Tuesday, September 01, 2026

Speculation v Reality

I blame the lack of AI centers.
In an opinion granting a preliminary injunction as the underlying lawsuit continues, Cooper called the changes "likely arbitrary and capricious" and found the government had failed to provide adequate evidence for its policy.

"He wrote that grant solicitations for the program '(remarkably) reference public health studies that appear either not to exist or not to support the propositions for which they are cited — a hallmark of AI-generated citations,"" the Post is reporting, adding that, of the seven cited articles, two appeared to be "entirely made up and three others did not exist in the journals they were attributed to."

This is not the first time Kennedy has faced humiliation over AI-generated falsehoods.

Last year, The Washington Post revealed that citations in the White House's sweeping "MAHA Report" had also been AI-generated, producing garbled references and invented studies.
And Grok is reportedly still generating kiddie porn, which is something else we can’t farm out to the Chinese. 🀷‍♀️

You know, since Jules Verne, science fiction has predicted the future world, and usually made it a scary place in the present.  And yet science fiction never predicts things like data centers generating significant noise, guzzling water and burning fossil fuels while taking up acres of land; or generating porn and slop for the internet (which even William Gibson didn’t get right. The world on the internet is an infinitely more mundane place than “Neuromancer.”). Or just tech bros in general; although, to be fair, Heinlein pretty much saw that one coming. But he was sure the technology would be an unalloyed good. Ballard got closer to reality with “The Subliminal Man.” (Neither future happened, though Facebook did settle a lawsuit on unduly and improperly influencing adolescents. Nobody foresaw Facebook, either. Or how very, very lonely we would be. I think Wendell Berry touched on that one, but not via “speculative fiction.”)

But what writer ever imagined a psychotic POTUS arbitrarily changing the names of bodies of water, and the companies generating electronic maps (who saw those coming? Or GPS?) altering those names because the mad POTUS said so?

Or, you know, using AI to generate fake medical studies and fake case law? And present those to courts, or as government reports? Reality always beggars imagination.πŸ’­ 
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“With Almost Total Control Of The Hormuz Strait”

"And when is somebody going to solve this problem for me?”

And “almost total control”? Isn’t that like “a little bit pregnant”? πŸ«ƒ 

The pressure of the job is getting to him.
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The Death Of Wendell Berry Is Announced

“The modern urban‐industrial society is based on a series of radical disconnections between body and soul, husband and wife, marriage and community, community and the earth,” he wrote. “At each of these points of disconnection the collaboration of corporation, government, and experts sets up a profit‐making enterprise that results in the further dismemberment and impoverishment of the Creation.”
His vision, his writings, were truly radical. He taught me to understand racism in America as our “hidden wound.” Not because we had lost sight of it, but because we still hide it from ourselves.

I’ve got to go pull all his books off my shelves and re-read them….
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Sleepy Trump

And nobody told Trump?
“Trump was surprised when Driscoll told him how many generals and other top officers had been fired, pushed out, or passed over for promotion under Hegseth,” one person familiar with their White House conversation told the outlet.
...is leading this party:
McClintock: There’s only way to prosper in a capitalist society. You need to figure out what someone else needs and get it for them better than they can get it for themselves. It might mean mowing their lawn or brain surgery—whatever it is, you have to help your neighbor.

Socialism is the opposite. If I take a dollar from Peter and give it to Paul I've helped Paul in the amount of $1 and I've hurt Peter by that very same amount. But what I've really done is to rob both of them of $1 of incentive of helping each other.

Socialism sucks.
Peter and Paul?
42 They devoted themselves to the apostles’ teaching and to fellowship, to the breaking of bread and to prayer. 43 Everyone was filled with awe at the many wonders and signs performed by the apostles. 44 All the believers were together and had everything in common. 45 They sold property and possessions to give to anyone who had need.

—Acts 2:42-45

That sucks, right ?

...is a confession. Trump came to Houston for a fundraiser for Paxton. The money ended up going to the RNC. Like this? Or Trump’s way: calling Talarico “Talafreako” and “Alfred E. Neuman”?
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Fahrenheit 451

The Mechanical Hound slept but did not sleep, lived but did not live in its gently humming, gently vibrating, softly illuminated kennel back in a dark corner of the firehouse. The dim light of one in the morning, the moonlight from the open sky framed through the great window, touched here and there on the brass and copper and the steel of the faintly trembiling beast. Light flickered on bits of ruby glass and on sensitive capillary hairs in the nylon-brushed nostrils of the creature that quivered gently, gently, its eight legs spidered under it on rubber-padded paws.

...

Nights when things got dull, which was every night, the men slid down the brass pole, and set the tickling combinations of the olfactory system of the Hound and let loose rats in the firehouse areaway, and sometimes chickens, and sometimes cats that would have to be drowned anyway, and there would be betting to see which of the cats or chickens or rats the Hound would seize first. The animals were turned loose. Three seconds later the game was done, the rat, cat, or chicken caught half across the areaway, gripped in gentling paws while a four-inch hollow steel needle plunged down from the proboscis of the Hound to inject massive jolts of morphine or procaine. The pawn was then tossed in the incinerator. A new game began.

--Ray Bradbury 

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You’ve Got To Be Kidding

It’s two months until Election Day. Here, try this instead: Or this:
On Monday, the average price of a gallon of diesel was $5.60, up about $1 from early July and almost $2 higher than a year ago. The all-time U.S. record $5.816 set in June 2022 is looming — and with U.S. inventories at their lowest-ever levels going into the peak diesel demand season, little relief is likely.

“That shortage will be acutely felt by the farmers during the harvest, and so the inflationary consequences can be greater at harvest time,” said Kevin Book, managing director at consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. At the same time, products will be on trucks headed to stores for the holidays, and many voters in places like Maine and Alaska will be preparing for winter by buying heating oil, which, like jet fuel, is similar to diesel.

“There is a very strong history of caring about heating oil ahead of elections,” Book added.
Or we can talk about young women: Still more winning friends and influencing people: One of three offices established in the Constitution, third in line of succession, chief official of a house of Congress charged with oversight of the entire administration: Who has apparently never heard Donald Trump say a word. While Shouty Grandpa chats with the voices in his head: Meanwhile, back in reality:
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Stop Me If You’ve Heard This One

20 hours earlier:
Trump had described a very different pool one day earlier, writing that "the Reflecting Pool is almost completely fixed," including its inflow and outflow pipes. Fewer than 20 hours separated that post from Acosta's video of an empty basin being torn up, according to the timestamps on both.
And then there was Venezuela: And the cold, wet slap of reality:
The fast phase is well rehabilitation, and it is fast precisely because it develops nothing. A workover cleans out an existing wellbore, replaces the downhole pump, restores lift and power, and turns a well that already produced back on. This is the entire reason output climbed from just under 1 million to roughly 1.25 million barrels a day, and it was led overwhelmingly by Chevron reactivating known wells after sanctions relief, not by rigs drilling new ones. Run the existing well stock through workovers with diluent flowing and output can plausibly climb toward 2 million barrels a day over two to three years, with diminishing returns as the best wells are worked first. None of that touches the 65 billion barrels; it recovers barrels that were already developed and then abandoned. The easy oil is close to back.

Beyond that, money doesn’t buy speed, because extra heavy production is a system and the system is broken in four specific places. Power comes first, because heavy oil lift, any thermal handling, and the upgraders are all electricity intensive, and Venezuela’s grid browns out; a well or an upgrader that trips every time the grid sags produces nothing, and restoring stable generation and transmission to the oil regions is measured in years. Diluent is second, and it is a physical hard stop rather than a preference, because Orinoco blend, the export grade known as Merey, is roughly 60% extra heavy crude cut with about 40% light diluent simply to become pumpable; every million barrels a day of Orinoco output therefore requires on the order of 400,000 barrels a day of naphtha or condensate, which is why the United States is currently shipping naphtha south, and why a diluent interruption does not slow production, it stops it. Third is the processing and midstream chain, the upgraders that convert extra heavy crude into synthetic crude, roughly 600,000 barrels a day of nameplate capacity that sits largely idle after years of deferred maintenance and needs full turnarounds, not a switch, to restart, alongside the pipelines and terminals that decayed with it. Fourth is human capital, because something on the order of 18,000 skilled workers left over the last decade, and reservoir management and heavy oil operations expertise does not return with a signing bonus; every repair above runs at the pace that trained crews and available equipment allow, which is why throwing capital at the problem past a point produces bottlenecks and inflation rather than barrels.

Only after that backbone is whole does new drilling meaningfully draw down the reserve, and here the Permian analogy that keeps getting invoked fails on a single point, that a Permian light sweet barrel flows and sells the day it is drilled, while an Orinoco barrel is not a product until the entire heavy oil chain has been wrapped around it. Recovery is the quiet killer, because cold production on extra heavy crude recovers only single digits to low teens as a percentage of the oil in place, so pulling the resource at meaningful rates eventually requires thermal recovery, steam projects that are among the most capital heavy and slowest to build assets in the industry. From a final investment decision to first oil on a new Orinoco project is three to five years in a functioning country and longer here, and ramping the belt to add millions of barrels is a ten to fifteen year, hundred billion dollar order program that only pencils while oil stays high enough to justify upgrading the crude. Producing the bulk of the 65 billion barrels is a multi decade exercise, which is exactly why the paperwork was written to run a hundred years.
The "65 billion barrels" probably doesn't exist, either:
The flow problem would be damning enough on its own, but the reserve figure underneath it is softer than the flow problem suggests, because the 65 billion, and the roughly 300 billion it belongs to, does not come from an independent count. It comes from the Venezuelan government and PDVSA, routed through OPEC, which does not audit what its members self report, and then republished by the EIA, which passes OPEC through; so the reassuring phrase “300 billion barrels, corroborated by the EIA” is not corroboration at all, it is a single self reported number handed down a chain that never verifies it. A fact check searching specifically for a transparent third party audit reconciling Venezuela’s proven reserves found that none exists.

The history is the tell. Venezuela’s proven reserves sat near 60 billion barrels through the 1980s and 1990s and around 77 to 80 billion by 2005, mostly conventional crude, which placed the country roughly eighth in the world. Then, between 2005 and 2011, the figure nearly quadrupled to almost 300 billion, with no major discoveries and no surge in production to justify it, when the Magna Reserva initiative under ChΓ‘vez reclassified Orinoco Belt extra heavy oil from resources into proved reserves; the transformation, as Robert Rapier has put it, was statistical rather than physical. High crude prices in 2007 supplied the accounting cover, and OPEC quota politics, in which quotas track reserves, supplied the incentive. The number rose because it was useful.

Set the independent work against it and the range is extraordinary, because three different numbers describe the same rock and none of them is interchangeable with the others. The United States Geological Survey, in a genuinely independent 2009 assessment, put more than 1 trillion barrels of heavy oil in place in the Orinoco Belt and a mean of 513 billion barrels technically recoverable, with a range of 380 to 652 billion; that is the largest figure in the debate and the one bulls reach for, yet the USGS labeled it technically recoverable and undiscovered resources, explicitly not proven, and technically recoverable ignores cost entirely. At the other end, Rystad Energy, the one major independent house that applies an economic screen rather than accepting the reclassification, estimates Venezuela’s economically recoverable oil at roughly 29 billion barrels, about one tenth of the official figure. So the same resource reads as more than a trillion barrels in place, about 513 billion recoverable at any cost, and perhaps 29 billion recoverable at prices that actually clear, and Venezuela’s headline 300 billion, with the deal’s 65 billion sitting inside it, is anchored to the inflated proven figure rather than to the 29 billion economic one. It is presented as the hard number and behaves like the soft one, swinging with the oil price because extra heavy economics do.
There is a great deal more there about why the reported reserves are not the actual reserves (which means the 65 billion barrels Trump thinks he has secured are non-existent. And may be another reason an Exxon, with the necessary resources, may not be interested in Venezuela, no matter what Trump says.). But what about the effect of Venezuelan crude on American oil prices.
That leaves the promise attached to the number, that it lowers gas prices long into the future, which fails for reasons that have little to do with the reserve at all. American pump prices are set by global crude, Brent linked, plus refining and distribution, so an increment of one to two million barrels a day phased in over a decade against roughly 103 million barrels a day of global demand is a rounding adjustment, not a lever, and it is a rounding adjustment that arrives years after any current price. It is worth being precise about the crude itself, because the reflex that Venezuelan oil has nothing to do with American gasoline is not quite right and the accurate version is stronger. Orinoco crude does become gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, but only inside complex refineries equipped with cokers and hydrocrackers, and fewer than half of United States refineries have a coker; the Gulf Coast complex was built over decades specifically to run heavy sour grades like this, with Valero, Chevron, PBF, Phillips 66, Marathon, and Exxon holding the coking capacity. The point is that Venezuelan heavy sour is a coker feedstock and a refinery margin story, competing with Canadian heavy and Mexican Maya for the same complex units, not a supply that moves the retail price of gasoline. And the dependency runs the other way besides, because the United States is already shipping more than 100,000 barrels a day of naphtha south to make Venezuelan crude pumpable at all, so the flow that supposedly rescues the American driver currently depends on the American refiner subsidizing it with diluent.

What the Deal Actually Buys

Strip the framing away and what remains is coherent, just not what was sold. The agreement is a real long cycle resource play and a genuine tailwind for Gulf Coast coker economics over a multi year horizon, and on that basis it is defensible. What it is not is a reserve doubling that lowers the price at the pump, because the reserve number is a stock that takes decades to convert to flow, that stock was inflated by decree rather than discovery, and the single independent house that applies an economic test finds roughly ninety percent of it evaporates. The flow available this decade is capped by power, diluent, upgraders, and people rather than by geology, the barrels that could actually move a United States pump price are five to fifteen years out, and under the governing definition of the word, the reserves at the center of the biggest oil deal in world history are not, in any auditable sense, proven. The oil under Venezuela is real enough; the 300 billion barrel reserve number the deal was sold on is not, and neither is any near term flow of it large enough to move a United States gas price.
This is why we can’t have nice things. This information is not unknown and unknowable. But it is to this government. It’s not just that the President is an idiot, but that the Administration is idiots all the way down. Honestly, it’s like watching children playing games on the playground. When I was young and playing games with imaginary guns or imaginary superpowers, I at least knew I was making things up.

Which leaves us with the important question: why are we believing these people? At all?
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How To Win Friends And Influence Texans

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These Are Now The Rules

McGowan: I’m so tired of it. Honest to God, the only reason we’re talking about Hasan Piker is because he’s on the left. We have had right-wing shock jocks for years. We had freaking Rush Limbaugh ringing a bell every time a gay person died of AIDS. We have Nick Fuentes dining at Mar-a-Lago after he says, “Your women are your body. My choice.” We’ve got these right-wing Christian zealots who said women shouldn’t vote and we’re nothing but vessels. They are all on the right wing, and we’re not asking every single Republican candidate and sitting person if they approve of them, if they should disown them

Rothman: I’m old enough to remember when every Republican in Congress was asked to respond to things Rush Limbaugh said.

McGowan: He got a Presidential Medal of Freedom from the president we have now, so please stop.
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Monday, August 31, 2026

Fairies At The Bottom Of The Garden

Reporter: Analysts predict it could take several years before the Venezuela oil—

Trump: It’s going to go fast.

Reporter: When?

Trump: Analysts predicted a thing like this could never happen, too. Nobody ever thought it was possible. Remember? Russia was there. China was there. They're not there anymore, are they? You know who is there? U.S.A.
He has no clue what the technical obstacles are; starting with the fact that none of the major oil companies are showing any interest in this “deal” Trump thinks he has.

The problems of safety and infrastructure in Venezuela still exist. Venezuelan law says this kind of deal cannot be made. Trump can say “We’re the U.S., we can do what we want,” but the U.S. doesn’t own an oil company, and Marines are not roughnecks and petroleum engineers. The government doesn’t own the equipment, the government doesn’t have the expertise. Some estimates say it would require $1 trillion of investment to begin extracting the oil. That means oil companies would have to invest it, or at least partner with the U.S. Government. And how does that work?

Not soon enough to start refilling the SPR.
Making Venezuela productive is a decade long process, at least. It will require a huge private investment, and probably using the U.S. military as security forces. The latter just to get the former to make the investment.  There are reasons Venezuela has been producing about half the amount of oil it produced before. Those reasons have not changed. One other wrinkle: the 65 million barrels may be a chimera, a figment of Hugo Chavez’s imagination. 

Chavez is the source of the claim that Venezuela has 300 million proven reserves. Is that true, or is it a lie? More reasonable estimates are that Venezuelan reserves are 1/10th of that, at the low end; 1/2 of that at the high end. So Trump may have made a deal for twice as much oil as Venezuela actually has available.

It wouldn’t really be a surprise, would it?
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Two Issues; Or, The Court Steps Aside

 Standing of the plaintiff (they probably don’t have it, although the court does not definitively rule on that issue, but they might as well do), and national security concerns establish grounds for irreparable harm on behalf of the government.

Declarations from the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Director of the United States Secret Service, and the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Secretary of the Army, among others, attesting to national security and other harms that would likely arise from enjoining a “single, coherent” project that cannot be readily cleaved into distinct below- and above-ground pieces. See, e.g., App. to Application 229a, 246a–247a, 397a–398a, 426a–429a, 431a–433a, 437a–439a. The Secretary of the Army, for ex- ample, represents that “[t]he height and mass” of the planned above-ground ballroom are “crucial” to shield the planned underground military installation “from kinetic impacts,” and that, without such height and mass, “engineers would need to dig impractically deep.” Id., at 247a.
No examination of the President's authority to order this construction, because:
Today, we do not pass upon the legality of the government’s East Wing project. We conclude only that, based on the submissions before us, the government is likely to prevail in showing that the Trust lacks Article III standing to challenge the project in federal court and that the remain- ing stay factors favor relief.
IOW, the plaintiffs lack standing, though the Court has not so ruled. And (I didn’t quote it), the Court ruled that the injunction against the executive exceeds the authority of the court (checks and balances and co-equal branches, etc.), and so the executive is likely to prevail at trial (the baseline requirement for upholding, or overturning, a preliminary injunction). No need to get to the question of presidential authority, or the @unitary executive.”  In essence, the ball is entirely in Congress’ court. 

The Court does not rule on the legality of the construction, which means the Court has not placed it beyond the power of Congress by inventing some new constitutional principle. Congress can order a halt to construction, can overrule the national security arguments, can even order a return to status quo ante and force the replacement of the East Wing. And based on this ruling, I think the Court is signaling it will keep the Art. III wing out of it.

I’m intentionally not commenting on the standing argument, or even the irreparable harm argument. I haven’t (yet) read the dissent (s?)*. I’m sure the opposing arguments are well reasoned and stated. I’m focusing on what happens now, because it seems to me the majority is stepping aside, rather than stepping in. Not every administrative action, especially in this Administration, should be solved a court order. Intentionally or not, this another brick in the wall for a Democratic victory in November. Because, as I’ve said before, it’s high time for Congress to reassert its Art. I authority. 

The Court just opened the door for them to do that.


*Interestingly, Roberts’ dissent raises the very issue that the majority refuses to address: that the law explicitly requires Congressional authority in order to build or destroy any building on White House grounds. The majority ducks that issue on the grounds that the lower court interfered with a co-equal branch of government. It’s not a good argument, and I think it does give the executive more power than it should have. But I’m happy for Congress to be forced to address this issue. So while I agree with Roberts, my argument stands.  For better or worse. (Roberts also rejects the majority’s standing argument. It’s really rather remarkable.) But I’m tired of Congress relying on Art. III to rein in Art. II, and pretending their only power is another time-wasting impeachment trial. Legislation is Congress’s primary authority.  And while the law already says Trump can’t do this, take away the money for this project, reassert authority over allocation of funds, and order the destruction of the ballroom. I think the majority is signaling they don’t want to get involved in this any further. That’s Congress’s cue. Time to step into the spotlight, and take that light away from Trump.
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Radically Dangerous Leftist Stuff

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The W of T is D ☠️, Part II

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The Wages Of Technology Is Death

New: The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved two transmission lines to ship electricity to the oil-and gas-producing west.

The decision came after an hours-long meeting in which landowners told commissioners the proposed transmission lines would harm their land, the surrounding natural resources and wildlife.
People first? Or business? The eternal struggle. Actually, when campaign ads come:
Earlier this week, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Gina Hinojosa released an ad blaming Abbott for the spread of Flock cameras across the state, calling the devices a method of “warrantless surveillance.” A social media post from Hinojosa asked Abbott to “stop turning Texas into a surveillance state.”
Abbott will make you believe a man in a wheelchair can tap dance. And Trump will make you believe an 80 year old man can live in an iron bubble.
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“War Crimes Against Humanity”?

Yes, every accusation is a confession (it’s easier to understand his blather that way), but this one really crosses over into sheer emotional derangement and just throwing words against the wall to see if they stick. The situation on both sides seems to be smaller than that.
Situation Update: U.S.-Iran (General Access)

The latest U.S.-Iran escalation appears increasingly centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has been using small boats to monitor and identify commercial vessels transiting the Strait using Omani waters for an undetermined period. The boats can blend into civilian maritime traffic, making them difficult to distinguish from ordinary vessels. This comes amid sporadic Iranian attacks and attempts to restrict ships transiting Hormuz without Iranian permission.

The U.S. then struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island after assessing they were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait.

Iran responded with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, with eight missiles reportedly intercepted. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was also reportedly targeted, though that remains unconfirmed.

The pattern suggests Iran is attempting to reassert control or disrupt maritime traffic through Hormuz, while the U.S. is acting to prevent Iran from closing or mining the waterway. Various reports indicate transits through the strait of Hormuz have declined.

What remains to be seen is whether the strikes from both sides tonight will continue in the coming days.
And Trump is living in a fantasy.
Just for clarification, U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s post on his Truth Social app about Kharg Island was more so a threat than anything else and not him claiming Kharg was struck. So far, lasts night’s round of reciprocal strikes has not expanded to include what we saw in the most recent two week bombing campaign about a month ago.
Not so much threat as wish fulfillment. And Trump’s reference to “war crimes” sounds like reporting military personnel seeking CO status over orders to attack civilians in violation of law finally penetrated his bubble. Signs point to “Yes.”
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Sunday, August 30, 2026

What A Difference Two Years Makes

Trump thinks it’s all done by fairies and magic. Don’t tell him there are no fairies. (And yes, Virginia, this is why Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but has never controlled the world oil market. Its oil is heavy and sour, and that means it’s even harder to get out of the ground, as well as refine into usable products.)

But don’t take Twitter’s word for it:
The Energy Dept. reported 294.1 million barrels in the SPR as of Aug. 20, including 192.3 million barrels of sour crude and 101.8 million barrels of sweet crude. That is only 41% of the reserve's authorized capacity.

Filling the SPR completely would therefore require roughly 420 million barrels. Even restoring it to the roughly 415 million barrels it held immediately before the March emergency release related to Trump's Iran war would require about 121 million barrels.

Essentially, that wouldn't even reverse the energy-security damage caused by the war. Blaming the Biden administration for the SPR's current state is disingenuous.
How rude!
The biggest catch is that the 65 billion barrels aren't sitting in a Venezuelan warehouse. They are simply proved reserves -- oil deposits that can be commercially recovered -- spread across 17 fields. Venezuela currently produces only about 1.25 million barrels per day despite possessing roughly 303 billion barrels of proved reserves, because years of underinvestment and infrastructure deterioration have crippled its petroleum industry. The new agreement targets production of more than 1.5 million barrels per day.

That means Trump's SPR announcement cannot instantly translate into hundreds of millions of barrels in U.S. salt caverns. Wells have to be drilled, equipment repaired, pipelines and export infrastructure restored, crude transported and the oil ultimately delivered to the Gulf Coast. That is a multiyear industrial project, not a weekend shipment.
No fairies?🧚  Nope. There is, however, science and law.
Venezuelan crude isn't necessarily the same oil already sitting in the SPR. The Energy Information Administration says most Venezuelan reserves are extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. Historically, Venezuela's conventional crude has also been heavy and sour.

The SPR, meanwhile, does not normally store heavy crude below 22.3 degrees API, and heavy oil presents additional storage and operational difficulties. Moreover, the reserve's existing inventory is primarily light and medium crude, so Trump can't simply mix Venezuelan heavy crude in for whatever the SPR needs. Specific grades would have to meet SPR specifications -- potentially through blending -- and the Energy Dept. retains the right to reject crude deemed incompatible with existing stocks.

Legal questions aren't trivial, either. Venezuela's constitution gives the state control over petroleum resources, although a January 2026 hydrocarbons-law reform opened the door to greater private participation. The agreement's precise legal structure remains unclear, creating potential challenges over sovereignty, contracts, and the authority of the interim Venezuelan government to make the kind of deal announced yesterday.
Don’t put it past Trump to order the Venezuelan crude be pumped into the caverns with the light crude. If it gets there before 2029.
Trump thinks a lot of things work that way. He’s going to think the SPR is up to a billion barrels; and that the FCC has stopped all polls that Trump doesn’t like.

And that everyone in America loves him, inflation is gone, and it really is a Golden Age. Right up until the morning after Election Day. Which will prove the process is rigged. Even if he never can prove it.
Little boy needs to feel special.
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This Is Not A Bench Trial

A) Paxton never made that kind of money.

B) He’s been the Texas Attorney General since 2015. As his next explanation says πŸ‘‡, that’s a full time job.

C) He didn’t buy 15 houses 11 years ago.
Ken Paxton recently bought three condominiums at a luxury resort in Utah, a set of purchases that offered fresh insight into his wealth amid his run for Senate.

The properties, along with a dozen others owned by Paxton, are at issue in his ongoing divorce negotiations with his wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, who has accused him of adultery.

Mr. Paxton, 63, purchased the condos, worth a total of $1.6 million, in February, according to local property records, and transferred them to his blind trust. On the deeds, Paxton listed his address as a Dallas-area home. Police records indicate a woman who is not his wife lives there. Paxton, who has been photographed vacationing with the woman, has not directly addressed the relationship.

Public records reviewed by The Times show Mr. Paxton, his blind trust and another family trust now own at least 15 properties worth around $9 million, including a luxury cabin in Oklahoma, three homes in Florida and a plot of land in Hawaii.

Mr. Paxton’s expanding real estate portfolio has raised questions in the past about how he has amassed his wealth, despite his $153,000 salary as attorney general. Both Mr. Talarico and Mr. Paxton’s opponent in the Republican primary, Senator John Cornyn, have suggested Mr. Paxton has used his public role to benefit himself. Mr. Talarico has disclosed one property on his state and federal filings, as well as an annual salary of less than $100,000.
Paxton owned more than a few properties prior to his impeachment trial. He out his mistress in one of them, which was part of the basis of the impeachment. One begins to see why Paxton ran away from these questions for several months. He probably shouldn’t have stopped doing that.
Ken Paxton when asked by a Fox host about his 3 primary residences (out of his 15 homes). This should clear it up! “Yeah. So in Texas, the Constitution used to require that you, if you're a statewide officeholder, you have to move to the capital. So I used to live in Collin County. I had when I became attorney general, I bought a condo in Austin so that I could live in the capital pursuant to what the Constitution required. Well, then my wife became a state senator. She wanted to buy a house, and by the way, that became my primary residence because it was required by the Constitution. So, when we bought a new house, we moved our primary residence to – to a house. So that was both were dictated by the Constitution, and then they changed the Constitution. They got rid of that requirement that you have as a statewide officer that you have to have a residence, or you have to live, whatever that means, in – in Austin. And so when that happened, I moved back to Collin County. So this idea that somehow that's fraudulent, they of course aren't following Texas law. They don't real – either don't realize or they're being deceptive about what was required under the Texas Constitution that was changed. So this this is just a con job by James Talarico again because he doesn't want you to know that he's a radical leftist…"
Did you get all that? Paxton and the Texas Constitution and his wife (“Biblical Grounds”!) adds up to…Talarico is a radical leftist.
Talarico: My faith is central in my public service, and if you go back and read the New Testament, even if you’re not a Christian, even if you’re not religious, go back and see what Jesus spends most of his time doing. It’s not preaching, it’s not teaching. It’s healing. It’s healing people.

And that is what we are called to do, whether you’re religious or not, is ensure—ensure that our neighbors have the care that they need. And that is, that is gonna be the end result of this plan and the other health care policies that we’re gonna fight for in Washington: saving the lives of our neighbors, bringing down these costs for all of us so that we can afford to get by in this economy, so we can afford to fulfill our God-given potential.

That is the end goal. That is our North Star.
Yeah. That guy. Although, to be fair, compared to Paxton, Jesus of Nazareth is a radical leftist. Although, caring about your neighbor is a Texas value….

As for that “explanation” about why Paxton has more than one primary residence (nobody really cares, but since Trump brought it up (ETTD)…), the old adage still holds: if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

I mean, I’m a Texas lawyer, and that explanation was still one I wouldn’t offer in a bench trial.
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Or: A Very Small Child, Who Has No Business Holding Public Office

Or a toddler, who we’ve handed a shotgun. Except this shotgun is not loaded.

But again, it’s the POTUS. So attention must be paid. But attention should not be confused with deference. Two conditions that often appear alike.

He’s still a toddler, after all.
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MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Yeah, about that:
The Department of War has confirmed that at least seven U.S. military commissaries have reported refrigeration problems this week, including facilities at Fort Irwin, Holloman AFB, Naval Station Newport, Little Rock AFB, F.E. Warren AFB, Robins AFB and Fort Huachuca. The below photos were posted by Fort Irwin to social media.

The disruptions have resulted in some stores restricting sales to dry goods, while refrigerated and frozen products have been removed or discarded. Fort Huachuca reported that all frozen food was spoiled after freezers entered defrost mode.

DoW says the Defense Commissary Agency is moving products to alternate temperature-controlled locations and taking precautions to prevent further losses and ensure food safety.

The cause remains unknown. Some online speculation has suggested a coordinated cyberattack or deliberate disruption of network connected refrigeration systems, but there is currently no official evidence presented in the article supporting that explanation. DoD specifically declined to speculate on the cause or say whether the outages are being investigated as a connected incident.
SNAFU
According the Washington Post, citing people speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the classified nature of the leak, in the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB), a bi-monthly briefing given by top commanders to the Secretary of Defense, top U.S. military decision-makers warned against renewed strikes against Iran and a prolonging of the largely stalemated conflict/negotiation process.

Our next four posts will detail further what recommendations were given, concerns raised, and the updates on force posture.
FUBAR.
Per the Washington Post report on the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB) leak, the Navy has arguably been beggared the most out of all the branches during operations against Iran and subsequent blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Per the report, Pacific Command (PACOM) Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo “disagreed with the level of support he was ordered to continually provide, including an aircraft carrier strike group and naval destroyers, those familiar with the assessment said.”

As reports abound of conditions aboard vessels committed to operations in the Central Command (CENTCOM) AOR, per the article on the SDOB, vessels are at least slated to stay in theater until September, with some assets and formations possibly being held to ongoing missions into 2027.
Louder and funnier:
"Overall, the tenor from the military leadership is that the ongoing Iran operation, having reached the six-month mark, has been 'too much for too long,'" an insider told the Post.

"Certain generals and admirals were more expansive and frank than is usual in telling Hegseth they disagreed with orders to keep providing equipment and personnel when the operation’s trajectory remains uncertain."

The Army, Navy and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations abroad delivered these warnings to Hegseth via the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book, sources told the Post.

Of concern was Trump's efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which have necessitated military action remain a possibility, according to the report. That means U.S. Central Command, the headquarters responsible for prosecuting the war, must keep 50,000 troops on alert for months, the Post reported.

"The Aug. 14 orders book directs some troops deployed in the Middle East to remain there through September and some others into 2027," the report stated. "The prospect of extending those forces further compelled military leaders to voice their concern, these people said."

Meanwhile, U.S. operations in Europe, Asia and Latin America have lost ships, aircraft and other equipment to the conflict, limiting their ability to conduct missions, the report stated.

The Navy, in particular, said it has had to stretch capacity to keep up with Trump's wartime demands, according to the Post.

The warnings reveal just what a precarious situation Trump has found himself in, the report concludes.

"The military’s warning to Hegseth...offers new insight into the administration’s dilemma as Trump seeks to end the conflict on terms favorable to the United States," the report states.
And in the Strait:
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has just issued a warning after receiving a report last evening that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz inbound approximately 12NM north of Khasab, Oman. There are no casualties or environmental impact. The location of the attack would indicate the vessel was struck while using the U.S. established shipping route through Omani waters.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
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Trump Works All The Time On The Problems That Face This Country

Trump: "Kristen Welker, the Unpopular 'Hostess' of the once great Meet the Press, now considered Meet the Fake Press, just stated that Donald Trump has 'mixed results' on his Endorsements of Candidates ... Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment ... The Press is a Disgrace to our Nation, and I hope that Chairman Brendan Carr, and the fine people of his Commission, will take this Threat to our Country very seriously. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter of Fake Polls and Commentary! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Since last week? And can somebody please name a Canadian car manufacturer? I’m really drawing a blank, here.

BTW:
 
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Saturday, August 29, 2026

O πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

I’d say it’s sad to see Canadian officials getting sucked into acknowledging Trump’s delusional behavior; but he is the POTUS.  However insane and juvenile, what he says is a statement for the entire country. 

When, then, do we, the people, recognize he is an international embarrassment to the whole country?
It can’t be determined that is the general consensus of the world; but it’s hard to see how it couldn’t be. Could we at least set that as the threshold for impeachment and removal? This is the presidency in which we should make the impeachment clause mean something. Or just amend the constitution and remove the clause so that we quit pretending a president wholly unfit for office can be removed for cause.

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On The Campaign Trail

Isn’t Trump supposed to be campaigning for this guy? They do seem to be distracted. "Lake America" is sure to bring MAGA to the polls. If “Lake America” doesn’t work, they can always take credit for changing of the seasons. 😈
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Pure “Communism”

Talarico: My faith is central in my public service, and if you go back and read the New Testament, even if you’re not a Christian, even if you’re not religious, go back and see what Jesus spends most of his time doing. It’s not preaching, it’s not teaching. It’s healing. It’s healing people.

And that is what we are called to do, whether you’re religious or not, is ensure—ensure that our neighbors have the care that they need. And that is, that is gonna be the end result of this plan and the other health care policies that we’re gonna fight for in Washington: saving the lives of our neighbors, bringing down these costs for all of us so that we can afford to get by in this economy, so we can afford to fulfill our God-given potential.

That is the end goal. That is our North Star.
Why Talarico is so dangerous. He doesn’t put money before people.

He must be a Commie. Right?
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Without Trump Or Piker

Pritzker: So here’s the truth, plain and simple: Our state is under siege. Not by protesters, not by immigrants, not by the deep state, not by the press, not by Canada or Mexico or Greenland, not by Antifa or by Jewish space lasers or pride parades.

No. Our state is under siege by a petty, corrupt man in Washington. A man who ran for president because he wanted to live in a palace and get rich or get richer.

Our state is under siege by the skilled sycophants who surround that president and use his base desires as cover for their own destructive agendas.

Our state is under siege by the many, many Republicans who are either too infatuated or too frightened to fight Donald Trump for the people they serve.

And I mean Republicans like Darren Bailey. You can be a lot of things and still be an effective governor, but one thing you cannot be is a coward.
Pritzker: Hoping that corporate tycoons and tech billionaires will find their better angels and help mend the society that they broke is not a strategy. It’s an empty slogan.

We must recenter the conversation on the everyday Americans who get up every morning and try their best to make do with what they have, who are holding it together with duct tape and string, and who are asking their leaders to honestly confront one fundamental question: Is life really just about getting up, going to work, and grinding it out until you die? Or do we owe each other something better, something more?

I believe, as governor, I owe you something more. And your governor should believe that. And I am willing to fight like hell to get it.

I’m willing to wield the truth like a weapon. And I’m willing to confront people in my own party who are too feckless to fight. And I’m willing to confront the people in the Republican Party who are too cruel to lead.
Fight for your constituents instead of against the other politicians? Sounds pretty radical.
Pritzker: Gas prices are high. Why? Because Donald Trump took us to war…

Meat and fruit and beer and cars cost more today than they ever have. Why? Because Trump insisted on imposing tariffs and going into trade wars.

Farms are going under, and businesses tied to those farms are laying off workers because President Trump started a trade war that had no greater purpose than a few cable news hits.
Trump wants to be on the ballot. Why not help him out? Not about Hasan Piker and Lake America?*


*The more we ignore both topics, the better.
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And As One, Texas Says:

"Who is this Manafort guy, and why should we care?”

The central tenet of Texas culture, which is far more often a failing than a strength, is usually summed up as:  “That’s right, you’re not from Texas.”

Texans don’t really take kindly to being told what they think, especially by non-Texans.
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From The Head Down 🫀

AHEM!
President Trump says the U.S. has secured majority control over a joint venture covering more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves, following the administration’s effort to bring American energy companies back into Venezuela.

Under the reported arrangement, Venezuela’s interim government granted the venture a 100-year concession to operate the affected oil fields. The U.S. government would control 55% of the venture, through a combination of equity and the ability to acquire oil at cost.

The Trump administration says the arrangement could bring nearly $100 billion in private investment, increase U.S. oil supplies and eventually reduce energy prices. The administration also says the deal comes at no cost to U.S. taxpayers.

The agreement covers roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s more than 300 billion barrels of proven reserves. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but production has been constrained for years by underinvestment, deteriorating infrastructure, sanctions and the nationalization of foreign-owned assets.

The identity of the private operator involved in the joint venture has not yet been disclosed. Companies including Chevron, Repsol and Eni still have operations or interests in Venezuela, while other major oil companies remain wary after having assets nationalized under Hugo ChΓ‘vez.

The deal is part of a broader U.S. effort to reopen Venezuela's oil industry to foreign investment following the January U.S. military operation that removed NicolΓ‘s Maduro and installed Delcy RodrΓ­guez as interim president.
But please, Mr. Speaker, please explain to us what “communism” is  I withdraw my previous request. Clearly, it’s beyond the Speaker’s capabilities.
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I’m Sure We’re In Good Hands πŸ™Œ

What Trump is saying:

What’s actually happening:

The Iran war is creating growing concerns about U.S. munitions inventories and the ability to respond to a major contingency involving China or Russia.

According to U.S. officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, PAC-3 Patriot interceptors and ATACMS missiles in Europe have fallen to “beyond critical” levels. Other precision weapons and guided rockets have also been drawn down, while THAAD interceptors and counter-drone systems have been moved from Europe to the Middle East.

By mid-July, U.S. forces had reportedly expended approximately 1,700 Patriot interceptors, 200 THAAD interceptors and 150 Navy Standard Missiles during the Iran conflict. Iran has launched more than 1,500 ballistic missiles and 6,000 large drones during the war.

The depletion is affecting U.S. planning. European Command has reportedly adjusted operational plans, while officials have previously acknowledged that current inventories could constrain the ability to execute contingency plans for Taiwan.

The problem is compounded by production timelines. Replenishing some advanced interceptors and missiles could take years, even as European allies face delays receiving weapons they have already purchased.

The White House and Pentagon dispute the characterization of a broader U.S. munitions shortage, saying current inventories remain sufficient to meet America's strategic objectives. NATO likewise says the alliance retains enough air-defense munitions for its defense.
It’s reassuring to know Pete Hegseth is on the wall: Meanwhile: Something John Ratcliffe wasn’t reportedly concerned with: As a Boomer who grew up in the shadow of imminent nuclear holocaust, and remember ms “duck ‘n’ cover” exercises in elementary school, let me be the first to tell you youngsters: “Sleep well.”
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