Thursday, October 15, 2026

🀫

The sound of silence.
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The Sunk Cost Fallacy

El-Sayed: Trump’s neat trick is to become the subject of every conversation and to force people to take sides. And here’s the thing about it: once you take sides, he’s forcing you to double down on crazier and crazier stuff. And soon enough, you’re out here signing on to a bunch of things that, like three years ago, you’re like, “That’s insane.”

But here’s the problem: you don’t want to have to face down that one friend who’s going to tell you, “I told you so.”

And so what happens is that you keep doubling down on the craziest stuff. And you find yourself so far gone up that tree that there’s no way you can climb down. We’ve got to help those folks. Because guess what? They’re paying for $5 gas too. They’re paying insane diesel prices too. They can’t see a doctor either
And one way to overcome it.

Or, you can be like Trump: Or more like John McCain, who actually had lucid moments.
MacCallum: If you want to be on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, you have to be able to understand who is our enemy and who is our ally.

Trent: Our president is currently making deals with Russia and praises North Korean dictators.

MacCallum: You’re saying it’s ok if El-Sayed is friends with the Muslim Brotherhood?

Trent: I think it’s ok to be in favor of the Arab spring. Do you know who was in favor of the Arab spring and cheered on the Muslim Brotherhood? John McCain.
And valiantly upholding the standard that every accusation is a confession: Utterly incapable of self-awareness or understanding the concept of irony.
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Good Luck With That

So this just hit my inbox:

Steven Crowder says he's suing CNN, Jubilee and James Talarico for using the phrase "Change My Mind" during last night's town hall.

“I don’t want our trademarked brand, logo and format to be used for James Talarico to associate and ingratiate himself with right-wing voters,” he said. “Once you rip it off and use it for propaganda, I now have a problem, and I have to come for everything!”
So every time someone says “Change my mind,” they owe you a licensing fee? And you trademarked two people sitting at a table having a discussion? Do you expect royalties from every restaurant in America, and from every depiction of characters in a restaurant in movies and TV shows?

Good luck with that.

According to Google AI, the “Jubilee” in the broadcast referred to Jubilee Media. According to Google:
Modelled after Jubilee's popular conversational video format, the segment put Talarico sitting directly across from skeptical Republicans, independents, and voters to debate hard-hitting topics like abortion, faith, housing costs, and immigration.
Oh, and:
The special broadcast used a merged or co-branded look featuring CNN's signature aesthetic alongside Jubilee's discussion-style stage setup.
I know there’s a logo in Crowder’s tweet, but I think he created that one. I haven’t seen it anywhere else.

So, Crowder, tell the Ellison’s “Hi!” I’m sure they’ll want to see you get fair compensation for your injury.

πŸ™„
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The Funny Part…

... is Miller thinks anybody in Texas hears this middle school shit.πŸ’© Or cares.
Undecided Texas voter: I was really impressed with Talarico this evening.

I found a more balanced politician. I was surprised at how centrist he was on many of the issues, and I think that has brought me to a deeper understanding.

I liked that he responded to me. I like that he invited us to sit down and challenge him.
Q: Talarico said he would stand up to his own party. Do you believe him?

Texas Voter: I do. I think Talarico is kind of the bright light... He seems to me to be someone with integrity, and integrity in politics has been on the decline.

I see him almost as that light on a hill to bring us back to politicians who are voting in alignment with their conscience, their morals, and doing what’s best for their constituents.
I listened to the entire 90 minutes of that town hall in Fort Worth, Texas. Nobody questioned Talarico’s gender. Not once.

Funny, that.
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So….

...it’s finally getting through my thick skull that the Fed’s superpower is to slow economic activity in order to (eventually) stall rising prices.

I mean, I knew that, intellectually, because I lived through the Volcker era, when states had to repeal their usury laws so credit cards could raise interest rates to 25%. (Yes, Virginia, there was a time when such interest rates were illegal. O, what a paradise it seems.) But the source of inflation now is painfully obvious: the Iran war, and Trump tariffs.

And it seems the only thing we can do is expect the Fed to make economic activity more expensive.

No wonder people are so pissed off.
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πŸ‘ΆπŸ‘ΆπŸ‘Ά

Roman women getting jobs? Or having a lot more babies? I’m confused.

And here I thought the empire fell for the same reason empires fall: a central power exploiting resources from the fringes of the empire, which inevitably can’t sustain those increasing demands for exploitable resources. Turns out it was Roman women with careers? Or having babies?

I’m still not sure about this. (I am quite sure about her implicit racism that white women aren’t bearing enough white babies, now, or in the days of the Roman Empire.)
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This Is Why I’m Not Too Concerned…

...about polls.

The models are all based on history, but use that, and “science,” to predict the future. As Hume pointed out, that’s not prediction, it’s just expectation. And when the future that was predicted turns into the past without ever meeting expectations, like soothsayers of old, pollsters always a reason the prediction wasn’t wrong, the understanding of it was.

The model cannot fail, it can only be failed. Most of the time the model is right; it’s the people who misunderstood it who are wrong. And oh, how often they misunderstand.

The Delphic Oracle was successful for so long because it understood this. Its schtick was to be gnomic. Or it came out that because the Oracle was stoned out of its mind and didn’t know what it was saying. Opinions differ.

The future remains the place nobody’s ever seen, nor really knows anything about.
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πŸ‘¨‍🦽

Trump doesn’t want to live stream the execution of a man in a wheelchair who’s going to have his chest and back blown open?

I can’t imagine why….
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On The Front

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine struck a Russian airfield in the Voronezh region overnight, destroying four Su-34 fighter bombers and damaging two more, releasing an aerial photo showing burn scars on an airport ramp. He said the aircraft were loaded with bombs and ready for new attacks on Ukraine. The strike used an R-360 "Long Neptune" missile, and Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian Navy. The Navy named the target as Borisoglebsk airfield and said six Su-34Ms were destroyed, along with aviation support equipment.

Zelensky also said Ukraine hit a drone storage and launch site in the Oryol region and a target in the Black Sea. He said long range operations will continue because Russia is prolonging the war.

The Su-34 is one of the key aircraft Russia uses to launch guided glide bombs at Ukrainian positions and frontline towns.
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If Trump Was A Russian Agent…

How would you tell the difference? He’s certainly not telling Putin what to do.
This, as Russia has tried to characterize Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chagrin towards recent actions by U.S. President Donald J. Trump, as it relates to intelligence sharing/Starlink access and Russian sanctions waivers, as being oppositional to a wider peace process.
Who felt the pressure? Meanwhile, back in the White House:
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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

(No) More, (No) More!

He’s as violent as a stuffed teddy bear housing a box of Don Rickles’ insults attached to a string. We don’t know, either. Plenty of work for Montana cowboys, right? Or you can serve the engineers and technicians in the restaurants while they drive up the cost of housing. The string of hecklers at rallies remains unbroken. Well, for the people he knows. Time for bed, Grandpa. He’s retreated fully into his megalomania. I don’t know. The reviews have included a lot of in-audience critics.
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Why I Am NOT A Politician

 Listening to Talarico’s “Jubilee Town Hall” (Jubilee? Are we forgiving all debts and return all land to the Native Americans?), I was impressed, and realized why I’m not a public official.

Long before I went to seminary, I knew a semi-retired pastor who’d done what many did in those days (do they still? Probably.), taken up the Ronin task of temporarily serving congregations that were between pastors. “Intentional interims” have distinct duties and distinct freedoms. This guy reveled in his ability to be politely (and diplomatically) honest. He told the story of a Severe Churchgoing Woman who upbraided his theology as Not The Right Kind and questioned whether he truly worshipped God. He happily told her, “Madam, I am quite sure I don’t worship the God you do.”

Interims can get away with that shit. Old men tend to speak their minds, too. Like yours truly. It’s not the best thing, but sometimes I don’t care.

Talarico was asked if he believed Jesus was the only savior. His answer was appropriately non-controversial. Even the Lovely Wife spoke up in disagreement with the questioner: “She’s just talking about Paul.”  True, filtered through John, who was fighting to distinguish his Jewish group from the other Jews around, all of whom were having a bad enough time after the second fall of Jerusalem. And Paul was really much more ecumenical than John comes across (although there is the woman at the well….).

Me, I’d have flatly said: “No.” Because I had to answer that question more diplomatically and carefully 25 (!) years ago. And now I don’t have to.

There was another person who I would have flatly argued with, but I can’t even remember the question now (I will tonight, just as I fall asleep. 😴 And then I’ll be awake for an hour….). The point being, whatever diplomacy I ever had, it was never enough to make it in politics.

Let me go at it this way;

The entirety of the Hebrew Scriptures say that. Here is just one example:
11And he said, Go forth, and stand upon the mount before the LORD. And, behold, the LORD passed by, and a great and strong wind rent the mountains, and brake in pieces the rocks before the LORD; but the LORD was not in the wind: and after the wind an earthquake; but the LORD was not in the earthquake: 12And after the earthquake a fire; but the LORD was not in the fire: and after the fire a still small voice. 13And it was so, when Elijah heard it, that he wrapped his face in his mantle, and went out, and stood in the entering in of the cave. And, behold, there came a voice unto him, and said, What doest thou here, Elijah? 14And he said, I have been very jealous for the LORD God of hosts: because the children of Israel have forsaken thy covenant, thrown down thine altars, and slain thy prophets with the sword; and I, even I only, am left; and they seek my life, to take it away.
1 Kings 19:11-14

What’s described there is a theophany: the creation reacting to presence of the Creator. God is present in the creation, but God is not in the creation. There is the creation, and there is the Creator; but they are not coterminous, nor homoousias (or homoiousias). But where does that get us? On Sinai Moses stands in the glory of God, and the thunder on the mountaintop scares the shit out of the Israelites. They hide in their tents. Isaiah sees God  in the heavenly throne room, but only sees God’s glory. Ezekiel sees God leave Jerusalem in a chariot throne (mobility and royalty), but again, sees only God’s glory. So what does God even look like? One of the scandals of Xianity was (still is), that God was present in identifiably human form (Abraham saw God at the oaks of Mambre, but God came as three travelers, all of which were God and not God, at the same time. Holy mysteries are very old.). Xianity still struggles to explain the Incarnation.

God is not a human category. EOD. To say otherwise is blasphemy. Well, to believers. That’s not a universal statement applicable to all. Besides, how do we understand except in human categories? And yet, to believers, God is not reducible to a human category.

Now you see why I’m not a politician? And yet we make politicians give us simple answers, and then berate them for “pandering” when they do.*

*CNN had a discussion after the town hall. One member (I was listening, on the radio, not watching) agreed Paxton was crooked as a dog’s hind leg, but he was the Republican candidate Trump endorsed and, besides, Talarico had changed his position on something, and that was more unacceptable. If Paxton was the Democratic candidate, I’d vote for the Republican, or not vote. And Talarico modified his position to be more palatable to more people. I don’t have a problem with that. I’m just too much of an asshole and an old crank to do that. But it’s mostly the former; the latter is pretty recent.
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Rogue AI πŸ€– Did It

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😡‍πŸ’«

Trump: My wife says, you shouldn't be dancing on the stage, by the way. You should walk off with a gentle wave. Goodbye. When the gay national anthem plays, you know, it's called the gay national anthem, actually. I got the highest gay vote of any Republican in history. She said, 'You should not dance off the stage, my darling.'

And don't talk about the swimming. Where you look left and you look right, and then you look a little further right and you see the largest human being you've ever seen. Larger than Shaquille O'Neal, with a bigger reach.

And the swimmer got hurt badly because she suffered massive wind burn. Because the giant to her right swam by her so fast that the wind was unbelievable. For the rest of her life, she'll be suffering from windburn.
🀷‍♂️ πŸ™„
😡‍πŸ’«
🀫
πŸ€•
Trump: It's called a cog-a-nit-ta-tive test. Very tough. There are few people in this audience — once you get past the first question, they show you a lion, a bear, a giraffe and a snake. And they say, which one is the lion?

By the time to get to the middle, they are hard. By the end, you have to be very smart. Like take a number, any number. Triple it. Divide by four. Add 37. Add 293. Subtract 12. Multiply by two. Divide by three. What is your number? I got it right. Nobody gets it right. They don't tell you about that.

Or they give you five words — no one up there can do any of those things. They give you five words, and you don't know what they are doing. At the end of the test, a half-hour later, they do it again. You don't know that. Five words. Hat, hair logo, white, black. Please repeat them. Hat, hair, logo, white, black. You got it right.

They go, holy shit. Nobody can do that. Very few people could do that.
Quit while you’re ahead. πŸ₯±
πŸ«ͺ

I wasn’t aware our country owned an oil company.
He’d better hurry. Voting in Texas starts Monday. Not many minds going to change by now. Maybe he can remind us he’s going to stop all payments to insurance companies, and let us do it; or something.
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America Controls The Strait Of Hormuz

And the cost in personnel and munitions is totally worth it!

Or something….
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There Is No 25th Amendment Remedy

There is no impeachment and removal remedy.

Congress holds the whip hand in most things; over the President, over the Supreme Court. They threw away the impeachment/removal threat over a century ago. But they can lame duck the shit out of Trump, starting in January.

Professor Vladeck has a book coming in the spring that details what Congress can do to the Supremes. His first book was about how much rope Congress gave the Court in the early 20th century. What Congress giveth, Congress can taketh away. I’m looking forward to his analysis of that.

There is a LOT Congress can do. After the last two years, the next two are likely to look like FDR’s first term, or Johnson’s entire tenure.


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Patterns

😈 I’m sensing a pattern here…. More than one, actually. And speaking of new voters: I’m kind of surprised Trump isn’t upset about this. Those 500,000 registrants could have been GOP voters. Statistically, they probably were.

And then there’s the really big picture pattern everyone is aware of:
Well, everyone except the White House. They’re always the last to know.
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Ego Is Hungry!

And stunningly incompetent.
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This Seems To Be Happening A Lot

Meanwhile:
Ukraine says SpaceX has put new speed limits on military grade Starlink terminals without warning, disrupting some missions, according to multiple outlets. SpaceX hasn’t commented.

The affected service is StarShield, a Starlink subscription for government and military use. The Journal reports Ukraine’s access runs under a Defense Department contract. A Pentagon spokesman referred questions to President Trump’s remarks on intelligence sharing.

Zelensky adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said the limit began overnight and forces got no warning. Accounts of the threshold vary. Beskrestnov and a Ukrainian defense ministry official point to about 160 km/h (100 mph), while Ukraine’s 7th Corps told Reuters connections dropped for 10 to 20 seconds at just 110 to 120 km/h. Units cancelled some missions.

Per the Journal, drones can still fly but video feeds are less reliable, especially against moving targets, and they must fly slower to stay connected, making them easier to hit. Midrange drones are harder to launch, and Ukrainian officials say Starlink had recently helped Ukraine intercept Russia’s jet powered drones. Slower ground drones are largely unaffected.

Drones flying over Russia were already barred from StarShield and use other guidance, so strikes on Russian oil and diesel production are unlikely to be affected, officials and defense executives told the Journal.

The limit comes as Washington presses Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries. Trump said Tuesday the U.S. is still sharing intelligence, after Zelensky said Kyiv received no warning ahead of a Russian missile attack.
Trump to Ukraine: “Fuck you.”

Maybe it’s one more reason people are yelling in public?
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But It Was Worse Under Biden!

Right? Right??
CNBC: "If you just take a step back, this is not a good print for the Federal Reserve. At a in a time when we were hoping that inflation on a monthly sequential basis was looking closer to to 2 to 2.5%, we're getting something above that ... at some point, higher inflation is gonna start eating into real incomes"
I feel like “real incomes” is hiding the ball there. I mean, since inflation is already ahead of wage growth. Best economy in the history of the world!
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More Oil Than Ever Before!

Or not: Meanwhile: And:
Trump, here we go again!

“Our new Greenland”?

Greenland is NOT yours. It never was, and it never will be.

The United States has no authority to decide whether, when, or how our oil, gas, or minerals are explored or extracted. Those decisions belong to Greenland!

Greenland belongs to the Greenlandic people. Our future is ours to decide!

Our democracy, and our right to self-determination must be respected!
A) That’s not the agreement with Greenland.

B) That agreement still has to be ratified by Greenland and Denmark. “Art of the Deal.” πŸ™„

To recap: Trump U.S. still pissing on our allies; using Elmo to fuck Ukraine and help Russia; and stretching our Navy thin with the blockade of Iran that still isn’t bringing them to their knees. While the Houthis threaten the kingdom in Saudi Arabia.

He’s making our isolationist period on the world stage look like a Golden Age of U.S. diplomacy.
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BTW

Suck it, Fox. 🦊 
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Yeah, This’ll Work

Ron is right. This is some playground level shit by Fox. Talarico didn’t have to do anything, this “scandal” collapsed under its own weight. It failed completely when the hospital issued its tweet that Talarico was never a patient, but the lame allegation failed when it claimed he was released the very day he was at the Musgraves concert in Austin. Everything after that was just nails in the coffin. ⚰️ 

What the hell is FauxNews trying to defend here? Their own gullibility? These are the people we’re supposed to be afraid of? “These are the wing’d with awe,” the “inviolable”?

Huh.πŸ€” 
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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Partners

Russian ballistic strike on Kyiv. Once again, without warning from partners. The main target is energy infrastructure, specifically TEC-4. Unfortunately, there was a hit. A residential building was also damaged; rescuers are currently extinguishing the fire. These missiles were detected by our system practically as they approached Kyiv. TEC-4 is one of Kyiv's primary energy facilities.

And this is truly unfair—when they destroy our energy infrastructure and Ukraine doesn't even receive warnings about ballistic launches. It's important that the world does not remain silent about this. And it's important that America truly sees what's happening and who is to blame for the war continuing.

Please take care of yourselves tonight and tomorrow. We are working to replenish air defense with anti-missiles.
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Guess Which Rally This Is

The only way that makes sense is Medicare for all. Without supplemental plans, part “C” plans, and part D drug plans.

Although I’m pretty sure what he means is: “Fuck you, die in the gutter. I’ll post videos of it labeled ‘Don’t mess with nature.’”
He flew all the way to Alaska to say that. Did he stop by a grocery store in Alaska? It would be a Poppy Bush moment if he did. Fuck that, he’d make Poppy look like the store manager. Has he ever been to one, anywhere? Early voting in Texas starts in 6 days. He’s in Alaska, and that “scandal” is as dead as Jacob Marley. Nobody in Texas is listening to that shit, nobody in Alaska cares, and the New York Times told everyone where Talarico was for 8 days, not 14. At his home, in Austin; with the flu. Even the people who started that shit have dropped it; but the man privy to the greatest intelligence gathering agencies in the world…is clueless. And he had to go all the way to Alaska to show his ass. Jinx!
Trump: I had a police officer from New York. And he came up to thank me, and he was a rough guy. I don’t think he cried when he was born. He didn’t cry. He was not a crier. He’s a rough guy, big, strong guy, and he was almost crying.

He was waiting in line to shake my hand, which I do with the police. And he said to me, “Sir, I want to thank you.” I said, “For what?” He said, “My wife has never respected me that much because I’ve lost a lot of money. I’ve gone into investments. I’ve always lost money. I’m not good at it. And yet now, after you’ve been here not even two years, my 401(k) is up by a number that Warren Buffett would be very proud of. Much higher than Warren Buffett’s numbers, to be honest.” And he said, “And she now views me as a financial genius. She viewed me as a loser for my whole life, and now she views me as a brilliant financial mind, and I didn’t do anything.”

And I said, “Are you going to stay with your wife?” And he said, “I’m thinking about it.” No, I said, “Stay with your wife. It’s much less expensive.”
Of all the things that never happened, yadda yadda yadda. Guess how far he had to travel to repeat that? Or to get that again? Seems to me the most newsworthy thing about these rallies are the hecklers. That’s certainly new; so it should be news. 🎢 “Good night, America! How are you?” 🎢
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Thou Shalt Not Covet Thy Neighbor’s Ass

Didn’t we just cover this?
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Vance Doesn’t Have Spiro’s Speechwriter

It’s an anti-litter campaign slogan. And Ken Paxton runs from questions in the street. Or in the press:
Ken Paxton and James Talarico are in a close race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, with Ted Brown also on the ballot. See where they stand on THC, data centers and Flock cameras. Talarico and Brown answered our questions; Paxton did not, so we used his past public statements to describe his positions.
He won’t even face Talarico on a debate stage. A) It will take several years to expand capacity at any refinery. They are very complex industrial sites.

B) That will only increase production in Texas and adjacent areas. Texas sells diesel to foreign countries because it can’t ship it to New England under U.S. law. And there aren’t any pipelines (again, would take years to build). 

C) Producing more capacity without oil to refine is pretty stupid, too. Unless you think increasing refining capacity increases the supply of crude oil. Well, Trump thinks year round DST increases the supply of sunlight in the winter. 🀷‍♂️ 
Little man in a glass house: does your search history include “couches”?
JD Vance: "You ask Ken Paxton a simple question and you will get a direct answer"

NARRATOR: Ken Paxton has still refused to answer questions about why he won't debate, why he went to England on July 4 with his mistress, why he went to Dubai for New Years with his mistress, his 15 homes, or how his net worth has increased 7,000% since he entered public office.
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These Are The People We’re Supposed To Be Afraid Of

Them? πŸ‘†Nail. Coffin. And October 1-8 is 8 days, inclusive. Talarico wasn’t missing for 2 weeks. Not even for 8 days. But when was the last time Miller was seen in sunlight? Lagniappe: I know nothing about Kacey Musgraves, but I like her style:
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Wish In One Hand…

... shit in the other. See which one fills up faster. (Does he understand the difference between “offense” and “defense”? Is Trump infecting the entire GOP?) Pretty sure that’s what people are voting for.  Speaking of red states:
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Measuring In Scaramuccis

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Well…

...somebody’s high, on their own supply.
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Renaming It “The Trump Strait”…

... because we control it so decisively.
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Monday, October 12, 2026

Sundown πŸŒ…

🀷‍♂️ πŸ«ͺ
🫠
Threatening me with a good time. Is he complaining about education? "Won” means “bought and paid for.” In his mind. And he’s earned the Nobel Peace Prize because he says he’s earned it. QED. By being the most corrupt President in American history? Winning the war on corruption that way? He gets heckled at every rally, too. “Change is coming’, but it’s sure comin’ slow.”—Neil Young 
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Stickin’ The Fork In It 🍴

And then it all went to shit, and Elmo relented: Elmo even let Al Camino back on: Nick didn’t keep up with the news: Al did, though: Mostly it was such inside baseball, it was under the stitches: I don’t recognize any of those accounts (I had to look up Sorter and Camino). I haven’t seen anything from Texas Tribune about it (good for them). It might be on MS NOW (lots of hours to fill), but honestly, when Elmo relents, well… guys, you’re done. Eh. Twitter is America’s back fence. Nobody pays that much attention to it, and the worst people there suffer from megalomania. It’s why they’re there. I mean, now that we’ve heard of him.
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“I Felt A Great Disturbance In The Force”

Evidence of absence  Is not absence of evidence.
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