Thursday, June 25, 2026

SNAFU

U.S. President Donald J. Trump has said that the Iranians have communicated to the U.S. that they will not charge tolls or fees for safe commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes following the Omani announcement that the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) current transit framework, known as the Traffic Separation Scheme, is no longer viable. Per the Omani release, which we will cover in more detail in coming posts, they will work with the IMO to guide ships through the strait for no fees using an amended route framework.
Iran’s IRGC-N has rejected the Omani-International Maritime Organization transit framework announced earlier. Per the release, in what is seemingly a veiled threat to resume the targeting of commercial shipping and/or limit mine clearance efforts, the IRGC-N said “The proposed route is unacceptable and poses serious safety risks.”
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be increasing despite Iranian announcements attempting to regulate passage.

MarineTraffic data shows at least 50 vessels transited the strait over the past 24 hours, with 39 utilizing the U.S.-recommended traffic separation scheme through Omani waters.

The actual number is likely higher, as some vessels continue to transit with their AIS transponders switched off and are not publicly visible.

For comparison, 130+ vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on an average day before the conflict.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has issued an attack advisory after receiving a report that a vessel was struck on its starboard (right) side by an unidentified projectile 7.5NM off Oman, causing damage to the bridge.

No casualties or pollution have been reported.

The incident comes hours after Iran warned that vessels transiting the region without its authorization could face "consequences."
This is fine:
According to the Wall Street Journal reporting, Iranian officials are boasting to Middle Eastern neighbors that a lucrative new revenue stream is imminent. The Islamic Republic estimated that charging for "security, safety, and environmental services" in the strait could generate $40 billion annually for "participating states."

The scheme would represent a dramatic reversal of pre-war conditions. Iran has positioned itself to control and monetize the "global shipping chokepoint" it effectively seized when the war began, causing worldwide pain.

To gain regional buy-in, Tehran pitched the toll arrangement throughout the Middle East and to Beijing, proposing that Persian Gulf neighbors share in the revenue, with the Journal noting the model "mirrors" Turkey's system in the Dardanelles, where ships pay a tax known as the gold franc for passage.

"Everyone needs to know that management of the strait will never return to the way it was before," declared Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, during a visit to Oman on Tuesday to discuss the arrangements, the Journal reported.
And so much better than the JCPOA Obama negotiated with several nations! Who aren’t talking to us anymore….
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