This is amazing
— NYTPitchbot (@DougJBalloon) November 8, 2026
π₯NEW: NBC's Steve Kornacki *DUMPS COLD WATER* on The Today Show viewers' hopes of Dems winning Senateπ₯ Kornacki noted Democrat leads in key Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polling frequently underestimates Trump voters. He asserted Republicans now confidently view polls where Democrats have slight leads as likely GOP victories. Kornacki gave specific examples, such as Ohio and Iowa. Remember the infamous Ann Selzer Iowa 2024 poll? Kornacki particularly highlighted the Kansas Senate race in 2020. He said the Democrat was polling well — but Republican Roger Marshall ultimately smoked her in a landslide. Marshall is now supposedly polling extremely tightly against his Democrat opponent once again. Kornacki also pointed out that even blue states like Michigan and Minnesota appear remarkably close in polling. He reminded viewers that Abdul El-Sayed barely won his primary after polling projected a huge victory. Due to the tightness of these Senate races, underestimating Republican turnout by even a small margin could make all the difference. Frank Luntz also recently warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls and asserted he was "skeptical" that polls were accurate. Nobody is buying the polls anymore. Democrats could be in for a rude awakening in 2 weeks.
— Jason Cohen πΊπΈ (@JasonJournoDC) October 20, 2026
NEW: NBC's Steve Kornacki *DUMPS COLD WATER* on The Today Show viewers' hopes of Dems winning Senateπ₯So I spent the week in a lodge in the mountains, with no cell service, but with satellite TV. It gets DARK in the mountains, and nothing much to do until daylight but watch TeeVee. We opted for MS NOW because most of the other channels sucked, and it was enjoyable watching election returns and then bathing in the historic victories. Well, for awhile.
Kornacki noted Democrat leads in key Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polling frequently underestimates Trump voters.
He asserted Republicans now confidently view polls where Democrats have slight leads as likely GOP victories.
Kornacki gave specific examples, such as Ohio and Iowa.
Remember the infamous Ann Selzer Iowa 2024 poll?
Kornacki particularly highlighted the Kansas Senate race in 2020. He said the Democrat was polling well — but Republican Roger Marshall ultimately smoked her in a landslide.
Marshall is now supposedly polling extremely tightly against his Democrat opponent once again.
Kornacki also pointed out that even blue states like Michigan and Minnesota appear remarkably close in polling.
He reminded viewers that Abdul El-Sayed barely won his primary after polling projected a huge victory.
Due to the tightness of these Senate races, underestimating Republican turnout by even a small margin could make all the difference.
Frank Luntz also recently warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls and asserted he was "skeptical" that polls were accurate.
Nobody is buying the polls anymore.
Democrats could be in for a rude awakening in 2 weeks.