration had better tell Venezuela it no longer has a government.
In the press conference, Trump called Machado “a very nice woman” but said that she doesn’t have the “respect within the country” to lead. Instead, he said, the U.S. would “run” Venezuela in the immediate term, as part of a “group” that also apparently included U.S. oil companies.

They will have to contend with Maduro’s senior officials, who remain largely in place. They include the hard-line military chief General Vladimir Padrino López; Diosdado Cabello, the equally hard-line interior minister; and Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, a tough-minded operator.

All have denounced Maduro’s abduction. Padrino, in a press conference of his own, denounced “the most criminal military aggression” and declared the activation of a national-defense plan, including widespread mobilization of Venezuelan forces on land, sea, and air. Apparently in response, Trump said that the U.S. was prepared to mount a second military intervention
There is a reason for haste:
Administration officials have told oil executives in recent weeks that if they want compensation for their rigs, pipelines and other seized property, then they must be prepared to go back into Venezuela now and invest heavily in reviving its shattered petroleum industry, two people familiar with the administration’s outreach told POLITICO on Saturday. The outlook for Venezuela’s shattered oil infrastructure is one of the major questions following the U.S. military action that captured leader Nicolás Maduro.

But people in the industry said the administration’s message has left them still leery about the difficulty of rebuilding decayed oil fields in a country where it’s not even clear who will lead the country for the foreseeable future.

“They’re saying, ‘you gotta go in if you want to play and get reimbursed,’” said one industry official familiar with the conversations.

The offer has been on the table for the last 10 days, the person said. “But the infrastructure currently there is so dilapidated that no one at these companies can adequately assess what is needed to make it operable.”
And then there’s the question of who’s in charge. Not exactly inspiring confidence that we know who’s in charge here.
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