Context Is All

Very relevant. I’ve seen a number of “uncommitted” supporters saying they expect ~15k and that that will be a big win. https://t.co/9gGGXZT7nE

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 27, 2024

Nothing against “uncommitted” as a vote, but arguably that’s the category of the majority of registered voters who never bother to vote. That said, JMM says  the proponents of “uncommitted” think ~15K is a “big win.” I heard Michael Moore make the same argument in the same expectation, trying to warn Biden that he ignores this sentiment in MI at his peril.

But the percentage of “uncommitted” in Dem primaries in Michigan has been dropping since 2012, and the 19K in 2020 (slightly down from 21K in 2016, but 21K was 11% of the vote that year), was only 1% of the vote.

In what universe is 1% a “big win”? A Trumpian sarcastic one? 🤷🏻‍♂️