The Best I Can Figure Out

The US is now responsible for the governance of Venezuela. Toppling the regime of a smaller country is always the easy part. The hard part is what comes after. Neo-cons always expect a pro-US nirvana. It rarely works out. But I suppose the oil companies can seize some assets.

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) January 3, 2026

The U.S. did NOT topple the Venezuelan government this morning.

Breaking: During the early hours of 3 January, the U.S. conducted a large-scale strike against Venezuela. Per POTUS, President Nicolas Maduro was captured & flown out of the country. CBS reports Delta Force carried out the operation. As of 5AM ET, here’s what we know:@SA_Defensa pic.twitter.com/GdhuewgZwc

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) January 3, 2026

In a short call earlier with the NYT’s Tyler Pager, President Donald J. Trump celebrated the success of tonight’s mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. “A lot of good planning and lot of great, great troops and great people,” he said. “It was a brilliant… pic.twitter.com/M9sYB9Q8KE

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

Republican Sen. Mike Lee states that the he just spoke to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said that Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro was arrested tonight and will be brought to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States. pic.twitter.com/rDXR6KfZZ9

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez states in a call this morning that she does not know the whereabouts of President Nicolás Maduro or his wife, calling for a “proof of life” to be given by the United States. pic.twitter.com/aax4wLvCXI

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López survived tonight’s strike operation, giving his first statement since the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. pic.twitter.com/a1G6qAmg5V

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

Sources in the Venezuela opposition tell Sky News that tonight’s operation to “capture” Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, was part of a “negotiated exit” between Maduro and the United States.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

Yes, there is a criminal case againnst Maduro, in SDNY.

This is the superseding indictment that charged Maduro in March 2020. https://t.co/5LFVNZligJ pic.twitter.com/lFSwgLrxu4

— EU says Elon should not lie abt my blue check (@emptywheel) January 3, 2026

Which means, yes, several contradictory things are true at once:

To believe this is about drug smuggling, you have to ignore Trump’s pardon of the former Honduran president for drug smuggling.

To believe it’s about Maduro’s democratic legitimacy, you have to believe Trump cares even slightly about democratic legitimacy.

Alternatively: pic.twitter.com/pUBCAJhMLO

— Niall Stanage (@NiallStanage) January 3, 2026

Although I don’t see how this gives the U.S. control of Venezuela’s oil if the government of Venezuela is still intact. So, this might be an argument in court:

Pretty grotesque that an operative for a regime that JUST freed Juan Orlando Hernández pretends this is about justice. https://t.co/ZiJOtFoepx

— EU says Elon should not lie abt my blue check (@emptywheel) January 3, 2026

(Although I’m not sure how strong it is, except in the court of public opinion), I’m still not sure what the point of this exercise was. We didn’t attack the government of Venezuela. We sent in military forces to capture a government leader we claim was the head of a drug cartel. Trump just pardoned a former government leader who was convicted in a U.S.court of running a drug cartel. (Whether his capture was lawful is a more salient legal defense issue.)

Somebody make it make sense. 😵‍💫

Adding: I expect the legitimacy of the evidence is going to be challenged; which is certainly SOP in a criminal case. But that is an entirely different ballgame in the federal courts now.