No, Probably Not

When do we start asking if the massive destruction to the National Weather Service and NOAA is how massive flash floods came out of nowhere in Texas. There are dozens of missing children.

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) July 4, 2025

The Texas Hill Country is an area peculiarly prone to flash floods. Dry, rocky, hilly land laced with arroyos that quickly turn into tributaries. Such floods always “come out of nowhere.”

The Guadalupe River at Hunt reached its second-highest height on record, higher than the famous 1987 flood, the city said, citing the National Weather Service.

And

Hunt, in Kerr County, saw about 6.5 inches of rain in just three hours early Friday — a 1-in-100-year event there, meaning it has about a 1% chance of happening in any given year.

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch early Thursday afternoon that highlighted Kerr County as a place at high risk of flash flooding through the overnight. A flash flood warning was issued for Kerr County as early as around 1 a.m. CT on Friday. A more dire flash flood emergency warning was then issued for Kerr County at 4:03 a.m. CT, followed by another one for Kerrville at 5:34 a.m. CT.

That’s about as much flood warning as you usually get. Note the direst warnings came early in the morning, while most people are asleep. The water in the Guadalupe rose 20 feet in 90 minutes. Camp Mystic, a summer camp, was hit especially hard.

The camp said they have no power, no water and no Wi-Fi , adding that "the highway has washed away, so we are struggling to get more help."

It’s quite likely they lost power before the worst flood warnings were issued, and couldn’t hear them. That’s the way flash floods happen in the Hill Country. And why they are “flash floods.”

This is terrible; but only the severity is unusual.