Wednesday, April 08, 2026

“Spinning Wheel Got To Go ‘Round”

I am thankful that we have a ceasefire. It happened much faster than I expected and it was the right move. But let’s be clear that this war ends (if the ceasefire holds) as a total strategic disaster. The scorecard

Nukes: Iran still has the HEU

Proxies: no change or impact

Missile and drones : Iran demonstrated its arsenal is sustainable and survivable under massive US and Israeli pressure.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s leverage to use it as a bargaining chip has dramatically increased.

Regime: killed Khameini but his son is still in place and unless they collapse in the aftermath will probably be just as strong or stronger then when this started.

US allies: totally screwed in the Gulf and horribly strained relations in Europe.

Global economy: major damage.

Israel: will be even more globally isolated after this and no more secure.

Region: as unstable as ever requiring a greater US commitment.

US capacity to be prepared for major contingencies in the IndoPacific set back for years.

But at least we took out their navy and destroyed their useless Air Force 🤷‍♂️. An epic strategic disaster.

1 comment:

  1. If Chip Roy is trying out for stupidest member of the House he's got some stiff competition. But he's a definite contender.

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