Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Let's Review


Remember those days?  Yeah, five days ago.  Trump was staunch on destroying the USPS because it was losing money and it was rigged and mail-in ballots were the spawn of Satan and because mail sucked because Amazon.  Remember?  He was very clear about it:
Trump might as well have said: "Fuck USPS!"

He tried to argue that mail-in ballots were bad, but absentee ballots (also mailed in) were good, to target his ire not at the USPS but at voting (yeah, that was better!):
And then he claimed was was trying to "save" the Post Office:
And when that wasn't clear enough:
Which was a pretty obvious ploy because Senators and Representatives were echoing the outrage of their constituents (you know, the "sovereigns" in our system of government):
And now he's repeating in 2020 what he said in 2016, which has everyone terrified (!) he will create the "worst-case scenario":

The worst-case scenario is far more nightmarish: an unhinged leader with authoritarian instincts may decide to reject the peaceful transition of power, one of the pillars of our political system.
How does Trump do this, though?  How does he "reject the peaceful transition of power" and follow his "authoritarian instincts"?  Call out the National Guard to surround the White House?  Rely on the military to create a coup and place him in power?  Challenge the vote in every state in the Union?
We have federal laws about the election of the President, and a Constitution that sets deadlines for what has to happen when, and the major one is that the states have to report their slates of electors by a date certain, or they pretty much miss their chance to be considered.  No state is going to do that; no governor is that loyal to Trump, nor is any state legislature.  And if the slates are incomplete or in any way irregular, it would throw the election into the House.  The analysis linked to that tweet explains how Pelosi could play "hardball" with the 12th Amendment (and who doubts she would?), and I don't think even the Supremes would step in to challenge (Art I gives each house of Congress power to make its own rules.  That power is not reviewable by Art. III courts; never has been, never will be.)

I've said it before, I'll say it repeatedly:  the POTUS is not elected by the people.  He/she is elected by the electoral college.  Challenging the vote in multiple states won't overturn election results, and it won't postpone the Constitutional deadline (say what you want against Bush v. Gore, and I could say plenty; but the Court recognized that deadline as looming when it ruled).

Trump may have "authoritarian instincts," but his instincts also lead him to say "suburban housewives" love being called that, and covid-19 is "going away," and everybody agrees he got a bum rap in his first Administration so maybe he gets a "do-over."  He's not Adolf Hitler held up by Goering and Himmler and the rest, he's an incompetent boob, a toddler with a shotgun.  He can blow a lot of holes in things but his shotgun runs out of ammunition on January 20, 2021.  He can "reject the peaceful transition of power" all he wants, but if he imagines the bikers and the boaters are going to physically defend him, and prevent him from being turned out of office, he's as big a fool as the people who fear he has some magical power no other President has ever had.

As of January 20, 2021, he's just another private citizen.  His access to the White House will be that of just another visitor on a public tour.  He may insist the election was rigged and he was robbed.  Nobody is going to be paying attention, though.

And after I wrote all that, this happened:

Turns out not everything that works in D.C. works in front of TV cameras:

DeJoy caved in less than two weeks, IOW.  so much for the fearsome authoritarianism of Trump.

Yup.  No reason to relax now.  He's shown he'll cave.  Now make him back all the way up.

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