This is the way a world ends....

I seldom agree with David Brooks. And I don't agree with much of his analysis even now. I don't even think the shift in the political culture in the '70's was that dramatic. Anti-war protesters didn't stop Vietnam. Marijuana was never legalized. Martin Luther King, Jr. only nudged the country toward full civil rights for all. The Reagan era was a resurgence of American conservatism, not a seismic shift. If that isn't what Mr. Brooks foresees, then I still disagree with him. But I think his language points in only one direction: political armageddon, and for the party in power:

But there is a loss of confidence in institutions. In case after case there has been a failure of administration, of sheer competence. Hence, polls show a widespread feeling the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Katrina means that the political culture, already sour and bloody-minded in many quarters, will shift. There will be a reaction. There will be more impatience for something new. There is going to be some sort of big bang as people respond to the cumulative blows of bad events and try to fundamentally change the way things are.

Reaganite conservatism was the response to the pessimism and feebleness of the 1970's. Maybe this time there will be a progressive resurgence. Maybe we are entering an age of hardheaded law and order. (Rudy Giuliani, an unlikely G.O.P. nominee a few months ago, could now win in a walk.) Maybe there will be call for McCainist patriotism and nonpartisan independence. All we can be sure of is that the political culture is about to undergo some big change.

We're not really at a tipping point as much as a bursting point. People are mad as hell, unwilling to take it anymore.