Who Ya Gonna Blame?

“The worst view of current economic conditions since 1951… 61% blame Trump… 79% of independents have a negative view of Trump’s economic policies… if these numbers hold Republicans can wave adios to the house, and maybe the senate…” pic.twitter.com/xa504ZPIW2

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) November 10, 2025

Kinda wondering how much those numbers change because the shutdown ended. Especially if:

I feel like this needs to be said, bc some big accounts are missing it.

The people feeling the pain of shutdown:

Govt workers furloughed or working for free (Lots in VA)
Flights (note fight over private v. commercial @katieporteroc.bsky.social won)
40M losing SNAP

v

20M on ACA subsidies

You can say those 20M are fucked, and they are. Which is precisely where they were after Big Ugly passed.

But please don't forget that 40M people were going to go hungry.

Worse comes to worse govt shuts down on Jan30 and SNAP can't be used as hostages.

Which leads me to this very interesting explainer:

Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.

1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.

Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.

2) If it weren't these eight, others would have been found to get the Senate to exactly 60. This is pursuant to a strategy.

Their goal was to partner with more 'reasonable' Senate Republicans to pass full year CRs that reflected bipartisan priorities.

3. Republicans were playing good cop, bad cop, crazy cop.

Good cop: Senate Republicans Bad cop: House Republicans (Johnson) Crazy cop: Russ Vought + Trump

Vought's plan was always to use impoundment/rescissions/starving people + firing feds to force Dems to surrender on the power of the purse.

We know this because he told us.

The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.

The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.

4) Senate Dems did get something out of the negotiations w/r/t power of the purse. They protected the legislative branch, notably GAO. But it's something they already had that was under threat, not something they won. Same is true with the RIFs. Same is true with SNAP.

5) Dems showed (a) it's possible to get something out of "shutting down the government" despite what the pundits said, and (b) that they could hold together for 40 days. It's not a policy win, but it changes expectations for what they can do in the future, strengthening their negotiating position.

6) When will that matter? In January, when the short term CR runs out. Will Dems vote to keep the government running if other full-year CR bills aren't enacted? That's a big question. Another one: what do they negotiate inside the full year bills?

Is it all over? I don’t think the fat lady’s even warming up in the wings.