Sure Enough, It Gets Worse

The fact that this is a real headline in my lifetime is unfuckingbelievable. https://t.co/mjl3n2GZ3i

— Mattie Timmer (@MattieTimmer) October 20, 2024

Everyone worries what happens if Trump loses and refuses. But the same isn’t said about Trump winning and then Vance deposing him under the 25th. The argument is that it is scarier to imagine Vance behind the resolute desk, than for Trump to be there. It’s an interesting political argument, but the real problem is: the 25th doesn’t work that way.

For the simple reason that removal of a President is governed by section 4 of Article. II. The 25th doesn’t modify that; it just provides a mechanism to temporarily replace the sitting President.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President. Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

This would be the real nightmare scenario. If Vance gets the Cabinet to back his play, Trump is sidelined. If Trump says “I’m not dead yet!,” the ball’s in Vance’s court. If he’s serious about it, the Congress has to decide whether we have a President, or an Acting President.

Considering the Congress has never removed a sitting President via impeachment, what does Congress do with this dilemma? A VP who has effectively moved against the POTUS, but who can’t himself be sidelined and likely won’t be impeached (we’ve never done that before, either). Sure, the POTUS can exile him to the Naval Observatory for the duration, but what about the cabinet? Mass firings that make the Saturday Night Massacre look like a mild turnover of personnel?

This would be the true constitutional crisis you’ve heard so much about.

And what happens if Congress makes Vance Acting President? What legitimacy does he have? What’s the retaliation against Congress? You know that’s what Congress would be worried about.

This is the “Constitutional crisis” we’re always being warned about. The least likely outcome is that Vance completes Trump’s term quickly and seamlessly. The most likely is we are plunged into a crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen since Nixon was forced to resign, only with less public support for his removal from office powers (worse, because he wouldn’t be removed, simply sidelined). Vance would only be legitimate insofar as Congress said so. Trump’s suspension would be the act of Democrats and Commies and fascists ( I know, but tell me I’m wrong) 

Trump would still be upstairs in the White House…or would he be removed to the Observatory? You see how this quickly becomes, er…messy. Can Vance be acting POTUS from outside the White House? Does he want to be? He would presumably have the authority to displace Trump; but how ugly would that be?

Truth be told, the 25th doesn’t really imagine this kind of coup. It envisions a President who is absolutely incapacitated and incapable. Basically, a President confined to a hospital bed, a la Wilson. It tacitly contemplates a POTUS who is a raving lunatic, but then the Constitution doesn’t envision the raving lunatic being elected. I mean, do you really imagine Trump changes so much after inauguration? Unless he has a stroke or other debilitating medical crisis, how does Vance challenge Trump? For seeking a 20% tariff? Rounding up whoever he considers an “immigrant”? Isn’t that what Congress is for? (Congress could revoke his authority to impose tariffs; overrule his actions with legislation; and defund any effort at mass deportation, which would certainly undermine the economy and national security.)

The truth is, Kamala Harris could have a stroke or a serious heart attack/other medical crisis. I’m not saying she will, but who knows the future? The usual speculation assumes Trump is erratic, not incapacitated.  But he’s already erratic, and arguably incapable. He’s already stumbling mentally as badly as Biden did in the debate. Trump is actually worse, but if that’s not a barrier to his election….

Trump wouldn’t really be different from the guy who ran in 2016 (aside from mental acuity, little else has changed in 8 years). So if he wins, his decline has been accepted. No matter how much worse he gets, so long as he can speak, he’d insist he was POTUS and could do the job. There would hardly be a public consensus that Trump was unfit.

The nightmare scenario is Trump being elected outright. Either Vance would eventually move to remove him for incompetence; or he’d never do so. Either scenario is a nightmare compounding the nightmare.