Reading The Market Entrails

If you are involved with Polymarket and you live in the United States, you better hope Trump wins, cause if not, some of you will be going to jail once people figure out that it’s scam.

— YS (@NYinLA2121) October 19, 2024

I don’t know that it’s criminal fraud, but it is a scam.

First, as a predictor of the future, it’s as reliable as examining chicken entrails. According to Wikipedia, Polymarket said there was 68% likelihood Harris would make Shapiro her VP, and only a 23% chance she’d choose Walz.

The second thing about Polymarket is that bets are placed with cryptocurrency. Which makes it an unlikely reflection of Joe and Jane American, who don’t own much in the way of crypto, and aren’t likely to bet with it. And it is a “market” that can easily be manipulated by those with enough money. Like billionaires; or governments.

On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, to 53.3%, with a corresponding decline in Kamala Harris's odds, to 46.1%. Two Polymarket competitors continued to show Harris with better odds of winning, at about 51%; Polymarket also showed a slight edge for Harris throughout September. That day, the FiveThirtyEight simulation model found Harris had a 55% chance to win the election, while elections statistician Nate Silver said his model gave Harris 54.7% odds. Forbes reported on theories for the Polymarket divergence, including that one or more major wagers had been placed on Trump, possibly because Elon Musk had spoken at a Trump rally two days earlier, and had previously promoted Polymarket. On the day of the Trump spike, Musk reposted an X post that asserted "Kamala is collapsing before our eyes." However, due to Polymarket lacking a cap on individual investor amounts, large wagers by one or a few bettors may not reflect a material change in the election landscape. Silver, a Polymarket advisor, said the shift in Trump's favor was a "larger swing than is justified." Polymarket competitor Predictit had since shown Trump with better odds of winning after previously favoring Kamala Harris. 

The divergence continued into mid October 2024, showing Trump with 60% odds on October 18. The Wall Street Journal reported the market moves might be a mirage created by four bettors with $30 million in Trump wagers, though the bets were not necessarily nefarious. The four bettors behaved in similar fashion, leading at least one blockchain analyst to conclude there was "strong reason to believe they are the same entity." Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation for an influence campaign in favor of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign.

I’m wondering: influence who? Early voters in North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin? Seriously? Voters in America are gonna say: “Trump has the Big Mo, Polymarket told me so?”

🤣🤣🤣

Sure! 👍 That’ll happen!

As for any criminal exposure, I just don’t think so:

As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore, as domestic operations would be regulated by the CFTC.