1. A quick #thread on where things stand with former President Trump's application to #SCOTUS to keep the January 6 prosecution on hold.
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024
First, we expect whatever the Court does to be a "miscellaneous order." Such an order can theoretically come at any time and without warning.
3. My best guess is that one of two things has happened:
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024
Possibility 1 is that the Court has voted to *deny* the stay, and some number of justices are writing separate opinions respecting that result (concurrences/ "statements"/dissents).
Two weeks is *not* that long for that.
5. If, instead, the Court was inclined to grant the stay and also expedite its consideration of the merits, hold argument, etc., there's *no* reason for this delay; that order could and should have come pretty quickly (and I wouldn't expect any separate writings respecting it).
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024
7. In other words, although there are several explanations for why it's taking the Court this long, the most likely ones are all *bad* for Trump. None of this is a guarantee, of course; one of the *problems* with the shadow docket is how much we're left to guess. But that's mine.
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) February 23, 2024
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