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Reporter: Did you speak with the oil companies before the operation? Did you tip them off?

Trump: Before and after. They want to go in and they’re going to do a great job. pic.twitter.com/zxOG648Ww0

— Acyn (@Acyn) January 5, 2026

Trump is an unreliable narrator:

Trump told reporters on Sunday that he had spoken to U.S. oil companies “before and after” the military operation that seized Maduro and brought him to New York, where the former Venezuelan leader made his first court appearance on Monday.

“And they want to go in, and they’re going to do a great job for the people of Venezuela, and they’re going to represent us well,” Trump continued.

Industry executives on Monday told Reuters no such outreach had occurred to oil majors Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron, all of which have experience working in Venezuela’s oil fields.

Bringing Venezuela’s oil production — now around 1 million barrels a day — back to its glory-days’ height of 3 million barrels a day would require at least $183 billion and more than a decade of effort, industry analyst firm Rystad Energy said Monday. While the Venezuelan government might supply some of that money, international companies would need to spend $35 billion in the next few years to reach that goal. 

Hold on to those numbers. This is business; business is a numbers game.

People in the oil industry have said a major concern is that Venezuela is not stable enough to guarantee the safety of any workers and equipment they might send there. Companies are asking that the U.S. government contract directly with them before they commit to entering the country.

“We need some boots-on-the-ground security and some financial security. That’s on top of the list,” said a second industry executive familiar with the talks who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

And who's on first?

Trump’s decision to allow Maduro’s second-in-command, acting President Delcy Rodríguez, and other members of the regime to remain in charge of the country’s government has also made industry executives wary of taking on the job, this person added. Rodríguez and her family had been part of the Venezuelan government under Hugo Chávez in the mid-2000s when the regime seized the assets of foreign oil companies. Colombia, Canada, the EU and the United States have levied sanctions against her after accusing her of undermining the Venezuelan elections.

“Who’s running the game here?” the second industry executive said. “If she’s going to be in charge — plus the guys who have been there all along — what guarantee can you give us that stuff is going to change? Those three issues — physical, financial and political security — have to be settled before anyone goes in.”

What's a good euphemism for "The President doesn’t know his ass from a hole in the ground”?

Longtime Republican foreign policy hand Elliott Abrams, who served as Trump’s special envoy to Venezuela during his first term, said the president is “exaggerating” the likelihood that companies will return to the country, given the risk and capital required.

“The president seems to suggest that he will make the decision, but that is not right — the boards of these companies will make the decisions,” said Abrams, who is now senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This is where I interrupt to point out Trump has never known a Board of Directors in his companies. The concept is as foreign to him as calculus or elementary analysis. It’s also part of the reason why he admires dictators.

“I expect that you’ll see all of them now say, ‘This is fantastic, it’s a great opportunity, and we have a team ready to go to Venezuela,’ but that’s politics,” he added. “That doesn’t mean they’re going to invest.”

Again: ignore what Trump says. And remember corporations play the same game. Watch the donut, not the hole. Or, to steal a comment rather than end on a cliche:

One would think by now people would be catching on to the fact Trump has no actual business sense, only a formidable will to run scams.

Lagniappe:

We all watch Landman and know this is like 1 week of output from the Permian Basin alone. Good luck, hope nobody else gets killed stealing it. https://t.co/Bma3rh6DsS

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) January 7, 2026

There isn’t any “high quality” oil in Venezuela. It’s little better than the tar sands of Canada. Permian Basin oil is “sweet light.” Venezuela oil is “heavy sour.” It takes a lot more refining to make it worth anything. Such oil sells at a much lower price than sweet light.  And Venezuela is currently exporting about 500,000 bbl a day. What time frame for production is Trump talking about? Annualize that number, you get 180 billion bbl a year. Don’t regard that as accurate. But Trump is pulling numbers out of his ass, too. Venezuela doesn’t have the ability to increase production, but Trump wants a win.

He’s an unreliable narrator. Which is a euphemism for: “The President doesn’t know his ass from a hole in the ground. Or the truth, if it walked up and bit him.”