"The latest RealClearPolitics national polling average shows Trump trailing Biden by just over six points, compared with nine points a month ago ... significantly, the race is tightening in some key swing states." https://t.co/kHQaQOjdO6— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 7, 2020
The latest political polls collected by FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/fLcgcE21Vk— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 7, 2020
That one has some interesting polls, including results from two Texas polls. In one, Biden is ahead by 10 points in Texas. In another, Trump is ahead by 6 points. Where does Texas stand, then?
And in their "updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls", the changes in polls since August 1 is not statistically significant. Biden has gone from 8.3% ahead, to 7.8% ahead.
And, of course, it's not a national election; it's a state one.
Myself, I see polls as snapshots of who answered the phone. They will be read backwards to confirm they predicted the future. And since exit polls are now meaningless (early voting has started in some places, apparently), I think polling itself is becoming the "dismal science."
Especially when people won't answer the phone.
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