Sunday, May 24, 2026

This Is Really Just An Excuse To Pile On

According to Axios, citing U.S. officials familiar with the ongoing negotiations, the peace agreement that Iran and the United States are close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing future nuclear ambitions of Iran.

Both sides would sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual agreement from the two countries. During the 60-day period, the Strait of Hormuz would be open with no tolls and Iran would agree to clear the mines it deployed in the strait to let ships pass freely. In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers, allowing the sale of oil and other energy products by Iran.
That’s if Iran accepts these terms. Axios is notoriously a mouthpiece for the Administration. Even this utter capitulation may not be enough.
If President Trump agrees to a 60-day ceasefire extension based on vague Iranian promises to “discuss” nuclear issues, it’s game over. That pushes the crisis into late July or early August, when major military operations become far less likely ahead of the midterms.

Once the military leverage disappears, meaningful nuclear concessions disappear with it. Ballistic missile restrictions will be nonexistent. Iran will get billions in sanctions relief—while repeatedly using Hormuz as a tool of blackmail.

Tehran will have won at the negotiating table what it lost on the battlefield.
"Major military operations” died the moment Trump declared a ceasefire. There was never a chance of their resurrection. Trump was never more competent or capable than this. Face it.

It’s not even clear Tehran lost anything on the battlefield.
To assess the results of the war, the analysis is actually quite simple:

A. Iran before the war:

1. Willing to engage in nuclear negotiations 2. Prepared to consider significant concessions on the nuclear issue 3. The Strait of Hormuz remained open and stable

B. Iran after the war (so far):

1. Demanding recognition of its sovereign role over the Strait of Hormuz 2. Refusing to discuss the nuclear issue until it receives guarantees on ending the war and meaningful economic relief

The war produced a number of tactical achievements. But strategically, it did not moderate Iran’s position but actually it hardened it.

Instead of moving Tehran closer to compromise on the nuclear file, the conflict shifted Iranian priorities toward security guarantees, economic stabilization, and leverage in the Gulf. The nuclear issue, once central, has now become conditional on broader political and economic arrangements.

That is the core strategic problem: military pressure may have weakened parts of Iran’s infrastructure, but it also hardened the regime willingness to negotiate under pressure. And, they are not ready to show more compromises...
"Tactical achievements”? It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Trump has managed to see Iran win both.
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