Monday, May 25, 2026

🤖

 Just listen to what Pope Leo has to say. I am, as the saying goes, unworthy to loosen his sandals.

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🐺

Trump has been making these noises since March: When does everyone decide he’s cried “WOLF!” one too many times?

I’m pretty sure the Iranians have figured it out by now.
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“Sign Or Die!” 🎣🎏

The bill for American action has arrived at the Saudi door. Last night, Donald Trump reportedly demanded that in exchange for finalizing the current ceasefire deal with Iran—the one desperately needed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—the Gulf states would have to pay a massive premium: immediate normalization with Israel. According to my sources, the ultimatum was met with literal silence. The Arab leaders were so thoroughly stunned by the audacity of the request that Trump actually had to break the silence with a follow-up: “Are you still there?”

For months, we have watched a narrative form: Israel deceived the United States into a disastrous war that only empowered Iran. This narrative ignores multiple factors, including but not limited to the fact that it was Trump’s choice, Trump did not follow the Israeli plan, and—perhaps most of all—the presence of another major player calling for war: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

In late February, The Washington Post reported that the decision to go to war had been reached after encouragement from two key allies: Israel and Saudi Arabia. Throughout the war, they reinforced this support. A few weeks later, when Trump was claiming that the war would be over in a few days, The New York Times reported that both nations heavily encouraged a continuation of the conflict. Prince Mohammed reportedly argued that the United States should consider putting troops in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and force the government out of power.

But things have changed.

The Saudis never expected to put their core energy infrastructure on the line for this conflict, assuming a covert nod to Washington would yield a painless destruction of the Iranian threat. Instead, the smoking ruins of the Ras Tanura refinery, a staggering $33.5 billion first-quarter deficit, and a hull-to-hull backup in the Strait of Hormuz served as a brutal awakening. With the United Arab Emirates stepping aggressively into the vacuum—gladly absorbing the role of America’s primary, hardline Gulf ally—Riyadh is executing a frantic tactical retreat. For the past month and a half, MBS has been beating a different drum: diplomacy. “Okay,” said Trump last night, but constantly shifting positions comes with a cost: normalization.

This is about far more than Trump extracting a quick return on investment. By demanding normalization as the price for a ceasefire, he is forcing the Saudis to grab Israel’s other arm to physically restrain Jerusalem from striking Iran alone.

It underscores a truth that Trump understood and Obama never did: the most effective way to control Israel isn’t to push them away, but to wrap them in a bear hug. By locking Jerusalem into a close alliance, Washington doesn’t just protect them—it places its hand directly over the Israeli trigger finger. Washington needs its hand over that trigger because Israel has little incentive to hold back when the current deal appears to leave Iran in a stronger position than before.

That is the Iranian impression as well. In The Art of the Deal, Trump writes: “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.” Sensing American eagerness for a diplomatic off-ramp, Tehran has smelled exactly that, aggressively upping its demands before any Memorandum of Understanding can be printed.

Despite draft stipulations requiring a return to free transit, the IRGC is leveraging its tactical position to normalize a permanent, permission-based transit regime in the Strait of Hormuz—boasting that 33 commercial vessels were forced to register and coordinate with the IRGC Navy in a single 24-hour window. Meanwhile, Iran has flatly rejected a Pakistani compromise to defer unresolved issues, flipping the entire sequencing of the talks by refusing any nuclear-related commitments or stockpiling concessions at this stage. Instead, an emboldened Tehran is demanding immediate economic rewards, including the unfreezing of blocked assets, while conditioning the entire agreement on an “all fronts” ceasefire that would effectively force Washington to strip Israel of its freedom of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

At the end of the devastating Iran-Iraq War, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini famously declared that accepting peace was like “drinking a poison chalice.” Today, his successor’s successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, is facing no such bitter brew. Instead, Benjamin Netanyahu is being asked to swallow the fatal mixture this time around. Much to his relief, Donald Trump is trying to mix in a Saudi sweetener to help the medicine go down.
Trump is hardly this clever. He’s not doing anything to Israel, and he never will. He’s shootings for the history books by, he thinks, creating peace in the Middle East. But the only leverage he has, he’s giving away. If he makes a deal with Iran (as he must), the other countries in the region are effectively on their own. If he restarts hostilities, they’re on the battlefield again. His only leverage with them is that threat; and that’s hardly enough to get them to recognize Israel. Indeed, it’s leverage that’s lost the minute it’s used.

If anything, Trump’s threatening to withdraw support, not increase it. Iran attacked those countries because they had American military bases, or supported the war. And now Trump is telling them: “Back me, or fuck you!” He’s already said it to NATO. Why should the Middle East hear him differently? To be blunt: if Trump really wanted this to happen, he wouldn’t announce it in a phone call and in social media.

I posted this because of the report on the response: stunned silence. Again, Trump has no cards, and he has no clue. The game is draw poker, and he’s playing “Go Fish.”
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The Social Media Wars

Donald Trump... ... v. Iran A toll, by any other name. But Iran actually sounds measured and competent. Trump, as he loves to say, doesn’t have the cards. 🃏 (Yes, his argument is, either recognize Israel, or I restart hostilities and Iran restarts collateral attacks on our allies in the region.
Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!

...

Its level of Importance and Prestige will be unparalleled! It should start with the immediate signing by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and everybody else should follow suit. If they don’t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention. In speaking to numerous of the Great Leaders mentioned above, they would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords. Wow, now that would be something special!
The man really knows how to make a deal. One wonders what Graham and Cruz and Pompeo have to say about that.)

(And the “trap” was sprung the moment Trump decided to attack Iran. It was the stupidest possible thing he could do. So, of course, he did it.)
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Memorial Day 2026


Memorial Day didn't start as a day to honor veterans who "died for our freedom." Ironic, because the last war fought "for our freedom" before WWII, was the Civil War. We had a lot of wars in the 19th century, most of which we ignore: the Spanish American War, the Mexican War, the war in the Philippines, the war in Panama, all the imperialist efforts Mark Twain decried and Henry David Thoreau protested. Memorial Day was not a day to remember we'd won our freedom at the expense of others; it was a day simply to remember dead family members, those who had died in the Civil War. It started with ladies in the South, after the Civil War.  They had done it before the war ended, and after the war they honored the Union dead as well as the Confederate dead.  They honored the living by honoring the dead. It was "Decoration Day." They went to the graveyards and decorated the graves (my wife still does, for her family members; but year round, not one day a year).  They weren't as afraid of death as we are now.

A child said What is the grass? fetching it to me with full hands;
How could I answer the child? I do not know what it is any more than he.
I guess it must be the flag of my disposition, out of hopeful green stuff woven.

Or I guess it is the handkerchief of the Lord,
A scented gift and remembrancer
designedly dropt,
Bearing the owner's name someway in the corners, that we may see and remark, and say Whose?

Or I guess the grass is itself a child, the produced babe of the vegetation.

Or I guess it is a uniform hieroglyphic,
And it means, Sprouting alike in broad zones and narrow zones,
Growing among black folks as among white,
Kanuck, Tuckahoe, Congressman, Cuff, I give them the same, I receive them the same.

And now it seems to me the beautiful uncut hair of graves.

Tenderly will I use you curling grass,
It may be you transpire from the breasts of young men,
It may be if I had known them I would have loved them;
It may be you are from old people and from women, and
from offspring taken soon out of their mother's laps,
And here you are the mother's laps.

This grass is very dark to be from the white heads of old mothers,
And I perceive they do not come from the roofs of mouths for nothing.

I wish I could translate the hints about the dead young men and women,
And the hints about old men and mothers, and the offspring taken soon out of their laps.

What do you think has become of the young and old men?
What do you think has become of the women and children?

They are alive and well somewhere;
The smallest sprouts show there is really no death,
And if ever there was it led forward life, and does not wait at the end to arrest it,
And ceased the moment life appeared.

All goes onward and outward. . . .and nothing collapses,
And to die is different from what any one supposed, and luckier.--Walt Whitman

"The beautiful uncut hair of graves." We used to put our graves beside our churches, so we knew where our dead were. Now in our sanitary ways, and our sanity, we keep them as far from the beaten path as possible; along with our hospitals, our nursing homes, our "funeral homes." We don't want to be reminded of death, unless it is on TV, and involves the death of "bad people." Or just the unknown faceless ones; not our friends; not our neighbors; not, ironically, our families.

The Gettysburg Address should be linked to Memorial Day, too. It was written, after all, to commemorate a graveyard, and the dead who died in battle and lay there now.

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, upon this continent, a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that "all men are created equal"

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of it, as a final resting place for those who died here, that the nation might live. This we may, in all propriety do. But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow, this ground -- The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have hallowed it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here; while it can never forget what they did here.

It is rather for us, the living, we here be dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that, from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here, gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve these dead shall not have died in vain; that the nation, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people by the people for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
Lincoln praised those who died in a valiant struggle to preserve the union, to keep the nation from ending.

 "I wish I could translate the hints about the dead young men and women,/And the hints about old men and mothers, and the offspring taken soon out of their laps./ What do you think has become of the young and old men?/What do you think has become of the women and children?" I think: "A wise man who speaks his mind calmly is more to be heeded than a commander shouting orders among fools." I think: "Wisdom is better than weapons of war, and one mistake can undo many things done well." (Ecclesiastes 9:17-18, NEB)

I think this is a day to praise famous women and men, and for believers to remember their Creator, and to honor the dead not for what they fought for, but because they, too, were God's children.

Let us now sing the praises of famous men,
all the heroes of our nation's history,
through whom the Lord established his renown,
and revealed his majesty in each succeeding age. Some held sway over kingdoms
and made themselves a name by their exploits.
Others were sage counsellors,
who spoke out with prophetic power.
Some led the people by their counsels
and by their knowledge of the nation's law;
out of their fund of wisdom they gave instruction.
Some were composers of music or writers of poetry.
Others were endowed with wealth and strength,
living peacefully in their homes.
All these won fame in their own generation
and were the pride of their times.
Some there are who have left a name behind them
to be commemorated in story.
There are others who are unremembered;
they are dead, and it is as though they had never existed,
as though they had never been born
or left children to succeed them.
Not so our forefathers; they were men of loyalty,
whose good deeds have never been forgotten.
Their prosperity is handed on to their descendants,
and their inheritance to future generations.
Thanks to them their children are within the covenants-
the whole race of their descendants.
Their line will endure for all time,
and their fame will never be blotted out.
Their bodies are buried in peace,
but their name lives for ever.
Nations will recount their wisdom,
and God's people will sing their praises.

--Ecclesiasticus 44:1-15, NEB


My uncle fought in World War II; with the French Resistance, if memory serves.  Or maybe not. Maybe that was a grand embellishment by the family, or my own early imagination.  He never said anything about the war, or about war, to me; except once.

I went to visit him after I'd married and his kids, my age, my cousins I all but grew up with, had all married, too.  So it was just my wife and I and my aunt and uncle; the first time I'd experienced such an arrangement.  Odd are the passages from childhood to adulthood. He picked us up at the airport.  I was reading Studs Terkel's then new oral history The 'Good' War. The quotes around "good" weren't too apparent in the cover design, and he asked me what I was reading this time (in those days I was always reading).  When I showed it to him, and told him it was about World War II, he said, "I didn't think there was such a thing as a 'good' war."  And he smiled; the kind of smile that always made me think he knew much more about much more than I did, or ever would.  A smile of experience, but of deep, painful knowledge he would never unlock and share again.

My brother-in-law fought in Vietnam.  When everybody else was going to college so as, not to get drafted, he volunteered.  He was Green Beret, Special Forces, and a Captain.  He's never told me anything about Vietnam, either, except that when he first arrived there it was the most beautiful country he'd ever seen.  And within 10 minutes, he knew the U.S. had no business being there.  But he did his job; he followed orders.  He was a good soldier, and he's one of the finest men I know.  He's as kind, generous, and open-minded as anyone can be.  He's realized belatedly he suffers from PTSD.  Too many stresses in life since the war bring back the buried guilt of coming home when good friends he knew, didn't.

I have a recording of the "Airborne Symphony," by Marc Blitzstein.  Maybe it's the first performance, because the narrator is Orson Welles.  I always think of it this time of year, because the most poignant part of the libretto is the section about bombs, and the cities destroyed by planes.  It's "The Ballad of the Cities."  The narrator reads a partial list of cities destroyed by bombs, but the music moves into the "Morning Poem" with the chorus singing plaintively and repeatedly:  "Call the names.  Call the names.  Call the names."

It always seems to me the only appropriate observance of Memorial Day.  Call the names.

On this day, again, it is best we turn away from war, and seek peace.


PEACE

O Christ, Son of the living God, have mercy upon us.
Thou that sittest at the right hand of the Father, have mercy upon us.
Arise, O Christ, and help us,
And deliver us for thy Name's sake.

AMEN.

O Christ, when thou didst open thine eyes on this fair earth, the angels greeted thee as the Prince of Peace and besought us to be of good will one toward another; but thy triumph is delayed and we are weary of war.

SAVE US AND HELP US, O LORD AND MASTER.

O Christ, the very earth groans with pain as the feet of armed men march across her mangled form.

SAVE US AND HELP US, O LORD AND MASTER.

O Christ, may the Church, whom thou didst love into life, not fail thee in her witness for the things for which thou didst live and die.

TEACH US TO DO THY HOLY WILL, O LORD AND MASTER.

O Christ, come to us in our sore need and save us; 0 God, plead thine own cause and give us help, for vain is the help of man.

SAVE US AND HELP US, O LORD AND MASTER.

O Christ of God, by thy birth in the stable, save us and help us;
By thy toil at the carpenter's bench, save us and help us;
By thy sinless life, save us and help us;
By thy cross and passion, save us and help us.

SAVE US AND HELP US, O LORD AND MASTER.

Then all shall join in the Lord's Prayer.

Our Father, who art in heaven, Hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.. For thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory, for ever. Amen.

--The E&R Hymnal

I miss my church and its old formalities, the kind I grew up with in a different branch of the Reformed tradition. It is good to recover the past, once in a while. It is good to honor the dead, all the dead, and to remember. 
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Sunday, May 24, 2026

So, Status Quo Ante

The concept of a proposal of an idea of a framework of an outline for temporary consideration of a plan to be presented in two weeks. 

Or so.

Beginning with seating arrangements and size and shape of the table….

And continuing the ceasefire. That goes without saying.
Sooner or later he’ll convince himself Iran has cooperated. After all, he started this insisting on “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” And here we are, almost as many weeks without bombing as weeks with constant bombing. If Trump wasn’t such a feckless boob, I’d believe it. I almost do, anyway. It is Trump, after all. Trump does make it hard not to believe. Was it really just this morning he was announcing an agreement?

Of course it was….
And there our troubles began....
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“That was a whole month ago”

Trump’s supposed Iran “deal” already appears to be falling apart.

After reports emerged that the framework involved giving Iran billions of dollars while allowing Iran to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and punt on the nuclear issue, Trump suddenly began changing his tune following a call with Netanyahu and pressure from Republican war hawks.

The entire situation is unraveling publicly in real time.
Nobody could have foreseen. Who told us what the “deal” was, before he told us what it isn’t?
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran, as his administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old war that had been raised just yesterday during public statements and calls with allies in the Middle East, according to Reuters.
Again: public statements by…? C’mon, you can say it….

Who came up with this preposterous idea?
According to @BarakRavid for Axios, citing people with knowledge on the matter, during a call today with Arab leaders, U.S. President Donald J. Trump told them that if a U.S.-Iran deal is realized, he would like them to become party to a wider peace framework with Israel. In the past, President Trump has championed the furtherance of the Saudi-Israeli Abraham Accords and an expansion of a potential Arab-Israeli rapprochement framework was not received well by the other nations on the call. Per the report, the president’s request was received by silence on the phone line.
What a surprise:
Amid the alleged “internal pressure” being placed on Trump to resume the war against Iran, Bloomberg has reported that the president has also faced significant “outside” pressure to resume the war, including from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and billionaire media mogul Rupert Murdoch.
Can’t resume the war and get the rest of the Middle East into the Abraham Accord. (Do we need any more evidence that Trump is a dangerous and insufferable dimwit?) Earlier this morning: And this is aging like a glass of milk in the Texas sun:
Kevin Hassett: "As people are getting ready to get their oil refineries going back to full capacity, then there's just basically a gusher of oil that could come out. There are a lot of other great signs on inflation. As soon as we get energy prices going back down, you could actually be looking at negative inflation."
This will age about as well, too: If Paxton thinks that’s going to help in the general, he may as well quit now. Trump just gave Talarico another ad.

If Congress doesn’t end this stupid and pointless war by the midterms, they’ll do it in January. There’s no way out other than to accept most of Iran’s demands. And there is no way forward. There never was. It may take a new Congress to understand that. A Congress that didn’t let Trump do whatever damned fool thing he wanted to.
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Explain This To Me Like I’m That 👇 Stupid

Obama didn’t start a war 

Obama didn’t kill people

Obama didn’t  spend $500 billion (and counting) and deplete half our military arsenal 

Obama didn’t crash the world economy in the worst energy crisis since the ‘70’s

Obama got Iran to agree to inspections and oversight of their nuclear program, to be sure they didn’t start enriching uranium 

Trump tore up that agreement, and Iran started enriching uranium 

Trump attacked Iran, and started that energy crisis and crash; a crisis that won’t be solved by opening the Strait. It’s too late for farmers around the world. Nature doesn’t pay attention to political calendars.

The outlines of the deal now look like the JCPOA we already had. Except Iran isn’t agreeing to give up the enriched uranium. (And didn’t Trump insist he’d “obliterated” that almost a year ago?)

I think the opposite of the JCPOA is what we have right now.
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Someone Is Crawfishing 🦞

Except when they aren’t:
Amidst increasingly contradictory reports on the deal between the U.S. and Iran, U.S. President Donald J. Trump posted yet again about the deal on his Truth Social app, lambasting critics of the reported deal framework and decrying past deals made with Iran. Per President Trump, “it [the deal with Iran] isn’t even fully negotiated yet.”
Um....
According to a statement from U.S. President Donald J. Trump, following a call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, an agreement, surrounding the current memorandum of understanding on the table, “has been largely negotiated.” Per the statement from President Trump, the final points of the deal are now being discussed and “the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.” Trump also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to fill him in on recent developments. Further announcements regarding the deal are forthcoming, per the president.
Half-negotiated? Or half-not negotiated? In any case, this has yet not to be true: Hard confirmation: Reality has finally punctured Trump’s thick skull, and he’s going to make it go away while lying profusely about what he’s doing. Lying to himself, which means lying to the country. I’m betting the country doesn’t buy it.
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Meanwhile, In Ukraine

Tonight, the Russians struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities and communities. The largest number of missiles was directed at the capital – at ordinary residential buildings, at schools; they burned down a food market, one of Kyiv’s oldest markets. The Russian strike effectively destroyed the Chornobyl Museum, damaged the National Art Museum and the building housing the office of Germany’s ARD. As of now, 69 people have been reported injured in the capital. Tragically, two people were killed in this senseless Russian attack. My condolences to everyone who has lost family members and loved ones.

I have already spoken with the President of France and the Prime Minister of Norway. There will be further communication with our partners today. I am grateful to everyone who is not staying silent about what Russia is doing. They are waging war solely against our people – against our memory, our history, and everything that makes up normal human life. It is important that Russia understands that they will be held accountable for all these crimes.
I’m only surprised Putin hasn’t learned the lesson of the U.S. and Iran: you can’t bomb your way to victory. 

Then a, he tried invading with troops, didn’t he?
Why do I think Putin is going to get his ass handed to him in the foreseeable future?
Russia hit a dead-end on the battlefield, so it terrorizes Ukraine with deliberate strikes on city centres.

These are abhorrent acts of terror meant to kill as many civilians as possible.

Moscow reportedly using Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles – systems designed to carry nuclear warheads – is a political scare-tactic and reckless nuclear-brinkmanship.

Next week, EU Foreign Ministers will discuss how to dial up the international pressure on Russia.
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The Enemy Of My Enemy

Derangement Syndromes $5 a gallon gas ⛽️ and 3.8% inflation could have something to do with it. Or is Democratic messaging just that good? A) The global oil market doesn’t work like that. Oil executives have said the supply already in storage tanks and tankers has been used, and we’re about to catch up to the shortage. Tat will take months to reverse, not days. And nothing about this latest piece proposal has been agreed to by anyone.

B) “Negative inflation”? 
Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% and becomes negative. While inflation reduces the value of currency over time, deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency, but means that more goods or services must be sold for money in order to finance payments that remain fixed in nominal terms, as many debt obligations may. Deflation is distinct from disinflation, a slowdown in the inflation rate; i.e., when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive.

Economists generally believe that a sudden deflationary shock is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, especially if the deflation is unexpected. Deflation may also aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral.
Who is this idiot?
Fars News, an IRGC-linked Iranian outlet, reported that U.S. officials and mediators privately told Tehran during indirect exchanges to ignore Donald Trump’s Truth Social posts, saying they were aimed mainly at U.S. domestic audiences and did not reflect Washington’s negotiating position
More reliable than Hassett, anyway. (Yes, damning with faint praise.) Disappointed? Why would MAGA be disappointed?
BREAKING: Iran says contrary to what the US claims, the now fully leaked "Memorandum of Understanding" contains no Iranian commitments to hand over nuclear stockpiles, remove equipment, shut down nuclear facilities, or even commit to not build a nuclear bomb. Instead, all nuclear issues are deferred to a 60 day period of negotiations after signing, per Fars News.

For this period to start, the US would need to accept no nuclear commitments from Iran, agree to release $100 billion of Iranian frozen assets, lift the naval blockade, lift all oil and petrochemical sanctions during the negotiation period, pay $270 billion in war reparations, and accept Hormuz under "full permanent sovereign Iranian management and authority" at pre-war traffic levels with no US presence.
Oh.... I would note that this weekend Trump finally started acknowledging the impact on the world economy arising from the effective closure of the Strait (he dare not say anything about the U.S. economy). He’s mentioned it in connection with the peace proposal he’s touting. I fully expect him to accept any terms that lead, as soon as possible, to the opening of the Strait.
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This Is Really Just An Excuse To Pile On

According to Axios, citing U.S. officials familiar with the ongoing negotiations, the peace agreement that Iran and the United States are close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing future nuclear ambitions of Iran.

Both sides would sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual agreement from the two countries. During the 60-day period, the Strait of Hormuz would be open with no tolls and Iran would agree to clear the mines it deployed in the strait to let ships pass freely. In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers, allowing the sale of oil and other energy products by Iran.
That’s if Iran accepts these terms. Axios is notoriously a mouthpiece for the Administration. Even this utter capitulation may not be enough.
If President Trump agrees to a 60-day ceasefire extension based on vague Iranian promises to “discuss” nuclear issues, it’s game over. That pushes the crisis into late July or early August, when major military operations become far less likely ahead of the midterms.

Once the military leverage disappears, meaningful nuclear concessions disappear with it. Ballistic missile restrictions will be nonexistent. Iran will get billions in sanctions relief—while repeatedly using Hormuz as a tool of blackmail.

Tehran will have won at the negotiating table what it lost on the battlefield.
"Major military operations” died the moment Trump declared a ceasefire. There was never a chance of their resurrection. Trump was never more competent or capable than this. Face it.

It’s not even clear Tehran lost anything on the battlefield.
To assess the results of the war, the analysis is actually quite simple:

A. Iran before the war:

1. Willing to engage in nuclear negotiations 2. Prepared to consider significant concessions on the nuclear issue 3. The Strait of Hormuz remained open and stable

B. Iran after the war (so far):

1. Demanding recognition of its sovereign role over the Strait of Hormuz 2. Refusing to discuss the nuclear issue until it receives guarantees on ending the war and meaningful economic relief

The war produced a number of tactical achievements. But strategically, it did not moderate Iran’s position but actually it hardened it.

Instead of moving Tehran closer to compromise on the nuclear file, the conflict shifted Iranian priorities toward security guarantees, economic stabilization, and leverage in the Gulf. The nuclear issue, once central, has now become conditional on broader political and economic arrangements.

That is the core strategic problem: military pressure may have weakened parts of Iran’s infrastructure, but it also hardened the regime willingness to negotiate under pressure. And, they are not ready to show more compromises...
"Tactical achievements”? It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Trump has managed to see Iran win both.
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Saturday, May 23, 2026

The Devil And The Details

President Trump is the ONLY one who could have gotten Iran — the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism — to the negotiating table.

We are greatly encouraged to learn a PEACE DEAL in Iran is underway — and look forward to learning more about the specifics.

Under President Trump’s leadership, our nation is stronger, more respected on the global stage, and safer than ever before.
Several reports are beginning to emerge giving some description of what the potential deal between the U.S. and Iran will look like. These unverified reports, largely based on anonymous sources, state that the deal will include a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. blockade, and the release of up to $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets around the world and give a 30-60 day timeline for a subsequent deal on the Iranian nuclear program.
According to my sources, the draft proposal that’s supposed to be finalised include:

-End of war on all fronts including Lebanon

-Freeing several billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds

-Lifting the U.S. naval blockade and opening the strait of Hormuz

-Withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran

After this, the parties will have 30 days to agree on the nuclear issue.
These 30 days can be extended by mutual agreement.
During these thirty days, passage will be facilitated through the strait.
According to Iran, management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue, and is being negotiated with Muscat.
"Still a complete and total mystery.” It’s amusing that Cruz thinks his opinion matters to anyone.
If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution.

This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.

Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability.

It is important we get this right.
It’s just as funny that Lindsey thinks there’s a “we” here. For Trump, there is no “we.” There is only him. That’s the one I heard about.

Pretty much what everyone expected, right?

All’s well that ends. Ending well was never in the cards.🃏 
Almost. As if. And maybe it all blows up tomorrow. We’ll see.
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Something’s Missing

According to a statement from U.S. President Donald J. Trump, following a call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, an agreement, surrounding the current memorandum of understanding on the table, “has been largely negotiated.” Per the statement from President Trump, the final points of the deal are now being discussed and “the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.” Trump also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to fill him in on recent developments. Further announcements regarding the deal are forthcoming, per the president.
"Open” as it was before? Or open to those who pay the toll?

And what about the uranium? And Ira? No mention of Iran here.
Brutal statement from Iran’s state-aligned Fars News: “It should be noted that American officials have acknowledged in multiple messages to Iran that Trump's tweets are primarily for promotional purposes and media consumption within the United States, and they have recommended that no attention be paid to these statements.”
Trump just claimed the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened” under a new deal with Iran. But Iran’s state-run Fars News says Tehran would still control passage routes, permits, timing, and access through the strait.

And now even figures close to Trump are sounding the alarm, warning that if these reports are true, the “deal” amounts to total capitulation and surrender — handing Iran sanctions relief and long-term leverage over one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes after months of war.
He left out depleting half our missile and anti-missile stocks, 
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Nobody Could Have Foreseen

Today’s call between President Trump and Arab leaders has reportedly now concluded, with a regional diplomat telling Fox News that the call was “very positive,” and that “Good progress is being made.” Adding that, “Regional leaders were supportive of the progress and of the breakthrough President Trump achieved in the talks [with Iran].”
The regional leaders are an important part of this, because if Trump did strike Iran:
“Iran would still retain dispersed missile capability, underground infrastructure, asymmetric escalation pathways, and – most importantly – the ability to widen economic disruption across the Gulf faster than Washington could stabilize it,” Pape wrote.
This is the Gordon knot Trump has tied, and now can’t even cut with a sword. 🗡️  🌮 
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AI You Can Use!

😈
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The Credulity of Journalists

Glenn Thrush, NYT:
And this, as we were reporting and figuring out how this all came down, it seems that this huge thing that he has sort of blown up the Senate and created this enormous rift in his party was an expedient so that they could get out of having to actually pay Donald Trump money, which Blanche and folks at the White House actually believed would have been a bridge too far,” he added.

“So believe it or not, this fund, this weaponization fund, which everyone is calling a slush fund with no rules, no guidelines on who will distribute the money, and apparently no guardrails was actually considered to be the best of other alternatives. This was actually their best possible plan,” he revealed.
So:

—a slush fund with no rules, including no transparency or accountability. Who gets paid, how much they get paid, why they get paid: no one else is going to know. And you can’t verify whatever you’re told, because only the AG can ask for an audit. And under Trump, that’s never going to happen. And after Trump? What’s it going to take to track down the payees by then?

—to be given to applicants based on Trump’s perception of their “victimization” by Biden, when the arrests and charges started under Trump.

—a fund started because the DOJ wanted to access the Judgment Act to make the payments legal, which required litigation to trigger;

—which litigation they had to abandon when they went to court to get the $10 billion settlement approved so Trump could legally access the Judgment Act funds.

—when the judge threatened to dismiss the case on the grounds there weren’t two opposed parties involved, Trump took a new “settlement” option and dismissed the case himself. Which raises the question of whether this settlement legally triggers the Judgment Act, since the case was dismissed, and the problems raised by the first settlement still exist.

And this “was their best possible plan”? For what? Looting the Treasury? The IRS reviewed the claim and said it should be dismissed in court without settlement, in part because the statute of limitations had run. No proof of damages was ever offered, and the claimed damages (for either settlement) far exceeds statutory limitations. In short, the suit should have been challenged in court and likely would have been dismissed. But as the trial court noted, the two parties to that now defunct suit were not adversarial. And this “slush fund” is the result.

So this “was the best possible plan” for who? And how?

Are reporters from the NYT not allowed to ask these questions?

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🥱

Meanwhile:
“Trump said it was a ‘solid 50/50’ as to whether he would be able to make a ‘good’ deal or else ‘blow them to kingdom come,’” Ravid wrote in Axios’ report.

According to Axios, Trump is expected to meet with his son-in-law Jared Kushner, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance later on Saturday to discuss Iran’s latest peace proposal, which included a proposal to fully re-open the Strait of Hormuz, Drop Site News reported.

Iran’s proposal, however, would “defer nuclear enrichment talks,” per a senior Iranian official speaking with Drop Site News on the condition of anonymity, a potentially fatal inclusion given Trump’s past claim that he would not accept a deal that omitted the matter of Iran’s enriched uranium.
Yes, the same outlet that told us that Cuba was buying up drones to prepare for an attack on the United States (there’s a reason Cuba hasn’t attacked the U.S. since Castro took power in 1959. Cuba is not suicidal.). Still, “50/50” means Trump won’t do it. Again.

He knows he’s got almost nothing to shoot with, and if he uses that up and Iran is still standing, he’s fucked our military position around the world.

Which he has, anyway….
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“Good People On Both Sides”

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Friday, May 22, 2026

Trump Can’t Go To The 🇧🇸

Trump abruptly canceled his weekend trip to Bedminster and will now remain in Washington as fears grow of imminent new strikes on Iran.

Iran has shut down its airspace through Monday, while Iranian state media says the country’s armed forces are preparing for a possible resumption of war with the United States “in the coming hours.”

CBS reports the Trump administration is actively preparing for fresh military strikes, and U.S. military and intelligence officials have reportedly canceled Memorial Day weekend plans in anticipation of possible action.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts appear to have collapsed.

This situation is escalating. Fast.
Or not. (Based on past performance, my money’s on “not.”) The President, as ever, is deeply engaged in important matters of state.
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Just Another Day

Fixed for you:

“—President Trump is the ONLY president in recent memory to openly threaten acquiring Greenland — including refusing to rule out the use of military force against a NATO ally.”

A message from Greenland to you, Jeff: Focus on your job as Governor of Louisiana instead of acting as Trump’s spokesperson.

Louisiana consistently ranks as one of the worst-performing states in America — plagued by poverty, poor education, failing healthcare, and low quality of life. Maybe you should focus on fixing your own state instead of lecturing Greenlanders about their future.
Despite how avidly we lie to ourselves, the world sees who we really are. Why the hell are Greenlanders so worried?
An investigation by The New York Times, based on interviews with officials in Washington, Copenhagen and Greenland, has discovered: The United States is trying to modify a longstanding military arrangement to ensure American troops can stay in Greenland indefinitely, even if Greenland becomes independent. The notion is basically a forever clause, and Greenlanders do not like it. The United States has pushed the talks beyond military matters and wants effective veto power over any major investment deals in Greenland to box out competitors like Russia and China. Greenlanders and Danes strongly object to this. 
Well, that and a bit more:
An investigation by The New York Times, based on interviews with officials in Washington, Copenhagen and Greenland, has discovered:

The United States is trying to modify a longstanding military arrangement to ensure American troops can stay in Greenland indefinitely, even if Greenland becomes independent. The notion is basically a forever clause, and Greenlanders do not like it.

The United States has pushed the talks beyond military matters and wants effective veto power over any major investment deals in Greenland to box out competitors like Russia and China. Greenlanders and Danes strongly object to this.

The United States is discussing cooperation with Greenland on natural resources. The island is loaded with oil, uranium, rare earths and other critical minerals, though much of it is buried deep beneath Greenland’s ice.

The Pentagon is rapidly moving ahead on plans for a military expansion and recently sent a Marine Corps officer to Narsarsuaq, a town in southern Greenland, to inspect the World War II-era airport, the harbor and places where American troops could be housed.

The American demands are so steep, Greenlandic officials fear, that they amount to a major imposition on their sovereignty. Despite all of the talk from Danish and American officials that Greenland’s future is up to the island’s 57,000 people, Greenlandic officials said the American demands would tie their hands for generations.

If the Americans get everything they want, said Justus Hansen, a member of Greenland’s Parliament, there will never be any “real independence.”

“We might as well raise our own flag halfway,” he said. 
Meanwhile, I
Congress just delivered a rare political body slam to Donald Trump.

Republicans abruptly pulled back from voting on a major Trump-backed bill after Democrats prepared amendments targeting Trump’s $1.8 billion slush fund for crooks and cop beaters.

The collapse sparked open talk on Capitol Hill that Mike Johnson’s speakership may already be entering lame-duck territory.

Lawmakers described chaos and infighting amid the GOP.
This won’t help: I guess the drones bounce off that, too? Yeah, that’s not gonna happen, either. Not before November; and not after. When you come up with it?  Sun’s going down. Wait for it. Or needed to; as he goes on to illustrate: Says the guy who thinks no one knows how to spell "Dumb." Grandpa needs his meds. He's never going to understand that's not an accomplishment, is he? And he still doesn’t understand how the Fed sets interest rates, either. The funny part is: he still can’t fire the Fed Chair.
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