The Land Where Dreams Come True...Is Not Here

One example is young/young Black/young Latino. I think there's a big discrepancy between general polling, EVEN the overpolls, and focused polls. If the latter are right, the polls will be wildly off.

Another is no real concern abt adjusting post-Dobbs.

— emptywheel (blue dog democrat) (@emptywheel) October 25, 2024

The last time Nate Silver got it right was 2012. And he was considered a wunderkind for that. Which tells you how accurate the polls had been before that.

Polling is a racket. It's no more accurate than reading tea leaves or poking through chicken entrails.  We are told it is accurate just like we are told blacks or Latinos or college educated black transsexuals living alone with cats voted for Candidate Y "because."  When no one has the foggiest idea why, or an even be sure they've accurately identified the group they say voted a certain way. But polls give us an excuse for a narrative; and we love a good narrative.

From now to Election Day we will be told turnout numbers categorizing voters based on party registration (in the states where voters register by party.  Texas is not one.  Then again, no one expects any surprises out of Texas. Not even your humble host.  I've learned my lesson from years of disappointment.) are predicting how the POTUS candidates are doing.  As I say, that means independents are voting third party, right?

Who da fuck knows?

Polls are wildly off every election.  It's why Dems have been "overperforming" since 2018, and the "red wave" never materialized.  Polls fit narratives; they don't predict the future.  And as astute a reader of the zeitgeist as emptywheel should see that reliance on polls is the baseline MAGA narrative:  how can Trump lose if the polls say he was gonna win?  "RIGGED!"

It's a lot more date-mulish to report on polls as the vox dei or even vox populi, than quoting Trump's speeches and Truth Social posts in order to critique them.  Much closer to the roots of our political consernation today, too.

We're stuck.  We won't get rid of polls.  But it'd be much better if we did.

I can dream, can't I?