Sunday, July 14, 2024

I Would Worry…

His face and ear were splattered with blood, and I don’t remember his fists so much as his face, bravely defiant because he knew there was no more threat.

But I am confident Trump will bury whatever brief advantage he has in his braggadocio. He can’t help himself. 

Martyrdom Requires A Bit More Sacrifice

A) Well, among MAGA.

B) Outside MAGA, they have to overcome the conspiracy claims of JD Vance and Mike Collins, and what’s sure to be the larger question:

C) Where the hell was the Secret Service? Not during the shooting, but before.  This was practically Dealey Plaza redux. Was there no way to secure nearby rooftop and towers?

Inquiring minds will want to know.

Trump would make a better martyr if he was truly martyred. (Thankfully he was barely harmed. Sadly, three other people weren’t as lucky.). But then it wouldn’t do him any good.

Saturday, July 13, 2024

“He Knew The Shooter Was Down At That Point”

I watched the video of the shooting and immediate aftermath repeatedly this afternoon. (NBC kept replaying it.). It’s clear Trump tells the agents to wait so he can get his shoes. Several reporters and guests,,starved for anything to say, discussed it. I expected Trump to cower, too. But there was a reason the agents crouched, then didn’t move, and no more shots were fired. Also why they evacuated the area as soon as Trump was gone. They knew the shooter was down. Even Trump knew it.  It’s likely the agents on the stage confirmed with each other that the shooter was down, and Trump knew that. That explains why he was defiant instead of terrified.

But WTF is the NYT doing writing Trump’s campaign press release?
Meet the new boss.

By Their Fruits You Will Know Them

And then, almost perfectly, we get the most useless take possible: Or maybe the Democrats should just let Trump be elected unopposed. Right? The fish rots from the head. Facts, after all, is facts. Republicans are not normal people. 1 person is dead, two were badly wounded. Even Trump says he was shot in the ear, but he’s fine

This kind of hyperbole is disgraceful.

All The News That Fits

The SS agents protecting Trump seem appropriate on the stage, but they also seem satisfied the shooter was down (and not a sniper) because they do expose Trump on the way to the car. 

Or so it seems to this layperson.

Still, would have taken a sharpshooter to hit that small target; and no more shots were heard. They must have had some confidence there wouldn’t be any more.
Glass fragments supposedly from a shattered teleprompter screen.

I watched that video ad nauseum on NBC, and Trump’s head was turned with his right ear away from the teleprompter screens in front of him. If those exploded from gunfire, they seemed perfectly whole as he was hustled from the stage. The fragments would also have to turn back on their trajectory to hit on the side turned almost 100 degrees from them. Seems much more likely the left ear would be wounded in this scenario.

Such is the problem with early reports. This one sounds seriously subject to change.

This, for example, sounds like absolute bullshit: He also says the SS blew the shooter’s head off. Which sounds like somebody who’s seen too many movies, instead of someone who actually witnessed carnage. Thecreal voice of reason: Trump has sown dragons’ teeth, and finally come near to reaping the whirlwind. Violence is as American as cherry pie, but you can’t exhort violence and then expect to be safe from it.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark?

It’s also noteworthy how long they took to get Trump off the stage. Not exactly the hustle of agents fearing more shots to be fired.Were some of the multiple shots from law enforcement? Seems more and more reasonable it was a small caliber weapon in the crowd. Two people on the bleachers say two in the bleachers were hit and were taken by ambulance. πŸš‘. 

The almost immediate evacuation also shows they had confidence the shooter was down.

Crazy From The Heat?

Serious question: how likely is Trump to do another one of these? A profile in courage he’s not. I can see him talking tough but not appearing in public like this again soon. Excuses can be made; he’s good at that.

The crowd was chanting “U.S.A.!” as Trump was hustled off the stage. Kind of ironic, since this happens here more than almost anywhere on the planet.

News reporting a wide perimeter with these things, but these shots sounded rapid and nearby, not from a rifle a long way away. Still, rely on experts, not on me.

Thoughts and prayers seem appropriate.

Meet The New Dems, Same As The Old Dems

How many times do you answer the question “Will you step aside?” before you get tired of answering it?

What the hell is Jason Crow’s question? Is Biden the national night watchman?
It was bad,” one member on the call said. “No plan.” 
When members pressed him on how he would turn the campaign around Biden just listed policy achievements. Insisted his polls look better.
Is running on your record is not a plan? Who are these clowns?🀑 

Does it occur to them it’s a bit late to be talking about replacing Biden? Are they worried about him, or about their chances? If they don’t think Biden can help them, do they think chaos is better?



The GOP Convention starts Monday. Now CBS is interested? Trump has insisted on it since January 20, 2021. His lawyers made a point of it in each of his trials. Trying to imagine the press reaction if Biden did this to people at his rallies as regularly as Trump does.

Still An Interesting Place For A Discussion

I’m starting in media res, but only because it’s a long thread and you can find the set up for yourself. This bit is in line with my own recent thinking. Jarvis lays out (briefly; it is still Twitter) a case that mass media depended on a “mass” the way GE depended on “consumers” or Disney an audience and later, masses coming to its park. Not an audience (as in the days of papers for every ethnic and political group), but an undifferentiated mass simply buying what the papers sold. The internet, he argues, has wrecked all that, and a good thing, too.

Given the recent antics of the NYT and The New Yorker (what is it about NYC and revanchism? It seems to breed it, with Trump as its exemplar.), it’s hard to much disagree with him. JMM, unsurprisingly, tilts away from Jarvis’ conclusions:
Well, of course the NYT can go hog wild against Biden (and belatedly try to pretend to be fair and balanced by opining Trump isn’t really much good either. A stance which seems to be telling the nation to scrap them both and force the parties to give us better choices three months before Election Day. A solution that might work in an Aaron Sorkin or Robert Redford movie, but isn’t much good in real life.). It’s still a free country (so far). The question that raises, though, especially in response to so trivial a provocation, is: WTF?🀬 Who, as Jarvis implies, died and made the NYT editorial board the Privy Council and George Clooney the Prince Regent? What, in other words, authority are they laying claim to? Power over the mass based on circulation and celebrity?

Aye, there’s the question.

Yes, there is a clear, fundamental threat to the American Republic in Donald Trump and the Heritage Foundation that wants to guide him. But the New York media giants want their power back. And they’ve never seemed so jealous of it since Bill Clinton came to D.C. from Arkansas.  Being definitely NOK to the NYT, the Grey Lady immediately fell for the poltroons in the Ozarks selling night crawlers to city slickers as Arkansas lobster. (Gene Lyons limned all of this a decade before the NYT fell for the lie of WMD in Iraq. It wasn’t the internet alone that destroyed the Grey Lady. It was her own arrogance and gullibility. One could argue this was presaged by the hiring, and dismissing, of Molly Ivins. A truly great journalist the august NYT never understood, because she was from the wrong side of the Hudson. Like Bill Clinton. What is it about NYC?) History is rhyming like a bad greeting card, and the poetaster general is located in New York City.

I think Josh is too narrow in his concerns, and Jarvis is much closer to the truth of it. The Times and the New Yorker are not being foolish, they are deliberately acting foolishly. They seem to realize they’ve lost the attention of the audience, and that is something up with which they will not put! If a fellow NYC icon got attention for being contrary and belligerent, they will, too! TeeVee, after all, reports it dutifully as Very Important. And then Joe Biden mocks it and jeers it and kicks it to the curb, and the crowd in Detroit cries out for more! Proving that perhaps, just perhaps, the mass is not that interested in what the mass media has to say.

Wait’ll they figure out most people don’t want to talk to pollsters, either. 

Plausible Deniability πŸŒ€

Pollsters have been relying on it for decades. Similar to the Academy Awards: no one can remember who won three weeks later. “Who really gives a shit?” goes a long way to establishing an excuse for failure to predict the future.

That kind of failure really only matters when hurricanes are coming.

Trump And The Briar Patch

It’s the sub-headline that catches my eye. The idea Trump’s campaign doesn’t want Biden to drop out is laughable.

If Biden simply withdraws (there were Very Serious People who argued Biden should resign now, and turn things over to Harris), chaos would ensue. Harris has to win the vote of an open convention, the last of which for the Democrats was… in Chicago in 1968. And if she doesn’t? Endless fights over ballot access (many filled by Republicans); $240 million in campaign accounts up the spout; a candidate to be named later following their selection (and shades of 1972 and Thomas Eagleton stepping aside for Sargent Shriver (both of whom deserved better). BTW, the descendants of those who forced McGovern’s hand then, would force Biden’s now. Hard to persuade the people you are fit for the executive if you bend to such influencers.). These kinds of dramatics have served the party so well in the past.

And Trump doesn’t want to be thrown into that briar patch? Of course he doesn’t, right, The Atlantic? I mean, how would it benefit him?

I can’t imagine.

The Silly Season

Let whoever is without public misstatements cast the first judgment. Or otherwise just leave off. But aren’t gaffes much more important?

Pointing And Laughing Can Now Begin In Earnest

Mockery is the best weapon against Trump, period.

The Black Hole Of Journalism

Bending truth to discretely deny reality. Not really the same thing as talking (repeatedly, from a teleprompter) about sharks 🦈 and batteries πŸͺ«  and  what a great guy Hannibal Lecter is.

Friday, July 12, 2024

The Horse Race Is Always The Only Story 🐎

Only The Atlantic dare ask the question: “What if Trump wasn’t Trump?”

And only the NYT would ask its television critic: “How’d Biden do?”
I’ll retire to Bedlam.

The Good Old Days

1968? The year some historians say the country was as near to civil war as anytime since the last one? The year we lost the Rev. Dr. King and RFK to political violence?  The year that all but guaranteed the War would last for 7 more years?

1964? Before the CRA was passed, and a year before the VRA was passed?

1963? The year Kennedy died, which arguably ushered in the political violence that would mark the decade and bleed into the’70’s?

1962, and the Cuban Missile Crisis?

1961, before civil rights marches and The Beatles?

Where were we in the 1960’s? Getting deeply involved in Vietnam. Becoming aware of the injustice of Jim Crow. Baby Boomers becoming aware of their adult responsibilities and the world they wanted to be more just and fair.

Somehow I don’t think that’s the 1960’s the representative wants to get back to. What’s best about our country now is because of the’60’s: civil rights and Medicare and education, to name a few. (The list is long.) Is that what he wants to get back to? So he can unravel it?

Or does he imagine if he could turn the clock back, he could also take Don Draper’s place?

“Don’t You Quit! Don’t You Quit!”

SCOOP! Biden bitch slaps George Clooney! Or Trump. Or both. Gotta say that’s my favorite.

I was sure the campaign didn’t start until after Labor Day. Here Biden’s gone and started it on the doorstep of Trump’s convention. And next week it’s all Trump all the time; and people who will make Project 2025 look almost gentle by comparison.

It’s gonna be a good week.

Voters Don’t Know Their Own Best Interests

(Yes, polls are πŸ’©. But they are the lingua franca of the pundit class.) "Pivot" = "lie your way into office." Is this “saying the quiet part out loud”? Or at least contradicting Trump’s denials of any connection to Project 2025? Asking for a friend…. Serious politicians/veterans of campaigns every one. And clearly in touch with a broad cross-section of the American electorate. Especially the non-white portion of that electorate. And the non-rich, non-media connected portion, too. Also. As well.

Come For The Ungodly Heat, Stay For The Entertainment

How it was going. CenterPointless (as some graffiti on an overpass in town dubbed it) is the provider of electric lines, but not the electricity, in Houston. It may have been working faster than before, but its communication with the public has been abysmal. No information at all was available after the storm, and then they were shamed by Whataburger into providing a map no one could make sense of. I know of a neighborhood today that was told by email their power was back. And it was; for some of the recipients; but not for all.

The Lege in its infinite wisdom copied the break up of Ma Bell (ask yer grandpa! Punks!) and separated providers from the electricity lines doing the providing. I don’t know if that led to our current woes, but things certainly aren’t better. Nobody is holding their breath.
That story bred an interesting side story. The White House said Texas had failed to ask for the aid. Lite Guv Patrick was Acting Guv because Abbott was playing head of the Texas Chamber of Commerce in Asia (he still is. But then, Harris County is dominated by Democrats). Embarrassing, of course. Patrick, brave soul that he is, and non-partisan in a crisis, immediately blamed the White House: “Did not!! Did not! You big liar!!!” Patrick is not known for his administrative skills, so nobody really believed him. Or cared. Centerpointless is the area villain for the time being.

Not satisfied with being quashed by the White House (why would they lie about losing the paperwork?), Patrick decided to punch down and blame it on the County Judge, Lina Hidalgo. This is an executive position, not a law court one. Hidalgo is Hispanic, a woman, and a Democrat. Patrick didn’t win any prizes there, either. He couldn’t look like more of an ass than he already is, but he also couldn’t stand his 15 minutes of being a responsible adult, which surprised no one.

This was all too much attention on somebody not Ken Paxton, so he had to remind everyone he’s a disgraced and pretty much worthless Texas state official, too: It was, of course, utter bullshit. I also don’t think anyone really cared.

In Houston we curse Centerpointless. We laugh at the government provided clown shows.

It helps to have a sense of humor.

Eyes πŸ‘€ On The Prize πŸ†

Or on the Hannibal Lecter question: Good guy? Or great guy? And would you invite him to your dinner party? Which they don’t report on because, you know, once word gets out, everybody shows up and then it’s not kewl anymore. The guy is so old! The real miracle is that Keith Richards is still upright. But it’s TeeVee! “O machine! O machine!” Axios reminds us it really is all about the gossip.

🐜 πŸ’©

 The late John Kenneth Galbraith told a story of his experience in (IIRC) the FDR Administration. It started as a story of ants rolling a ball of shit back to the ant bed. As they roll downhill the ball gains momentum and the ants frantically signal to each other, via antennae (just go with it): “Stop this shit!”

Galbraith used his first two fingers to imitate the frantic antennae messaging, wiggling them back and forth. He said it became a secret code when they were meeting with people seeking favors from the Administration. They’d waggle two fingers at each other: “Stop this shit.”

I was in Milwaukee yesterday doing a eulogy for a Black man killed by some hotel guards," he recalled. "People in an uproar about that are saying to me, you cannot win Wisconsin without Milwaukee and Black turnout. And they were saying to me, well, we have questions about Biden's age, but where do we go? Are they going to try to undermine Kamala Harris?" 
"So, I think that if we're talking a coalition, you've got to remember the basic roots of that coalition: Blacks, Latinos, and labor," he continued. "You can't just take for granted, we're going to go where some people just want to go and abandon someone who has been with us." 
"I looked at the press conference last night and said, where are the Black reporters?" he told the MSNBC host. "I mean, we're looking at all whites questioning Biden, and Black voters are supposed to get in line? I think that a lot of the people that are stepping out there taking things for granted. You notice that maybe only one member of the Congressional Black Caucus has said Biden ought to step aside."  
"Congressman Jim Clyburn (D-SC) will be on [MSNBC's] 'Politics Nation' with me tomorrow night. I'll be guided a lot by what he has to say," he remarked. " Don't forget, it was the stone wall of the Black voter and then the Latino vote that put Biden in nomination. And for us to be left out of these discussions I think is offensive and elitist."
Take a lesson from the ants.

C’mon, Man!

And Dana Milano proves he is irony-proof and satire-insensitive: I wouldn’t call his argument “refocus on Trump:”
 "Less amusingly, he said those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, were 'hostages, unfairly imprisoned,' who 'should be out soon' because of the Supreme Court," writes Milbank. "And he announced that 'we have nuclear submarines and five warships in Cuba.' Was Trump publicly divulging the location of U.S. nuclear assets? Or when he said 'we,' did he mean Russia? Neither one was a good look."
"He" = Trump, of course. But how to fix this press narrative problem?
"But apparently this is not what the voters are going to be hearing about for the next four months," he wrote. "Will Biden, the Democrats and the commentariat really allow this to happen? As a shrewd political observer once said: C’mon, man."
That’s right: it’s Biden’s fault! He’s making the political press do this.

C’mon, man!

Maybe A Whole New Perspective?

"What's amazing to me is the amount of attention we pay in the media, all of us, to the flubs," he began before noting Biden meant to say Vice President Kamala Harris and substituted Trump's name. 
“You know, Vice President Trump instead of Vice President Harris — things like that," he continued. "That stuff has come with the dinner with Joe Biden for 40 years and we regard it each and every time he makes a flub, it's shocking. It's not shocking." 
"What is truly shocking in terms of balance, and you referenced it, is Donald Trump's, not flubs, his incendiary rhetoric. Rhetoric aimed at dividing the country, at turning one group of people against another group of people, of threatening institutions like NATO, of threatening a country like Ukraine, things like that," he added. 
"We pay less attention to his rhetoric than we do," before adding a mocking "'Oh, my god, he called her Vice President Trump.' No, we have to get our act together and balance this thing out."
The problem runs a little deeper than that. A reminder Swan works for the “newspaper of record:” A paper whose coverage of Trump is just objectively bad and in the tank for access over accuracy.

Thursday, July 11, 2024

Biden Provided…

Shit, what would? For starters. The 9 (now 10!) in D.C.? A few outspoken donors? What the fuck do the voters know? That’s more like it. Another House Democrat nobody’s ever heard of.
It’s from JSwan, so you know it’s acceptable. And more approved authority: SO SAY WE ALL! Well, all who remember 41 year old Biden. Biden and I have both grown more tolerable in 40 years.Or he has; I’m not that sanguine about me. With age certainly comes at least wisdom. Raising the questions: 1) Would Trump ever hold an hour long press conference between now and November? 2) Would any reporter ask him about Hannibal Lecter?

Very Serious People

Very. Serious.
I’m beginning to think it’s something about progressive success by Democratic presidents after FDR ran the table and won the war. This all seems more and more like the desperate attempt of a handful of people to recall the halcyon days of 1968. And the convention is even in Chicago.

Let’s do the time warp again….

We’re Done For! We’re Done For!

I Feel Down Right Clever

The Pennsylvania senator told CNN, "She's never run for any office outside the House. She's never run for president…. He has already made his decision: He's staying in this race. Stay in if that's what you believe."
Since Sen. Fetterman agreed with me.

And I still think the worst that could happen is for Biden to withdraw. Chaos at the convention, calamity in the fundraising, lawsuits galore over ballot access (not just from Democrats, but Republicans too, putting a stick in the spokes).

There are no detours left. Forward is the only direction now.

Meanwhile, choose your adventure!
"BIDEN IS TOO OLD! But…what’s our other choice again?” You could almost build a political campaign on that issue! Honestly, we’re back to what Sen. Fetterman said. And I’m beginning to lose respect for Pelosi. (Or not. Her actual statement was to counsel patience and silence until after the NATO summit. Basically the old “politics stops at the water’s edge” approach. Arguably her concern is for seemliness, not backstabbing. So I’ll wait and see. Still agree with Fetterman, though.)

Onward thru the fog!*

*Nostalgia for an Austin long gone away.

Nancy Pelosi should have said it more clearly but what she said wasn't nearly what's been made of it in the media feeding fenzy
Precisely so, and better summed up than I could.

And Yet…

...what’s more important is what Clooney and Obama and nine Representatives think. Well, according to the political press gossip: The primary voters? The delegates? Fuck ‘em! Sure, why not?

Who’s Holding The Shovels?

I have no idea... Who controls the narrative, I wonder? It is a mystery….πŸ€”

All The King’s Horses, And All The King’s Men

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is privately telling House Democrats that she believes President Joe Biden should step aside as the party's 2024 nominee.
Nancy Pelosi is a very good politician. But either she’s slipped; or this report is bullshit.

If Biden goes back on his public statements now, and withdraws from the race, it will shatter the Democratic base that elected him as their candidate in the primaries. It will also bury his presidential legacy the way LBJ’s was eclipsed by his decision to not run. Six decades later and LBJ’s accomplishments are still not fully appreciated. That’s not a small consideration for a President.

Biden would destroy his credibility (LBJ faced a convention, not the modern primary system) and take away almost any good faith he had engendered. Kamala Harris is good enough politician to restore that loss. I don’t think Nancy Pelosi is, either. She’s certainly not a national political figure, not in that sense. In the end, she’s just a Representative. He’ll, I don’t think Bill Clinton had the political chops to salvage the disaster if Biden quits now; or even if he’d quit the day after the debate.

This idea is as detached from reality as Donald Trump is. If Nancy Pelosi is promoting it, she’s not the politician I took her for. That doesn’t mean she isn’t; a lot of politicians mistake their local expertise for national political expertise. The presidency, especially, is a unique political position, and if all you take account of is a tiny group of donors or political figures, you are doomed to national favor. Dewey didn’t defeat Truman because Truman campaigned effectively, and Dewey didn’t.

I don’t really think Pelosi is naive enough to think campaigns don’t matter, that only polls and punditry do. Whether she does or no, it doesn’t mean voters do.

Biden quitting now would be the last shot of the circular firing squad. And that failure would be Biden’s legacy. I don’t think Trump is that inevitable. I also don’t think he’s any kind of a campaigner.

It’s a long time to November.

(Besides, this story is from Politico. It’s well-grounded in “some people say” even dismissing Pelosi’s public statements as not being her real sentiments:
The speaker emerita, who has publicly said she supports whatever Biden chooses, denied pretty much all of this reporting through a spokesman last night, including that she told anyone Biden should step aside. “Publicly and privately, Speaker Pelosi has acknowledged the concerns that many have expressed in recent days but has repeatedly said that she fully supports whatever President Biden decides to do,” a spox said in a statement to Playbook.
Politico likes the first part of that statement, but tacitly dismisses the second. Because the convention hasn’t happened yet, and in the silly season of summer the political press needs a new horse race.)

Elections Are Not Won In July

But they can be lost in July…

But…But…But…Biden Is…Old!

“Fixing The Terrible 2020 Ground Game”


Wednesday, July 10, 2024

9 Democrats I’ve Never Heard Of

(Well, 8 But I only know Doggett because I lived in Austin for 15 years, 30+ years ago. Even then I didn’t realize he was still in office. Like I’ve quoted, I don’t belong to an organized political party…) Is it racist to point out how the interests of black voters are not amply represented among the Democrats and donors talking to most journalists?

Vox Populi

Trump is joining the wild rumpus:
As the likelihood of a Trump-versus-Biden rematch set in, the public responded to the two candidates precisely as LaCivita and his campaign co-manager, Susie Wiles, had hoped," wrote Tim Alberta. "The percentage of voters who felt that Biden, at 81, was too old for another term rose throughout 2023, even as the electorate’s concerns about Trump’s age, 78, remained relatively static. By the end of the primaries, the public’s attitude toward the two nominees had begun to harden: One was a liar, a scoundrel, and a crook — but the other one, the old one, was unfit to be president." 
Wiles and LaCivita insisted to reporters months ago that they have solid contingency plans for if Biden exits the race — but according to Alberta, they don't seem as confident about that anymore. 
"By mid-June ... not long before the debate, their tone had changed," wrote Alberta. "Trump was speaking at a Turning Point USA rally in Detroit and the three of us stood backstage, leaning against the wall of a dimly lit cargo bay, a pair of Secret Service vehicles idling nearby. When I asked about the prospect of Trump facing a different Democratic opponent in the fall, LaCivita and Wiles shook their heads. They told me it was too late; the most influential players in Democratic politics had become too invested in the narrative that Biden was fully competent and capable of serving another four years." However, "as we talked after the debate, it was apparent that they might have miscalculated. Elected Democrats were calling for Biden’s removal from the ticket." 
When Alberta asked Wiles how they would handle a Biden departure at this point, she said, “I don’t know. I don’t know.”
Of course they’re scared of Harris. Why wouldn’t they be? And why wouldn’t they announce it? Hmmmm? What strategy could they have in mind? 

It simply amazing what naive stenographers some journalists are. 

The Media Loves Their Molehills

Fair and balanced.
Led by David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern, the report indicates that the debate had little if any impact on people’s voting preference. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data,” reports Northeastern Global News, which is published by the University.“ 
Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. 
“My hope is that reporters look at this and say, ‘Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.’”
And go against the prevailing narrative? Yeah, right.
The report shows 94% of those surveyed who had said before the debate they were Biden supporters said they would continue to support the President. But just 86% of those who indicated support for Trump before the debate said they would continue to do so. 
“If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump,” Lazar added. 
Examining some “very minor shifts between the candidates,” Northeastern Global News reports, “1% of people who said they would vote for Biden before the debate, switched to preferring Trump, while 3% switched from Trump to Biden.” 
“Similarly, respondents who said they were unsure who they would vote for before the debate were slightly more likely to switch to preferring Biden after the debate.”   
A small percentage who indicated support for Biden or Trump pre-debate shifted to a third party candidate, but that was nearly offset by third-party candidate supporters switching to Biden or Trump post-debate. 
“Trump was convicted of a set of felonies,” Lazer told Northeastern Global News. “The impact it had on surveys was zero. Biden had a debate where most people said it proved he was too old. Survey respondents said, ‘Yeah, I saw that. He’s too old. I’m still voting for him.’ The numbers just aren’t moving.” 
The report examined responses from 1262 “repeat responders” from all 50 states and was conducted from June 16 through July 5. The study is titled: “No Change−Evaluating the Short-Term Impact of the Presidential Debate on Voter Preferences.”
But who are they against George Clooney and at least 8 named Democrats?

The View From 30,000 Feet

Once more, with feeling: 

A)  if it isn’t Harris, who pays for all the lawsuits to get ballot access/changes? 

B) If it isn’t Harris, what replaces the $240 million?

C) If it isn’t Harris, who has the name recognition?

D) What’s the record of success changing candidates this late in the year? LBJ did it in March, and HHH still couldn’t rally the troops.

This is such a bunch of crap from people who think real life is just like TeeVee.
Whom they’ve never heard of and probably don’t trust as far as they can throw them. And rather than an historic victory it’s 2016 redux as Democratic voters say “Fuck it!” and stay home. What Mike said. Except when the ship goes down it was the candidate’s fault (see Clinton, Hillary), and their Big Ideas cannot fail, but only be failed. Fritschner has a long thread there, worth reading, that makes two major points: political journalism is a herd practice; and “Dems in disarray” is a popular political journalism narrative. It is, indeed, up to we, the people. Not to the few, the elite, the scared of their own shadows. If Biden is going to win, it’s up to us to get him there, not up to him to win for us. It says a lot about the few, the scared, the mainly anonymous (“many Democrats say”) that they want someone certain to do it for them. Or unfit, incapable, and insane. There’s a whole campaign to be conducted between now and November. Maybe those points can be got across. Profile in courage. Yeah, let’s make these people our leaders to victory.

What could go wrong?πŸ˜‘