Monday, August 31, 2026

Fairies At The Bottom Of The Garden

Reporter: Analysts predict it could take several years before the Venezuela oil—

Trump: It’s going to go fast.

Reporter: When?

Trump: Analysts predicted a thing like this could never happen, too. Nobody ever thought it was possible. Remember? Russia was there. China was there. They're not there anymore, are they? You know who is there? U.S.A.
He has no clue what the technical obstacles are; starting with the fact that none of the major oil companies are showing any interest in this “deal” Trump thinks he has.

The problems of safety and infrastructure in Venezuela still exist. Venezuelan law says this kind of deal cannot be made. Trump can say “We’re the U.S., we can do what we want,” but the U.S. doesn’t own an oil company, and Marines are not roughnecks and petroleum engineers. The government doesn’t own the equipment, the government doesn’t have the expertise. Some estimates say it would require $1 trillion of investment to begin extracting the oil. That means oil companies would have to invest it, or at least partner with the U.S. Government. And how does that work?

Not soon enough to start refilling the SPR.
Making Venezuela productive is a decade long process, at least. It will require a huge private investment, and probably using the U.S. military as security forces. The latter just to get the former to make the investment.  There are reasons Venezuela has been producing about half the amount of oil it produced before. Those reasons have not changed. One other wrinkle: the 65 million barrels may be a chimera, a figment of Hugo Chavez’s imagination. 

Chavez is the source of the claim that Venezuela has 300 million proven reserves. Is that true, or is it a lie? More reasonable estimates are that Venezuelan reserves are 1/10th of that, at the low end; 1/2 of that at the high end. So Trump may have made a deal for twice as much oil as Venezuela actually has available.

It wouldn’t really be a surprise, would it?
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Two Issues; Or, The Court Steps Aside

 Standing of the plaintiff (they probably don’t have it, although the court does not definitively rule on that issue, but they might as well do), and national security concerns establish grounds for irreparable harm on behalf of the government.

Declarations from the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Director of the United States Secret Service, and the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Secretary of the Army, among others, attesting to national security and other harms that would likely arise from enjoining a “single, coherent” project that cannot be readily cleaved into distinct below- and above-ground pieces. See, e.g., App. to Application 229a, 246a–247a, 397a–398a, 426a–429a, 431a–433a, 437a–439a. The Secretary of the Army, for ex- ample, represents that “[t]he height and mass” of the planned above-ground ballroom are “crucial” to shield the planned underground military installation “from kinetic impacts,” and that, without such height and mass, “engineers would need to dig impractically deep.” Id., at 247a.
No examination of the President's authority to order this construction, because:
Today, we do not pass upon the legality of the government’s East Wing project. We conclude only that, based on the submissions before us, the government is likely to prevail in showing that the Trust lacks Article III standing to challenge the project in federal court and that the remain- ing stay factors favor relief.
IOW, the plaintiffs lack standing, though the Court has not so ruled. And (I didn’t quote it), the Court ruled that the injunction against the executive exceeds the authority of the court (checks and balances and co-equal branches, etc.), and so the executive is likely to prevail at trial (the baseline requirement for upholding, or overturning, a preliminary injunction). No need to get to the question of presidential authority, or the @unitary executive.”  In essence, the ball is entirely in Congress’ court. 

The Court does not rule on the legality of the construction, which means the Court has not placed it beyond the power of Congress by inventing some new constitutional principle. Congress can order a halt to construction, can overrule the national security arguments, can even order a return to status quo ante and force the replacement of the East Wing. And based on this ruling, I think the Court is signaling it will keep the Art. III wing out of it.

I’m intentionally not commenting on the standing argument, or even the irreparable harm argument. I haven’t (yet) read the dissent (s?)*. I’m sure the opposing arguments are well reasoned and stated. I’m focusing on what happens now, because it seems to me the majority is stepping aside, rather than stepping in. Not every administrative action, especially in this Administration, should be solved a court order. Intentionally or not, this another brick in the wall for a Democratic victory in November. Because, as I’ve said before, it’s high time for Congress to reassert its Art. I authority. 

The Court just opened the door for them to do that.


*Interestingly, Roberts’ dissent raises the very issue that the majority refuses to address: that the law explicitly requires Congressional authority in order to build or destroy any building on White House grounds. The majority ducks that issue on the grounds that the lower court interfered with a co-equal branch of government. It’s not a good argument, and I think it does give the executive more power than it should have. But I’m happy for Congress to be forced to address this issue. So while I agree with Roberts, my argument stands.  For better or worse. (Roberts also rejects the majority’s standing argument. It’s really rather remarkable.) But I’m tired of Congress relying on Art. III to rein in Art. II, and pretending their only power is another time-wasting impeachment trial. Legislation is Congress’s primary authority.  And while the law already says Trump can’t do this, take away the money for this project, reassert authority over allocation of funds, and order the destruction of the ballroom. I think the majority is signaling they don’t want to get involved in this any further. That’s Congress’s cue. Time to step into the spotlight, and take that light away from Trump.
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Radically Dangerous Leftist Stuff

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The W of T is D ☠️, Part II

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The Wages Of Technology Is Death

New: The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved two transmission lines to ship electricity to the oil-and gas-producing west.

The decision came after an hours-long meeting in which landowners told commissioners the proposed transmission lines would harm their land, the surrounding natural resources and wildlife.
People first? Or business? The eternal struggle. Actually, when campaign ads come:
Earlier this week, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Gina Hinojosa released an ad blaming Abbott for the spread of Flock cameras across the state, calling the devices a method of “warrantless surveillance.” A social media post from Hinojosa asked Abbott to “stop turning Texas into a surveillance state.”
Abbott will make you believe a man in a wheelchair can tap dance. And Trump will make you believe an 80 year old man can live in an iron bubble.
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“War Crimes Against Humanity”?

Yes, every accusation is a confession (it’s easier to understand his blather that way), but this one really crosses over into sheer emotional derangement and just throwing words against the wall to see if they stick. The situation on both sides seems to be smaller than that.
Situation Update: U.S.-Iran (General Access)

The latest U.S.-Iran escalation appears increasingly centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has been using small boats to monitor and identify commercial vessels transiting the Strait using Omani waters for an undetermined period. The boats can blend into civilian maritime traffic, making them difficult to distinguish from ordinary vessels. This comes amid sporadic Iranian attacks and attempts to restrict ships transiting Hormuz without Iranian permission.

The U.S. then struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island after assessing they were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait.

Iran responded with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, with eight missiles reportedly intercepted. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was also reportedly targeted, though that remains unconfirmed.

The pattern suggests Iran is attempting to reassert control or disrupt maritime traffic through Hormuz, while the U.S. is acting to prevent Iran from closing or mining the waterway. Various reports indicate transits through the strait of Hormuz have declined.

What remains to be seen is whether the strikes from both sides tonight will continue in the coming days.
And Trump is living in a fantasy.
Just for clarification, U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s post on his Truth Social app about Kharg Island was more so a threat than anything else and not him claiming Kharg was struck. So far, lasts night’s round of reciprocal strikes has not expanded to include what we saw in the most recent two week bombing campaign about a month ago.
Not so much threat as wish fulfillment. And Trump’s reference to “war crimes” sounds like reporting military personnel seeking CO status over orders to attack civilians in violation of law finally penetrated his bubble. Signs point to “Yes.”
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Sunday, August 30, 2026

What A Difference Two Years Makes

Trump thinks it’s all done by fairies and magic. Don’t tell him there are no fairies. (And yes, Virginia, this is why Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but has never controlled the world oil market. Its oil is heavy and sour, and that means it’s even harder to get out of the ground, as well as refine into usable products.)

But don’t take Twitter’s word for it:
The Energy Dept. reported 294.1 million barrels in the SPR as of Aug. 20, including 192.3 million barrels of sour crude and 101.8 million barrels of sweet crude. That is only 41% of the reserve's authorized capacity.

Filling the SPR completely would therefore require roughly 420 million barrels. Even restoring it to the roughly 415 million barrels it held immediately before the March emergency release related to Trump's Iran war would require about 121 million barrels.

Essentially, that wouldn't even reverse the energy-security damage caused by the war. Blaming the Biden administration for the SPR's current state is disingenuous.
How rude!
The biggest catch is that the 65 billion barrels aren't sitting in a Venezuelan warehouse. They are simply proved reserves -- oil deposits that can be commercially recovered -- spread across 17 fields. Venezuela currently produces only about 1.25 million barrels per day despite possessing roughly 303 billion barrels of proved reserves, because years of underinvestment and infrastructure deterioration have crippled its petroleum industry. The new agreement targets production of more than 1.5 million barrels per day.

That means Trump's SPR announcement cannot instantly translate into hundreds of millions of barrels in U.S. salt caverns. Wells have to be drilled, equipment repaired, pipelines and export infrastructure restored, crude transported and the oil ultimately delivered to the Gulf Coast. That is a multiyear industrial project, not a weekend shipment.
No fairies?🧚  Nope. There is, however, science and law.
Venezuelan crude isn't necessarily the same oil already sitting in the SPR. The Energy Information Administration says most Venezuelan reserves are extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. Historically, Venezuela's conventional crude has also been heavy and sour.

The SPR, meanwhile, does not normally store heavy crude below 22.3 degrees API, and heavy oil presents additional storage and operational difficulties. Moreover, the reserve's existing inventory is primarily light and medium crude, so Trump can't simply mix Venezuelan heavy crude in for whatever the SPR needs. Specific grades would have to meet SPR specifications -- potentially through blending -- and the Energy Dept. retains the right to reject crude deemed incompatible with existing stocks.

Legal questions aren't trivial, either. Venezuela's constitution gives the state control over petroleum resources, although a January 2026 hydrocarbons-law reform opened the door to greater private participation. The agreement's precise legal structure remains unclear, creating potential challenges over sovereignty, contracts, and the authority of the interim Venezuelan government to make the kind of deal announced yesterday.
Don’t put it past Trump to order the Venezuelan crude be pumped into the caverns with the light crude. If it gets there before 2029.
Trump thinks a lot of things work that way. He’s going to think the SPR is up to a billion barrels; and that the FCC has stopped all polls that Trump doesn’t like.

And that everyone in America loves him, inflation is gone, and it really is a Golden Age. Right up until the morning after Election Day. Which will prove the process is rigged. Even if he never can prove it.
Little boy needs to feel special.
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This Is Not A Bench Trial

A) Paxton never made that kind of money.

B) He’s been the Texas Attorney General since 2015. As his next explanation says 👇, that’s a full time job.

C) He didn’t buy 15 houses 11 years ago.
Ken Paxton recently bought three condominiums at a luxury resort in Utah, a set of purchases that offered fresh insight into his wealth amid his run for Senate.

The properties, along with a dozen others owned by Paxton, are at issue in his ongoing divorce negotiations with his wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, who has accused him of adultery.

Mr. Paxton, 63, purchased the condos, worth a total of $1.6 million, in February, according to local property records, and transferred them to his blind trust. On the deeds, Paxton listed his address as a Dallas-area home. Police records indicate a woman who is not his wife lives there. Paxton, who has been photographed vacationing with the woman, has not directly addressed the relationship.

Public records reviewed by The Times show Mr. Paxton, his blind trust and another family trust now own at least 15 properties worth around $9 million, including a luxury cabin in Oklahoma, three homes in Florida and a plot of land in Hawaii.

Mr. Paxton’s expanding real estate portfolio has raised questions in the past about how he has amassed his wealth, despite his $153,000 salary as attorney general. Both Mr. Talarico and Mr. Paxton’s opponent in the Republican primary, Senator John Cornyn, have suggested Mr. Paxton has used his public role to benefit himself. Mr. Talarico has disclosed one property on his state and federal filings, as well as an annual salary of less than $100,000.
Paxton owned more than a few properties prior to his impeachment trial. He out his mistress in one of them, which was part of the basis of the impeachment. One begins to see why Paxton ran away from these questions for several months. He probably shouldn’t have stopped doing that.
Ken Paxton when asked by a Fox host about his 3 primary residences (out of his 15 homes). This should clear it up! “Yeah. So in Texas, the Constitution used to require that you, if you're a statewide officeholder, you have to move to the capital. So I used to live in Collin County. I had when I became attorney general, I bought a condo in Austin so that I could live in the capital pursuant to what the Constitution required. Well, then my wife became a state senator. She wanted to buy a house, and by the way, that became my primary residence because it was required by the Constitution. So, when we bought a new house, we moved our primary residence to – to a house. So that was both were dictated by the Constitution, and then they changed the Constitution. They got rid of that requirement that you have as a statewide officer that you have to have a residence, or you have to live, whatever that means, in – in Austin. And so when that happened, I moved back to Collin County. So this idea that somehow that's fraudulent, they of course aren't following Texas law. They don't real – either don't realize or they're being deceptive about what was required under the Texas Constitution that was changed. So this this is just a con job by James Talarico again because he doesn't want you to know that he's a radical leftist…"
Did you get all that? Paxton and the Texas Constitution and his wife (“Biblical Grounds”!) adds up to…Talarico is a radical leftist.
Talarico: My faith is central in my public service, and if you go back and read the New Testament, even if you’re not a Christian, even if you’re not religious, go back and see what Jesus spends most of his time doing. It’s not preaching, it’s not teaching. It’s healing. It’s healing people.

And that is what we are called to do, whether you’re religious or not, is ensure—ensure that our neighbors have the care that they need. And that is, that is gonna be the end result of this plan and the other health care policies that we’re gonna fight for in Washington: saving the lives of our neighbors, bringing down these costs for all of us so that we can afford to get by in this economy, so we can afford to fulfill our God-given potential.

That is the end goal. That is our North Star.
Yeah. That guy. Although, to be fair, compared to Paxton, Jesus of Nazareth is a radical leftist. Although, caring about your neighbor is a Texas value….

As for that “explanation” about why Paxton has more than one primary residence (nobody really cares, but since Trump brought it up (ETTD)…), the old adage still holds: if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

I mean, I’m a Texas lawyer, and that explanation was still one I wouldn’t offer in a bench trial.
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Or: A Very Small Child, Who Has No Business Holding Public Office

Or a toddler, who we’ve handed a shotgun. Except this shotgun is not loaded.

But again, it’s the POTUS. So attention must be paid. But attention should not be confused with deference. Two conditions that often appear alike.

He’s still a toddler, after all.
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MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Yeah, about that:
The Department of War has confirmed that at least seven U.S. military commissaries have reported refrigeration problems this week, including facilities at Fort Irwin, Holloman AFB, Naval Station Newport, Little Rock AFB, F.E. Warren AFB, Robins AFB and Fort Huachuca. The below photos were posted by Fort Irwin to social media.

The disruptions have resulted in some stores restricting sales to dry goods, while refrigerated and frozen products have been removed or discarded. Fort Huachuca reported that all frozen food was spoiled after freezers entered defrost mode.

DoW says the Defense Commissary Agency is moving products to alternate temperature-controlled locations and taking precautions to prevent further losses and ensure food safety.

The cause remains unknown. Some online speculation has suggested a coordinated cyberattack or deliberate disruption of network connected refrigeration systems, but there is currently no official evidence presented in the article supporting that explanation. DoD specifically declined to speculate on the cause or say whether the outages are being investigated as a connected incident.
SNAFU
According the Washington Post, citing people speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the classified nature of the leak, in the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB), a bi-monthly briefing given by top commanders to the Secretary of Defense, top U.S. military decision-makers warned against renewed strikes against Iran and a prolonging of the largely stalemated conflict/negotiation process.

Our next four posts will detail further what recommendations were given, concerns raised, and the updates on force posture.
FUBAR.
Per the Washington Post report on the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB) leak, the Navy has arguably been beggared the most out of all the branches during operations against Iran and subsequent blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Per the report, Pacific Command (PACOM) Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo “disagreed with the level of support he was ordered to continually provide, including an aircraft carrier strike group and naval destroyers, those familiar with the assessment said.”

As reports abound of conditions aboard vessels committed to operations in the Central Command (CENTCOM) AOR, per the article on the SDOB, vessels are at least slated to stay in theater until September, with some assets and formations possibly being held to ongoing missions into 2027.
Louder and funnier:
"Overall, the tenor from the military leadership is that the ongoing Iran operation, having reached the six-month mark, has been 'too much for too long,'" an insider told the Post.

"Certain generals and admirals were more expansive and frank than is usual in telling Hegseth they disagreed with orders to keep providing equipment and personnel when the operation’s trajectory remains uncertain."

The Army, Navy and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations abroad delivered these warnings to Hegseth via the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book, sources told the Post.

Of concern was Trump's efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which have necessitated military action remain a possibility, according to the report. That means U.S. Central Command, the headquarters responsible for prosecuting the war, must keep 50,000 troops on alert for months, the Post reported.

"The Aug. 14 orders book directs some troops deployed in the Middle East to remain there through September and some others into 2027," the report stated. "The prospect of extending those forces further compelled military leaders to voice their concern, these people said."

Meanwhile, U.S. operations in Europe, Asia and Latin America have lost ships, aircraft and other equipment to the conflict, limiting their ability to conduct missions, the report stated.

The Navy, in particular, said it has had to stretch capacity to keep up with Trump's wartime demands, according to the Post.

The warnings reveal just what a precarious situation Trump has found himself in, the report concludes.

"The military’s warning to Hegseth...offers new insight into the administration’s dilemma as Trump seeks to end the conflict on terms favorable to the United States," the report states.
And in the Strait:
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has just issued a warning after receiving a report last evening that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz inbound approximately 12NM north of Khasab, Oman. There are no casualties or environmental impact. The location of the attack would indicate the vessel was struck while using the U.S. established shipping route through Omani waters.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
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Trump Works All The Time On The Problems That Face This Country

Trump: "Kristen Welker, the Unpopular 'Hostess' of the once great Meet the Press, now considered Meet the Fake Press, just stated that Donald Trump has 'mixed results' on his Endorsements of Candidates ... Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment ... The Press is a Disgrace to our Nation, and I hope that Chairman Brendan Carr, and the fine people of his Commission, will take this Threat to our Country very seriously. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter of Fake Polls and Commentary! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Since last week? And can somebody please name a Canadian car manufacturer? I’m really drawing a blank, here.

BTW:
 
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Saturday, August 29, 2026

O 🇨🇦

I’d say it’s sad to see Canadian officials getting sucked into acknowledging Trump’s delusional behavior; but he is the POTUS.  However insane and juvenile, what he says is a statement for the entire country. 

When, then, do we, the people, recognize he is an international embarrassment to the whole country?
It can’t be determined that is the general consensus of the world; but it’s hard to see how it couldn’t be. Could we at least set that as the threshold for impeachment and removal? This is the presidency in which we should make the impeachment clause mean something. Or just amend the constitution and remove the clause so that we quit pretending a president wholly unfit for office can be removed for cause.

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On The Campaign Trail

Isn’t Trump supposed to be campaigning for this guy? They do seem to be distracted. "Lake America" is sure to bring MAGA to the polls. If “Lake America” doesn’t work, they can always take credit for changing of the seasons. 😈
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Pure “Communism”

Talarico: My faith is central in my public service, and if you go back and read the New Testament, even if you’re not a Christian, even if you’re not religious, go back and see what Jesus spends most of his time doing. It’s not preaching, it’s not teaching. It’s healing. It’s healing people.

And that is what we are called to do, whether you’re religious or not, is ensure—ensure that our neighbors have the care that they need. And that is, that is gonna be the end result of this plan and the other health care policies that we’re gonna fight for in Washington: saving the lives of our neighbors, bringing down these costs for all of us so that we can afford to get by in this economy, so we can afford to fulfill our God-given potential.

That is the end goal. That is our North Star.
Why Talarico is so dangerous. He doesn’t put money before people.

He must be a Commie. Right?
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Without Trump Or Piker

Pritzker: So here’s the truth, plain and simple: Our state is under siege. Not by protesters, not by immigrants, not by the deep state, not by the press, not by Canada or Mexico or Greenland, not by Antifa or by Jewish space lasers or pride parades.

No. Our state is under siege by a petty, corrupt man in Washington. A man who ran for president because he wanted to live in a palace and get rich or get richer.

Our state is under siege by the skilled sycophants who surround that president and use his base desires as cover for their own destructive agendas.

Our state is under siege by the many, many Republicans who are either too infatuated or too frightened to fight Donald Trump for the people they serve.

And I mean Republicans like Darren Bailey. You can be a lot of things and still be an effective governor, but one thing you cannot be is a coward.
Pritzker: Hoping that corporate tycoons and tech billionaires will find their better angels and help mend the society that they broke is not a strategy. It’s an empty slogan.

We must recenter the conversation on the everyday Americans who get up every morning and try their best to make do with what they have, who are holding it together with duct tape and string, and who are asking their leaders to honestly confront one fundamental question: Is life really just about getting up, going to work, and grinding it out until you die? Or do we owe each other something better, something more?

I believe, as governor, I owe you something more. And your governor should believe that. And I am willing to fight like hell to get it.

I’m willing to wield the truth like a weapon. And I’m willing to confront people in my own party who are too feckless to fight. And I’m willing to confront the people in the Republican Party who are too cruel to lead.
Fight for your constituents instead of against the other politicians? Sounds pretty radical.
Pritzker: Gas prices are high. Why? Because Donald Trump took us to war…

Meat and fruit and beer and cars cost more today than they ever have. Why? Because Trump insisted on imposing tariffs and going into trade wars.

Farms are going under, and businesses tied to those farms are laying off workers because President Trump started a trade war that had no greater purpose than a few cable news hits.
Trump wants to be on the ballot. Why not help him out? Not about Hasan Piker and Lake America?*


*The more we ignore both topics, the better.
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And As One, Texas Says:

"Who is this Manafort guy, and why should we care?”

The central tenet of Texas culture, which is far more often a failing than a strength, is usually summed up as:  “That’s right, you’re not from Texas.”

Texans don’t really take kindly to being told what they think, especially by non-Texans.
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From The Head Down 🫤

AHEM!
President Trump says the U.S. has secured majority control over a joint venture covering more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves, following the administration’s effort to bring American energy companies back into Venezuela.

Under the reported arrangement, Venezuela’s interim government granted the venture a 100-year concession to operate the affected oil fields. The U.S. government would control 55% of the venture, through a combination of equity and the ability to acquire oil at cost.

The Trump administration says the arrangement could bring nearly $100 billion in private investment, increase U.S. oil supplies and eventually reduce energy prices. The administration also says the deal comes at no cost to U.S. taxpayers.

The agreement covers roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s more than 300 billion barrels of proven reserves. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but production has been constrained for years by underinvestment, deteriorating infrastructure, sanctions and the nationalization of foreign-owned assets.

The identity of the private operator involved in the joint venture has not yet been disclosed. Companies including Chevron, Repsol and Eni still have operations or interests in Venezuela, while other major oil companies remain wary after having assets nationalized under Hugo Chávez.

The deal is part of a broader U.S. effort to reopen Venezuela's oil industry to foreign investment following the January U.S. military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro and installed Delcy Rodríguez as interim president.
But please, Mr. Speaker, please explain to us what “communism” is  I withdraw my previous request. Clearly, it’s beyond the Speaker’s capabilities.
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I’m Sure We’re In Good Hands 🙌

What Trump is saying:

What’s actually happening:

The Iran war is creating growing concerns about U.S. munitions inventories and the ability to respond to a major contingency involving China or Russia.

According to U.S. officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, PAC-3 Patriot interceptors and ATACMS missiles in Europe have fallen to “beyond critical” levels. Other precision weapons and guided rockets have also been drawn down, while THAAD interceptors and counter-drone systems have been moved from Europe to the Middle East.

By mid-July, U.S. forces had reportedly expended approximately 1,700 Patriot interceptors, 200 THAAD interceptors and 150 Navy Standard Missiles during the Iran conflict. Iran has launched more than 1,500 ballistic missiles and 6,000 large drones during the war.

The depletion is affecting U.S. planning. European Command has reportedly adjusted operational plans, while officials have previously acknowledged that current inventories could constrain the ability to execute contingency plans for Taiwan.

The problem is compounded by production timelines. Replenishing some advanced interceptors and missiles could take years, even as European allies face delays receiving weapons they have already purchased.

The White House and Pentagon dispute the characterization of a broader U.S. munitions shortage, saying current inventories remain sufficient to meet America's strategic objectives. NATO likewise says the alliance retains enough air-defense munitions for its defense.
It’s reassuring to know Pete Hegseth is on the wall: Meanwhile: Something John Ratcliffe wasn’t reportedly concerned with: As a Boomer who grew up in the shadow of imminent nuclear holocaust, and remember ms “duck ‘n’ cover” exercises in elementary school, let me be the first to tell you youngsters: “Sleep well.”
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Oh, By The Way

 Professor Vladeck:

As expected, DOJ is appealing Judge Talwani's TRO to the First Circuit, and will (almost certainly) go to #SCOTUS if/when the court of appeals refuses to stay it pending appeal.

TL;DR: Mail-in ballots will be back before the justices by as early as the middle of next week...
Remain calm. All is well.
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Friday, August 28, 2026

Working Daily On The Needs Of The Country

Nutlick didn’t say what Trump works on…. 65 billion barrels is not immediately available; it’s estimated reserves. It’s also “sour” and very heavy, meaning it takes more effort to refine. Production in Venezuela has also fallen to less than half the 3.5 million bpd it was. By comparison, Permian Basin production is 6.6 million bpd. Venezuela currently produces about 1.2 million bpd. So, yeah….  

But don’t listen to me, listen to the people who know what they’re talking about:
Analysts said they needed to see more details on the agreement's legal and financial structure before assessing whether it could attract significant investment.

Also unclear is whether the deal will lower ​gasoline prices in the short term, as developing the ​infrastructure needed to produce, transport and refine ⁠Venezuela's heavy crude could take years.

David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, said it was unclear whether a U.S. government lease would have a legal basis under Venezuela's constitution and its new hydrocarbons law, adding that there is "no precedent for having the U.S. government enter into a lease to operate oil fields."

Goldwyn ​also questioned whether the plan would address the obstacles that have deterred investment in Venezuela for years. "It is hard to see how this kind of ​arrangement would accelerate investment at ⁠any material scale," he said, citing political uncertainty, an inadequate power grid, limited export capacity and government discretion over the industry.
Even if investment starts crowding into Venezuela starting tomorrow, it’s not going to affect oil prices soon, if ever. 65 billion barrels can’t be sent to refineries overnight (they couldn’t handle it if that happened). So it can’t affect the market. Unless and until production even gets back 1998 levels (3.5 million bpd), it won’t significantly affect U.S. oil prices. Rubio says this arrangement will lure $100 billion in investment. Well, maybe.

Or maybe not.

But the Strait of Hormuz still looms large, and will for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile.... If there are people in Minnesota who can’t afford Starbucks in the first place…let them eat cake.🍰 

Finger on the pulse, from the top, down….
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Space Ghost

Trump: I have no doubt that under this great administrator and all of you people, you're going to have no question is going to go further than it ever has. I really believe that. Or I made a big mistake in getting it going again, because I had to get it going. It was a little bit, it was a little bit not going too well
This close to English. (h/t Charlie Pierce) Which is what made it an incredible evening. I guess. He loves space because his head’s so full of it. (h/t Walt Kelly)
Trump: It was very embarrassing, actually, what had happened. Not only had the United States lost its ability to send our astronauts to the moon but under the Bid— under a number of administrations, I have to tell you, but in particular the Obama administration, we even lost our ability to send astronauts into orbit..
More and more I’m convinced he has no idea what words mean. There are international treaties about not militarizing or nationalizing space. They were right. Please come back and campaign for Paxton soon. Maybe talk about data centers. Or get on the phone. Just make sure it’s all about Trump. That’s the most important thing. 🙄
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Vote Early And Often!

The DOJ sent two “election monitors” to Wyoming for its August 18 primary.
Federal election monitors arrived without notice at a polling site in Cheyenne, Wyoming’s capital, about 7 a.m. last Tuesday, Laramie County clerk Debra Lee told the New York Times.

The monitors' demands to interview voters and inspect machines were denied, the Times reported.
Monitors are not supposed to interfere with elections.
"The Justice Department often monitors polling sites during elections," the report noted. "But the visits to Wyoming came amid President Trump’s ongoing fixation with finding evidence of fraud and vote tampering."

The president and his allies have made claims that voting machines switched votes in 2020, and "he has tried and failed to find evidence of widespread fraud or vote tampering ever since," the report stated.
So
The monitors ultimately visited six polling places, showing their credentials only when asked for them. Gordon described their behavior as "very odd" and said he had asked the state attorney general, Keith Kautz, to investigate the matter, the Times is reporting.
Inspecting voting machines and interviewing voters without a court order actually IS election interference. Which DOJ couldn’t even manage in Wyoming. Which may vote Republican, but where government officials also know the law. (A quick reminder that Roberts gutted the VRA because it interfered with “states’ rights.”) If this was a dry run for November, it was very dry, indeed.
The department has said it will send 1,000 monitors to the polls this fall.
I’m guessing they won’t bother with Hawai’i and Alaska: too far away. So not 20 people per state, averaged out. But even 1000 monitors in Texas is pointless. 4 per county? There’s over a million people in Travis County; over 2.4 million in Harris County; over 8.5 million in the D/FW Metroplex, which is more than two counties. 1000 monitors is a drop in the ocean in any major urban area of Texas (without getting to San Antonio or El Paso). Especially if they try the same stunt here. And don’t plan to spend two weeks monitoring early voting. In 254 counties.

🤡🎪
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😎

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Another Trump Administration Failure

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I Double Dog Dare Ya!

I want Cruz to leave the safe confines of D.C. or his River Oaks mansion (most exclusive neighborhood in Houston), and face farmers and ranchers and rural Texas residents…

…and tell them they are dupes for China.
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Election Interference Ain’t What It Used To Be

Wyoming has a population just about equal to Austin, Texas. When I lived there 35 years ago. Austin now has about twice the population of present day Wyoming.

All of which is to say DOJ went for easy pickings. Wyoming’s primary was August 18: the same day as the primary in Alaska (too remote and dispersed), and Florida (too populous). And what did they accomplish? They pissed off the governor, who actually understands this is a nation of laws, not of men.

Incompetence is its own worst enemy.
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Nobody Could Have Foreseen

 Kind of explains the problems on the Abraham Lincoln:

Donald Trump’s war on Iran has driven the US military into a severe financial crisis, with the US navy forced to transfer money from its payroll and other sources to cover the costs of combat, according to documents seen by the Guardian, and interviews with navy officials, contractors and defense analysts.

The US-Israeli operation, which has depleted US munitions stockpiles and prompted retaliatory Iranian strikes that have wrecked strategic bases across the Middle East, is piling pressure on budgets across the military.

One Pentagon memo about navy funding seen by the Guardian warns that there are “shortfalls in payroll” accounts due to the department “raiding” them to fund combat operations.
A government led by a man who bankrupted a casino. A SOD who was a TV talking head. Nobody could have foreseen….
At this point, however, funding a war with no clear endgame is the main challenge. A former military officer now working for a navy contracting company, who has been briefed on the shortfalls, said: “They’re fucked. They shot all their weapons; they trashed all their ships; they ran out of their money.”
So we’ve declared economic war on the world, if they don’t back our sanctions on Iran. How many weapons do we have for that “war”?
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Thursday, August 27, 2026

Somebody? Anybody?

Asking for a friend.
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The Sinister Six Really Could Have Stayed Out Of This

Because I really don’t think they want to declare this rule, constitutional:

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani on Thursday granted a fourteen-day temporary restraining order freezing the mandatory core of the U.S. Postal Service's rule for any election on or before November 3, including envelope-design approvals, voter enrollment in a new federal portal and provisions letting USPS refuse to mail non-compliant ballots.
So, all 50 states have to submit ballot envelope designs for approval; all voters using mail in ballots have to enroll at a new federal portal; and USPS gets to decide whether your ballot can use their mail service. What could go wrong? Especially with a service that has failed for years to deliver my weekly New Yorker magazine on a regular basis, or sometimes at all. And failed for weeks to deliver my mail. I’m sure they can set up a system to set the design of the envelope, communicate that information to all 50 states, review those designs, communicate acceptance/flaws to all 50 states, and then sit back. USPS can get all that done in…how many years?

Voter suppression for rural and old (in Texas, you can vote by mail just because you are 65 or older) voters. Who tend to be GOP voters. Tell me again why they think this is a good idea?

First serious legal question: under what legal theory is USPS in charge of state regulation of mail in ballots? I don’t think even Congress could give USPS that authority. Congress can certainly take it away.

I’m through relying on the courts, if you can’t tell. The trial court has wisely issued a TRO, and is likely to make that a temporary injunction. If I understand correctly, the appeals court had ruled on the states’ case, but not the LWV case; which is why the Supremes didn’t rule on the latter. And why the DOJ said it wasn’t fair to make them follow the rules:
Days ago, the DOJ said plaintiffs could "simply amend their complaint." But once they did, it reversed course and argued they were now too late because "appellate review in the ordinary course would come too late for the 2026 midterms." Talwani rejected the DOJ's pivot.

"But the question is not when appellate review will be completed," Talwani wrote. "The issue before the court is whether plaintiffs have met the traditional standards for emergency relief."
This rule is already too late for the 2026 election. It will take years to implement; or you can just declare voters disenfranchised. It’s also a stunningly unconstitutional rule. It is one Congress can cancel, but not one even Congress can authorize. The Sinister Six did not rule on the validity of this rule, because it hadn’t been published when their opinion was published.

As the judge found today:
She found the states likely to win and ruled the USPS lacked authority to regulate election mail. The postal service's interest in "correcting an unsubstantiated problem through likely unconstitutional means is dwarfed by the overwhelming risk of pervasive disenfranchisement," she wrote.
I’m sure the Sinister Six would respond: “Yeah, but…unitary president.” Which is why  Congress needs to end this. If not now, then next year. Trump is threatening the election for Republicans and Democrats alike, but even more so for Republicans. Republicans who refuse to respond to that fact, deserve to be tossed out of office. That’s not the only reason, but it’s the best one right now.
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You Have To Be This Old 👴….

...to get this reference.

I hope he brings this to Texas. When he tells us how great data centers are, and how bad wind energy is (Texas produces the largest amount of wind energy of any state in the union. It’s especially big in the Panhandle, which is deep red.).
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Or… 🤦‍♂️

Democrats could follow the lead if Talarico and Ossoff an El Sayed and Mamdani,  and tell voters what candidates will do for them, rather than bitch like a bunch of Heathers. If you just gotta bitch, bitch about what matters in the world. Because the number of voters who know who Hasan Piker is, or cares that anyone calls Bernie Sanders an antisemite (I thought he was a radical socialist?), is vanishingly small. And almost terminally online.

Which sort of tells you how important this is anyway. 🤷‍♀️
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Music Time

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You Know Trump Will Be Talking About This…

... in Dallas at the “mini-convention” and while he’s campaigning for Paxton.

Because people in Texas really care about the names of the Great Lakes. If they know the names of all five lakes. Or that “Ontario” is the Native American name for that lake. 

So, racist and insensitive and stupid and pointless and nothing anybody asked for…and less than two months before voting starts in Texas.

Trump will be so proud of himself.

I REALLY want Trump to campaign for Paxton. Maybe for Abbott, too. 😈
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Be Careful What….

Okay. Surely Trump can use this map 🗺️ when he campaigns for Paxton.

I’m only disappointed no one mentioned the hurricane map from Trump 1.0.
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After The Press Conference…

...he’s going down to the shore to stop the tide from coming in. No, seriously. He really is. He told Canada “Give us absolute authority over your international trade, and don’t make us write in French.” Canada’s a NATO country, but Trump says Canada is defenseless without us. 🤷‍♀️ 
Reporter: SCOTUS ruled on mail-in ballots. There are states like North Carolina that have ballots going out next week. How are states supposed to implement this in time?

Trump: They’re able to figure it out. North Carolina is great. I won at golf three times.

Reporter: Why do you keep voting by mail in ballot—
Follow the captions on the video. Trump has no idea what the Supreme Court ruling meant. It was not a ruling on the merits, as the lawyers say. It’s a double super secret sanction that nobody knows about. Included the people who are supposed to enforce it! Who’s going to tell him even Paxton quit using “Talafreako” when Talarico put it on a t-shirt and sold out of them? 
Trump’s net approval rating in Texas is -22 points. So please, come spend a lot of time campaigning with Paxton.

Talarico is leading Paxton, 48% to 42%. I’m sure Trump can widen that gap. Especially among Republican voters.
Q: Has the data centers issue made you willing to vote for James Talarico or is this just about voting against Abbott?

Lifelong TX Republican: I would vote for the devil before I voted for Abbott. Abbott's not going to get my vote. He's just spewing rhetoric. I've been listening to Talarico. I've been listening to for the first time in my life, a lot of Democrats..
Hopefully Trump will come to Texas and campaign on the importance of data centers. 😈 Canada makes cars? I know they make a lot of car parts for American manufacturers like Ford and GM. Toyota and Mercedes have factories here, too (and probably many others. Trump’s brain is frozen in 1970), and may use parts made in Canada. Tariffs on those car parts are only going to raise the price of cars. And repairs. Once again, tariffs are taxes. They don’t put money in anybody’s pocket, just in government coffers.

The man is thick as a brick. 🧱 
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