State Of The State

Abbott has staked an unwavering, absolute and extreme stance prohibiting schools, cities, counties and businesses from requiring masks or vaccinations. His henchmen at the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission have been doing the dirty work.https://t.co/PEH8SV07Dq

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

This thread is worth reposting in full, so bear with me as we go from context to current events:

For nearly three decades, statewide elections in Texas have been decided in Republican primaries, creating a run to the right that so far has known no end. See: Patrick, Dan and Paxton, Ken.

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

One has to remember once in a while that Abbott is still to the "left" of Paxton and Patrick. Patrick is determinted to be the most racist man in Texas politics. Paxton was gleefully presenting himself as Abbott's enforcer. Recent cases may have blunted his zeal, however.

He perceives that the biggest threats to his re-election are from the right, where Allen West and Don Huffines are outflanking the governor with ever more extremist positions that might appeal to a shrinking and increasingly hardcore GOP primary base.https://t.co/SxK80NJB7g

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

That has backfired. Unvaccinated Texans are flooding the ICU’s — and one can safely assume that many of them would be GOP voters. Killing off your constituency is never good politics. https://t.co/W7f3qJ7i2O

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

Abbott is not just killing off his voters, he's enraging his voters who have kids in school and are scared shitless that covid is coming for them.  Shit has, this week, hit the fan; and not all school districts in Texas have even started classes yet (Houston ISD, the largest single ISD in the state, starts next week.).

Texas has been a state of confusion, fear and ugliness this first week of school, as many schools required masks in defiance of the governor. https://t.co/AKAs60XCIR

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

That calculus changed when school officials in more rural, more-GOP-leaning areas also began to do the right thing to protect their kids. Suddenly, a laissez faire approach to COVID was no longer good GOP primary politics. The ground began to shift.https://t.co/xGLTr4FlMo

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

The rural counties of Texas were pretty much spared when Covid alpha was the only game in town. Delta has changed all the rules, and even the rural areas are now keenly aware of that. Especially since delta is going after the kids because so many adults are vaccinated.

And the Texas Education Agency revised its guidance to schools to say that it would not enforce Abbott’s orders on masks while the courts are still settling the matter. https://t.co/uW5p63HhO1

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

I stand by my analysis that SCOTEX did a bit more than Professor Vladek thinks it did; politically, if not entirely judicially (yes, I'm hedging my bets a bit).

Here’s wishing the governor a speedy recovery. And here’s wishing a return to common sense and good governance in Texas. We could use your thoughts and prayers.

— John Bridges (@JohnBridges) August 20, 2021

As Politico noted, Abbott and Paxton have not filed the multitude of lawsuits they threatened to.  That could still happen, but is Abbott drawing back from the fire, or not?  I think it's too soon to declare victory, and too soon to presume Abbott has finally seen he needs to declare victory himself and withdraw from the battlefield.  But the ice is cracking:  TEA has no desire to be in the middle of this fight; the Texas 4th Court of Appeals has upheld a "temporary order" barring Abbott's mask mandate against schools in Bexar County (San Antonio, one of the larger cities in Texas).  I can't tell if this is a TRO or an injunction that was upheld; the distinction is important.  I suspect it is an injunction, as a TRO can be issued ex parte, while an injunction can only issue after an evidentiary hearing.  SCOTEX blocked a TRO in Dallas County on purely procedural grounds; the 4th Circuit allowing an injunction could mean Paxton couldn't present evidence sufficient to overcome the legtimiate public health issues.

That would be a major break.  So far Professor Vladek hasn't weighed in on that ruling; he would be my source for more complete information on why the court ruled as it did.  But I can't see the 4th Circuit defying the rule of the Supreme Court on Abbott's authority if the Bexar County case only presented another TRO appeal.

Curiouser and curiouser.  I don't think matters are improving for Abbott legally or politically.  It will be interesting to see if Paxton decides to sue more counties and ISD's (some counties have sued the state, so there are plenty of lawsuits out there right now).  He bragged earlier that he'd won every case he took to court for Abbott's earlier mask directives (he didn't).  I wonder how he feels now.

The telling question will be:  does the statutory power of the governor in an "emergency" override the public health interests of the state?  Do we, in other words, give the Governor the power to make things worse just because that's how the statute is making things work out?

It's not a "constitutional crisis;" but it's near enough for dammit.