Tuesday, March 03, 2026

More Eggs For The Omelette

Do Trump’s words actually mean anything? The man with a plan. All of our friends in Iran are dead? And what makes him think he gets to choose? No. Clue. At. All. "I told Scott to cut off all dealings with Spain." We have treaties with Spain; and trade agreements. And agreements on the use and placement of military bases. None of which he can abrogate or set aside with a word. And if he uses the bases against Spanish agreements, it jeopardizes every base we have in the EU. At least. How to win friends and influence people. And the Supreme Court did what? The man is denser than depleted uranium. Britain isn’t dealing with FDR, either. Trump has absolutely no idea how government works.
Reporter: Thousands of Americans are stranded. Why wasn't there an evacuation plan?

Trump: Well, because it happened all very quickly, we thought, and I thought maybe more so than most. I could ask Marco, but I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel. They were getting ready to attack
How many weeks did it take to get weapons in the region for this attack? And how many ambassadors do we have in the region, outside of Israel and Saudi Arabia? I understand the answer is “none.” We also deeply cut embassy staff, the very people who could help Americans in these circumstances. And that’s not all he said.

You’ll also notice he said nothing about curing this problem. More eggs for the omelette, I guess.
Trump: We have massive amounts of ammunition. We have the high end. A lot of it was given away stupidly by Biden, very stupidly for free. We have unlimited middle and upper ammunition, which is really what we're using in this war. And we have a really an unlimited supply.

We also have a lot of the very high end stored in different countries throughout the world, where we're literally storing it there, which is actually something that I insisted on in my first term
"Unlimited” is a word a child would use. There are bubbles, and there is the impenetrable shield of malignant narcissism. Huh? So we’re back to this problem. Primal forces, Mr. Beale. That’s not going to end well for Trump. If his words mean anything. Stephen Miller is marking them for deportation. I’m guessing, Switzerland.🇨🇭 
Trump: This is not the age of Churchill. I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative with that stupid island that they have that they gave away and took 100 year lease having to do with perhaps indigenous people claiming the island that never even saw the island before. What's that all about?
Manifest destiny is the white man’s burden. Not what he thinks it means:
Sharia councils – also known as Sharia courts – have existed in the UK since the early 1980s. The Islamic Sharia Council (ISC) based in Leyton, East London, was established in 1982.

Its website states that it was formed to “solve the matrimonial problems of Muslims living in the United Kingdom in the light of Islamic family law”, for example marriages, divorce and inheritance issues. The ISC is a Registered Charity and not a formal court of law, and therefore only deals with the Islamic Nikah marriage ceremony rather than civil marriage contracts.

The ISC lists its broader Objectives as to be of assistance to Muslims in the UK by:

• fostering and encouraging the practice of the Muslim faith according to the Quran and the Sunnah;
• providing Advice and assistance in the operation of Muslim family life;
• establishing a bench of scholars to operate as the Islamic Sharia Council and to make decisions on matters of Muslim family law referred to it;
• promoting an enlightened practice of the Islamic faith by Muslims living in the UK;
• to educate the public generally regarding Islam and to dispel negative stereotypes.

Sharia councils have no official legal or constitutional role in the UK. Their work consists primarily of adjudicating on religious divorces, usually at the request of women. They may also give verdicts on other aspects of day-to- day life, for example on Sharia-compliant finance or on halal food.
IOW, they are established under British law. His favorite epithet. The POTUS has the vocabulary of a grade schooler.
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The Republicans Can’t Handle Smart Women

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Clusterfuck Squared

Further Evidence of a Misreading of the Iranian System

Recent statements coming out of Washington reinforce a troubling possibility: that key elements within the administration fundamentally misunderstand how the Iranian system operates.

It is true that ideology is central to the Islamic Republic. But ideology has never operated in isolation from regime survival. Iran’s Supreme Leader, despite his rigid public posture — consistently made pragmatic decisions when regime preservation was at stake.

The 2015 nuclear agreement is a case in point. Khamenei, who routinely described the United States as the “Great Satan,” nonetheless authorized direct negotiations with Washington when sanctions pressure threatened economic and political stability. That decision was not ideological moderation — it was strategic calculation.

Even after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, the killing of Qassem Soleimani the "lost son" of Khamenei(an important move that significantly undermine the axis) and allowed Israeli strikes on nuclear infrastructure during negotiations, Khamenei still permitted indirect and, at times, direct engagement with U.S. officials.

The pattern was clear: confrontation and negotiation were tools, not contradictions.

It is also worth recalling that in 2003 Iran halted aspects of its military nuclear program amid fears of potential U.S. invasion following the Iraq War. That decision reflected cost-benefit analysis, not ideological transformation.

These are not historical footnotes. They matter because they demonstrate that the Iranian leadership — even at its most ideologically rigid — has historically behaved as a rational, survival-driven actor.

If current U.S. strategy assumes that the regime will either capitulate under pressure or fracture internally in predictable ways, that assumption rests on a questionable analytical foundation.

The present Iranian leadership is unlikely to surrender or voluntarily dismantle its strategic programs. On the contrary, it may conclude that expanding missile capabilities and advancing toward nuclear threshold status — or beyond — is the most reliable way to deter future attacks and ensure regime continuity.

Equally concerning is the apparent expectation in some policy circles that the IRGC might splinter or “raise its hands” under pressure. The Guard Corps is not merely a military institution; it is an ideological, economic, and political pillar of the state. Betting on rapid institutional defection reflects limited appreciation of its embeddedness within the system.

Even regime change, should it occur, would not automatically resolve the nuclear issue. Iran’s nuclear program did not begin with the Islamic Republic; it began under the Shah. The technological base, scientific infrastructure, and national framing of nuclear capability as a sovereign right predate the current regime.

There are strategic challenges that cannot be resolved through kinetic means alone. More importantly, Iran retains the indigenous capacity to rebuild critical elements of its program under a wide range of future political scenarios.

The United States possesses extraordinary analytical expertise on Iran — across academia, intelligence, and policy institutions. It is essential that decision-makers fully integrate that expertise. Strategic miscalculation rooted in incomplete understanding could lock Washington into an escalation path built on flawed assumptions.
It’s just magical thinking. Or magical non-thinking.  Or rather, Trump is mired in Vietnam with the “silent majority.” Only this time it’s LBJ and McNamara, and the conviction that “American military superiority” would lead to victory over the “little brown men in black pajamas.” “Waist deep in the Big Muddy, and the big fool says ‘Move on.’ ” (Sorry, Lemire. It’s got bugger all to do with “idealism.” In fact, idealism” was the magical thinking of “American military superiority.”) Even the WSJ is more clear-eyed than that: Considering who's in charge:
New: The strike yesterday in Kuwait that has now claimed the lives of six US service members was a direct hit on a makeshift operations center — in what was described as a triple wide trailer — at the port of Shuaiba, a source familiar said. The strike came so quickly there were no sirens or warning to allow troops to evacuate to a bunker ahead of time.

Thinking of them and their loved ones.
“That’s the way it is.”—Donald J. Trump 

How’s that omelette? Taste pretty good?

Well, anyway, when this is all over, we’ll have forgotten about the Epstein files, right?
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Like Every Construction Project I’ve Ever Known About

And the war in Iran is ahead of schedule. Or will last five weeks. Or, hell, who knows? Except we are running out of capacity to defeat missiles and drones. And that ability already costs more than twice the cost of the offensive weapons. We knew this, we still started this war.

Very similar to this:
Rep. Keith Self: "All of the members of Congress that are bellyaching need to stop it. We've got young Americans in harm's way today. If you've got a complaint, let's deal with it afterwards, but right now if Congress wants to do something, let's get the defense industrial base moving faster.
The sunk cost fallacy. “We’ve already spent this much. We can’t stop now.” It’s what makes construction projects go from $2 million to $4 million to whatever the cost to finish ends up being.

Pretty much what kept the Vietnam War going for 20 years, in a nutshell. Except we didn’t even have a treaty obligation to start this. It was totally our choice. We can always undo it. So don’t bring this lame ass shit.
Just say "No."
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Who The Hell’s On First?

"I Don’t Know!” “THIRD BASE!”
Trump: "See that nice drape? When that comes down right now you see a very very deep hole, but in about a year and half you're gonna see a very very beautiful building. And there's your entrance to it right there. In fact, it looks so nice I think I'll leave it and save money on the doors. I picked those drapes. I always liked gold. I believe it will be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world."
Trump interrupted a ceremony bestowing the Congressional Medal of Honor to yammer about his ballroom. Trump will never run for elected office again. Tuberville wants to be governor of Alabama. Neither is worthy of any elected office.
Jennings: The president did release two statements over the weekend.

Phillip: On social media

Jennings: So? Is that a problem?

Phillip: He hasn't really laid out fully what the strategy is he's given. He's given probably over a dozen interviews over the last two days. And he's said contradictory things in almost every single interview.

Jennings: Give me an example

Rogin: He said we want regime change, we don't want regime change. He said, we know the people that we're going to replace the ayatollah with. Then he said, they killed them. He said, we want the people of Iran to rise up and free themselves and fight the regime. And then he said, we're happy to work with the regime remnants if somebody emerges.
"They were fixin’ to get around to it!” Remember when Trump could sell ice to Eskimos?
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Monday, March 02, 2026

But We Couldn’t Tell Congress, Because…

... we don’t have to.
Here's my take on #Doltskreig, the stupid and illegal war that Donald Trump has launched in the Middle East.

It makes no sense.

Is the idea to re-obliterate a nuclear program Trump claims he already obliterated?

Does he really expect the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the remaining mullahs to surrender their AK-47s to nobody in particular on the streets of Tehran?

Which is it: (a) is @realDonaldTrump really that stupid? (b) does he really think *we're* that stupid? (c) is this really just an attempt to distract from the Epstein (at least that would kinda make sense)?

Or (d) all of the above?
Regular readers know the correct answer is: “Yes.” And in the annals of "completely lacking self-awareness.”
Trump: "The White House Correspondents Association has asked me, very nicely, to be the Honoree at this year’s Dinner, a long and storied tradition since it began in 1924, under then President Calvin Coolidge. In honor of our Nation’s 250th Birthday, and the fact that these 'Correspondents' now admit that I am truly one of the Greatest Presidents in the History of our Country, the G.O.A.T., according to many, it will be my Honor to accept their invitation, and work to make it the GREATEST, HOTTEST, and MOST SPECTACULAR DINNER, OF ANY KIND, EVER! Because the Press was extraordinarily bad to me, FAKE NEWS ALL, right from the beginning of my First Term, I boycotted the event, and never went as Honoree. However, I look forward to being with everyone this year. Hopefully, it will be something very Special. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
I hope they cook the motherfucker until he’s crispy, and either strokes out, or stalks out. I am perfectly serious.
Trump: "The Radical Left Democrats, a Party that has completely lost its way, are complaining bitterly about the very necessary and important attack, by the United States and Israel, on Iran. What most people understand is that they are only complaining BECAUSE I DID IT and, if I didn’t do it, they would be screaming — Why didn’t 'TRUMP' attack Iran, he should do it, IMMEDIATELY? There’s nothing surprising about this! It’s the same people that the other night at The State of the Union Address wouldn’t stand for ANYBODY, including a mother who lost her beautiful daughter to an illegal alien, a Great and Brave Helicopter Pilot, who got the Congressional Medal of Honor, or a 100-year-old Veteran Warrior whose Bravery is Legend! The fact is, whatever I do, they will be on the opposite side. These people are SICK, CRAZY, and DEMENTED, but America, despite them all, is now BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
This, all of this, is perfectly normal and unremarkable. Hilarious unless you’re an actual human being; in that case, Mullin is just ghoulish.
Trump: "If I didn’t terminate Obama’s horrendous Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), Iran would have had a Nuclear Weapon three years ago. That was the most dangerous transaction we have ever entered into, and had it been allowed to stand, the World would be an entirely different place right now. You can blame Barack Hussein Obama, and Sleepy Joe Biden. THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!"
Where “different” means “better.” "Maybe they'll get lucky and get someone who knows what they're doing.” When do we get that lucky again? Uh, yeah. "Where have all the flowers gone?”

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
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The “Deep State” Is Real

And is anybody old enough to remember this? I don't think that came up as a reason in the DOD press conference. Gotta break those eggs. 🤔

The Deep State is also broken:
Maj. Gen. Randy Manner (Ret.), who is currently stranded in the UAE: "One of the small things that does matter to tens of thousands of people here as well as their families -- it's a little bit disheartening to hear that the UK govt is arranging transport for the British citizens, whereas here as Americans we feel abandoned. The State Dept is in survival mode because as we know the administration reduced their budget by almost half."
Meanwhile: Points 3 and 4 will indeed take longer than 5 weeks. Which makes this even more relevant.
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The Sound Of Silence

Pretty sure that’s all underway.
Trump's lethal, interventionalist presidency -> No president in the modern era has ordered more military strikes against as many different countries as Trump. He's attacked seven nations, three of which — Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela — had never been targeted by U.S. military.
Not according to our Resolute Leader:
"We had very serious negotiations, and they were there, and then they pulled back,” he said. “They wanted to make a nuclear weapon, so we destroyed them completely, but we found they were in a totally different site — totally different — because the sites that we took out were permanent. They tried to use them, but they were totally, as I said correctly before, obliterated, right? So then we found them working on a totally different area, a totally different site, in order to make a nuclear weapon through enrichment — so it was just time.”

“I said, ‘Let’s go,'" he added.
The build up was massive, and took weeks. You don't assemble that kind of firepower and then say "Never mind."
Polling conducted by Reuters/Ipsos Saturday and Sunday found just 27 percent of Americans approved of the strikes, but Trump said he believes the public broadly supports his decision.
Because, of course he does.
“I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling," Trump said. "I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago."

“I don’t think the polling is low,” he added. “Look, whether polling is low or not, I think the polling is probably fine. But it’s not a question of polling. You cannot let Iran, who’s a nation that has been run by crazy people, have a nuclear weapon. I think people are very impressed with what is happening, actually. I think it’s a silent — if you did a real poll, the silent poll — and it’s like a silent majority.”
Once again, he’s Nixon in the late ‘60’s. Nixon was referring to a war, too. Except that war, in the’70’s, had more support than this one does, now. Especially considering McGovern ran in ‘72 on the premise of getting America out if foreign wars, and got shellacked. And Trump promised to not start any wars, but he’s started several, including a war on American citizens.

That “silent majority” he’s referring to, is neither. He’s just whistling past the graveyard, because he doesn’t know what else to do.

And besides: polls don’t mean anything, but the polls show approval (he says). But if they don’t, it doesn’t matter; because the “real poll” is the “silent majority.” And silence= approval.

Unless you aren’t listening.
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HAN SHOT FIRST!!

This suggests that some very senior US officials lied to journalists in their background briefing a couple of days ago.

"Trump administration officials told congressional staff in private briefings Sunday that U.S. intelligence did not suggest Iran was preparing to launch a preemptive strike against the U.S., three people familiar with the briefings said."
Trump is basically calling up every journalist in his phone to workshop different timelines and goals for his war. In the past two days:

@washingtonpost : the aim is "freedom for the people" of Iran

@axios : maybe we can "end it in two or three days" with a deal

@nytimes : might be "four to five weeks", I have "three very good choices" who might take control in Iran

@abc : actually, nevermind, we killed those choices

He doesn't sound convinced by any of it. He's throwing spaghetti at the wall. Ultimately I suspect he just wants to say he "solved" a problem that has vexed every American president since Jimmy Carter.

But there's no clear idea what that looks like and no plan for how to get there. And there are plenty of possible scenarios in which Trump declares victory and leaves the region with an absolute mess
[Trump shrugs.] (On a British airbase there.)

Is it worth it, yet? When does Trump appoint the new head of government and start taking the oil?
Any day now, I guess.
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Sunday, March 01, 2026

The Chaos Is Coming From Inside The President’s Brain

Whatever allows him to put this behind him. He’s tired of playing with this toy.
1. We invaded not because the threat was imminent, but because it was not. Iran was weak.
2. The negotiations were a pretext.
3. There was no day after plan. This is, after all, the "let's-see-what-happens" presidency.
4. Hoping the Iranian people will rise up is not a strategy.
5. This is a giant step toward getting more embroiled in the Middle East, exactly what he promised not to do.
The scary part is, I don’t think Trump understands that. Are we reassured yet? About the price of eggs, I mean.
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.

"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
Everything he knows about regime change, he learned from Venezuela. See? "Deal” is the only concept he knows, and he doesn’t understand that correctly. No more than he understands government. Not the flex he thinks it is. Especially when he excludes “the brains.” They really don’t understand how this is done, do they? Because, beyond “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran,” it’s perfectly clear that there is no plan.

And Art. I, sec. 8, cl. 11, doesn’t include the phrase “…unless the President has a plan….”
Still.
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Future’s So Bright…😎

(Cruz is not up for reelection.) (Nobody could have foreseen.)

Speaking of unforeseen:
Hey, everybody! We’re making omelets! Let’s break some eggs! Trump hasn’t spoken in public for days. He’s only seen in videos, and in this one, he can’t speak. 🤔 And it gets worse (this may be the same video):
In a six-minute video posted on Truth Social, Trump said "thousands" of Iranian regime guards and police have called him and asked for immunity. Trump added that he would give them "full immunity" if they surrendered.

Former CIA Director John Brennan discussed Trump's offer on MS NOW with host Chris Jansing.

"I don't understand what he means by that because there's going to be a lot of bloodletting inside of Iran," Brennan said. "All of the slaughter, unfortunately, that took place at the hands of the regime, with the protests and demonstrators. There's going to be some accountability and a day of reckoning inside of Iran."

On Saturday, the U.S. and Israel coordinated a series of strikes against several sites in Iran. The operation took out multiple military assets and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the brutal dictator who had ruled the country since 1989.

Brennan added that Trump seemed to be trying to give the Iranian guards a way to escape accountability, which is something he can't guarantee.

"And there's no way that Donald Trump can say, 'Okay, if you surrender now, all of you individuals who have massacred Iranian citizens, you're going to be just absolved of any type of accountability and responsibility,'" Brennan said. "So again, this is really messy. It's going to get worse in the days and weeks to come. I really feel for the Iranian people."
Does Trump imagine he’s now the Supreme Ruler of Iran by some kind of commutative principle? Or is he so stupid he doesn’t understand that Iran is a separate country with a separate government and population, and separate laws? And why would they “surrender” in the first place? So they can get 400 virgins in the paradise of America, their “afterlife” for surrendering to…whom? The missile launchers in other countries? American military personnel on bases in those countries?

The man’s brain is pudding. 

(Brennan assumes Trump is rational, to some degree. I don’t. I think he thinks the IRG will “surrender” and the Iranian people will act like Americans in 1776. The way Trump imagines they acted. Brennan assumes Trump means the surrender to come at the end of hostilities. Trump thinks that’s how he’ll end hostilities. And soon; he’s already bored.)
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But Bibi! And Saudi Arabia!

Trump has always been a fucking idiot, useful only to other countries.

ETTD is an iron rule of the universe. 
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Or….

...not. Didn’t we already win? No fair! We sank their battleship! 

($15 million apiece! Time to throw some more people of good stamps. Maybe close some more rural hospitals, for good measure.)
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Tom Homan Wants To Correct The Pontiff About Church Doctrine

I am following with deep concern what is happening in the Middle East and in Iran during this tumultuous time. Stability and peace are not achieved through mutual threats, nor through the use of weapons, which sow destruction, suffering, and death, but only through reasonable, sincere, and responsible dialogue.
Faced with the possibility of a tragedy of immense proportions, I make a heartfelt appeal to all the parties involved to assume the moral responsibility of halting the spiral of violence before it becomes an unbridgeable chasm. May diplomacy regain its proper role, and may the well-being of peoples, who yearn for peaceful existence founded on justice, be upheld. And let us continue to pray for peace.
Besides, we gotta kill the “right” people! It’s the Murkan way! 🇺🇸
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EOD

What is the endgame here? Didn’t we already do that? So what are we doing now? The bombings will continue until Bibi tells Trump it’s over? MAGA! And apres, the fall...
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With Friends Like This…

!!!! So, “America First” is a death cult? It’s not the President’s job to? And the Congress has no say? So, is it up to Bibi and Mohammed bin Salman?

With friends like these, MAGA doesn’t need any enemies. Also, is dementia just a concomitant of aging in office? Because Lindsey’s bulb is just getting dimmer and dimmer.
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Dear Lindsay:

God bless @POTUS for planning and now executing Operation Epic Fury, making America more safe and eventually more prosperous. I seek God’s protection for all under President Trump’s command, as well as our allies in Israel.

My mind is racing with the thought that the murderous ayatollah’s regime in Iran will soon be no more. The biggest change in the Middle East in a thousand years is upon us. The likelihood of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel getting back on track is exceedingly high – a subject I brought up last week to the key players in the region who concurred if the ayatollah goes down, historic peace advances.

As to the men and women participating in this operation for our country and Israel, may God bless you and keep you safe. If you are injured or fall, I believe with all my heart that your sacrifice makes your country and the world a better and safer place. This moment is why you chose to serve.

This operation has been well-planned. It will be violent, extensive and I believe, at the end of the day, successful. Again the demise of the ayatollah’s regime with American blood on its hands is necessary and more than justified.
Yeah, about that...
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In Time Of War

Now, wait a minute. 

The U.S. and Israel (with the urging of Saudi Arabia) start a war with Iran, kill the Supreme Leader, and he’s replaced with a leader expected to be ever so much more so? 

Color me shocked and surprised! 😳 Who’d a thunk it? Doesn’t 24 hours of heavy, unprovoked bombing always result in immediate surrender and a complete change of heart by the populace and the government? Hasn’t all the violence in the Middle East made it the most pacifist region in the world? I mean, none of those characteristics listed in the tweet apply to Netanyahu after all the violence Israel has suffered. Right?
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Saturday, February 28, 2026

These Are The Times That Try Men’s Souls

I can’t believe I have to keep saying this…
Khamenei is dead. Good.

But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.

Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.

As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.
But continuity of government is not an evil scheme by villains to thwart the forces of good. Venezuela still functions without Maduro. And it’s not because they made a “deal” with Trump. He hardly cares what happens there, anymore. Is it a surprise that Iran is a functioning government comparable to any in Europe or America, at least in its “contingency plans”?  I don’t like the way it functions, but this “head of the snake” analogy/analysis is for the birds. We didn’t have the 25th amendment when Lincoln was assassinated in a theater, nor when JFK was shot on the streets of Dallas. The deaths were shocking, but no one expected the government to suddenly collapse. In neither case did we have the formal chain of succession that we have now.

The real problem is the common level of stupid on the internet. So many people who seem to think government is what Trump thinks it is: a simple arrangement of one person in power and everyone else subservient. Remove that person, and the house of cards collapses until a new person puts it back together again. Maybe we just imagine that countries we know next to nothing about are “primitive” compared to us or Western Europe. Although some just hate Iran for their own reasons. But that just makes their analysis more suspect.

It’s a little scary how easy it is for most people to think like Trump.
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O Sweet Grim Fucking Death ☠️

That last post was getting too damned long. War is good for the arms manufacturers. Besides, we got ‘em! Might as well use ‘em! Sorry, you’re not taking account of American exceptionalism. Please hang up and call back later. By killing everyone who doesn’t agree with you? MAGA in a nutshell. Trump can’t be expected to miss his fundraiser tonight for a little thing like a war! Right?
The Assassination of #Khamenei – Initial Implications

A. A Foundational Event for the Regime For more than three decades, Khamenei shaped the ideological, institutional, and strategic character of the Islamic Republic. His death is not merely a leadership transition — it is a foundational event that could shake the entire structure of the regime.

B. The Succession Mechanism – Theory vs. Reality
According to the constitution, the Assembly of Experts is responsible for convening and appointing a new Supreme Leader. In practice, this has happened only once (1989), and even then the decision was effectively shaped behind the scenes through political understandings among key power brokers. It is therefore likely that the real decision will again be made within a narrow circle of elites rather than through a purely formal process.

C. The Future of the Doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih
Beyond the identity of the successor lies a deeper question: the future status of the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. Will Iran maintain the model of a strong, centralized Supreme Leader as shaped by Khamenei, or could the system evolve toward a more collective or limited leadership structure? This will be a crucial test for the regime’s ideological continuity.

D. A Succession Vacuum
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi — widely viewed as a leading candidate for succession — deepened the uncertainty. Names previously mentioned as potential successors include:
Hassan Khomeini – grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, perceived as relatively moderate. Sadeq Larijani – a senior institutional figure.
Hassan Rouhani – former president, though his relationship with Khamenei was complex Mojtaba Khamenei – the Supreme Leader’s son, long rumored as a possible candidate.
At present, no clear consensus candidate exists.

E. A Major Shock — But Not Necessarily Regime Collapse
Khamenei was a central pillar of the system, yet the regime rests on multiple power centers, foremost among them the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC has significant political, military, and economic interests in preserving the current order and possesses the capacity to stabilize the system if needed.

F. Low Probability of Immediate Dramatic Change
In the absence of an organized and capable opposition, and given the relative cohesion of Iran’s security elites, most assessments would suggest that even such a dramatic event is unlikely to trigger immediate revolutionary change. Rather, it may lead to an internal recalibration process.

G. Interim Leadership or Rapid Appointment?
A critical question is whether a temporary coordinating figure will be appointed until a permanent successor is selected, or whether a swift appointment will be made to project stability and continuity. The decision will reflect the balance of power among competing factions.

H. Regional and Religious Implications
Will Iran’s regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah, escalate as part of a narrative of revenge? Will senior Shiite clerical authorities — such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq — issue religious rulings framing retaliation as a duty? The response of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” will serve as an important indicator of post-event regime cohesion and control.

I. Implications for Negotiations with the West
If the regime survives and stabilizes, it is unlikely to project flexibility in the near term. On the contrary, it may adopt a more hardline posture in order to signal strength and consolidate internal legitimacy.

J. The Beginning of a Different Era Khamenei’s death would mark the historical end of a distinct era — but it remains unclear whether any internal actors will be able or willing to leverage the moment for structural transformation. But, even if the regime endures, Iran may emerge different, with a recalibrated internal balance of power and altered leadership dynamics.

Conclusion:
This would be a dramatic event with the potential to reshape both Iran’s internal political order and the broader regional landscape. However, the strength of state institutions, the IRGC, and the absence of a viable alternative political force suggest that any change — if it occurs — is more likely to be gradual and managed rather than immediate and revolutionary.
In brief: this assault is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Maybe Bibi keeps his job, but it’s at the expense of taxpayers in two countries.
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