In Better Labor Day News

Biden responds to heckler: Let him go. Everyone is entitled to be an idiot pic.twitter.com/fFbeiHcMAt

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 5, 2022

Five Thirty Eight:*

But more than the impact of any one legislative action, it is likely the steady stream of news that has helped Biden the most. The administration is finally ticking items off a long to-do list, helping to counter the narrative that the White House wasn’t getting much done. 

That said, both Morning Consult and Gallup found that Biden’s approval went up not just with Democrats but also with independents. In the Gallup poll, Biden’s approval jumped 9 points with independents since July.

This is likely because there is more at play than legislative victories. Namely, inflation seems to be cooling, which could hint at a more basic reason for why Biden’s disapproval has declined: Gas prices have steadily tumbled since hitting their peak in June. On top of that, the job market remains strong. Americans’ worry about the economy also seems to be easing some. The Quinnipiac poll found that Americans’ approval of Biden’s handling of the economy had changed the most of any issue surveyed, jumping to 37 percent from 28 percent in July. 

It’s possible, too, that the overall political environment is just better than expected for Democrats. Since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in June, Democrats have outperformed expectations in special elections. They’ve also improved their standing in the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they’d support in the race for Congress, signaling that 2022 could be an unusual midterm election. (Historically, the president’s party usually struggles in the midterms.) In some ways, then, Biden’s approval rating is a lagging indicator of the change in fortune Democrats were already experiencing.

In the meantime, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news after the FBI searched his home in Florida for classified information he kept there in violation of the Presidential Records Act, which requires presidents to turn over any written materials related to their official duties. Information continues to pour out about the sensitive documents found there. It’s unclear how much this episode will help or hurt Trump, but polls do show that most Americans are aware of this news and think it’s a problem. During his 2020 campaign, Biden promised a return to normalcy after Trump’s tumultuous tenure, so it’s not unreasonable to think that the news from Mar-a-Lago might remind some voters why they chose Biden in the first place. 

But, of course, the midterms are still two months away, and Biden still has two more years in his first term. Given the volatility of the past month in his approval rating, there’s still plenty of time for it to go down once more. Then again, maybe Biden is, at long last, on the rebound.

The true "conservatives" are political pundits and prognosticators, creatures mired in the recent history they actually know (i.e., experienced).  The past 30 years have seen an aberration of mid-term elections going against the party in the White House.  But the preponderence of American history runs the other way.  So where is the true "weight of history" in the upcoming midterms?  If the Democrats prevail and keep both Houses of Congress, is that a repudiation of history?  Or a return to normal history?

And as for the election being in "two months," when, O when, are the political "experts" going to finally realize that early voting means voting begins in four to six weeks, not 8 months.   And yes, a lot can happen in even six weeks, but the glidepath is pretty well set by falling inflation, falling gas prices, rising employment and Biden's legislative record ("what have you done for me lately?").  Meanwhile the GOP doesn't know whether to shit or go blind.  Trump's appearance for Mastriano had the latter talking about 9/11 (!) and still insisting 2020 was rigged (does he agree Trump should get a do over?).  All Trump talks about is grievance (his), and there are clear signs that show is closing on the road.  Besides, the elephant in the room is Dobbs, and how pissed people are at losing a constitutional right, not to mention how much it endangers the healthcare of average women who don't seek an abortion for convenience, but rather to save their lives or no leave them seriously wounded, perhaps unable to bear children again.

These are not small issues.  But they aren't "historical," in that they haven't been happening over and over again for, well, 30 years.  Often enough for the average analyst to think them the norm, rather than the anomaly.  Trump shattered the norms; the Supreme Court followed suit.  Could it be the piper will finally demand payment from everyone who danced to his tune?  Norms being shattered, after all, inevitably have consequences; and consequences are usually, especially in electoral politics, visited upon the parties responsible. I mean, Trump keeps reminding people why they voted him out of office in the first place.  His followers think they got cheated because they didn't get their way.  Nothing in the system gives a wet snap for their delicate fee-fees, and the people most loudly championing Trump's nonsense are failing in their campaigns.

Well, like the President said:  everyone is entitled to be an idiot.  They just aren't entitled to get their own way, or win elections, or be in charge of the country.

*The best part of that article is the title question:  "What's Driving Biden's Approval Ratings Up?"  It's a question that, typically, is never answered.  With no answer, they can't be held to any conclusions anytime in the future, and so can stay in the prognostication game.  The Romans supposedly used chicken entrails.  We look down on them because we use "scientific methods."  Which can never be proven right, nor wrong.  If they are wrong, pundits and pollsters insist polls are always a matter of interpretation, not prognostication.  If they are right, no need to explain anything.  It's science!

Or divination.  The difference is one of form, not substance.