Monday, March 02, 2020

Because Blogger Comments and I are No Longer on Speaking Terms


Wow, looks like a totally different race with those two dropping out. Who knows what it will look like by the end of the week. I'm not thrilled with the idea of Biden being the candidate but I like it better than it being Bernie. We'll see.
Suddenly Bernie doesn't look so inevitable, does he?  (I refer to the national punditry analysis that, after three small states and a handful of delegates in play, it was Bernie's race to lose.)  I would prefer his politics (or Senator Professor Warren's), but I'm of a very practical turn of mind (voting in Texas almost all my life does that to a liberal).  And I'm curious as to what happens going forward:  Bernie has never drawn more than 25% or so of the vote (one analysis pointed out he and Warren combined were only getting 27% of the vote), and I don't expect that to improve now (why would it?  Klobuchar voters are going to Bernie?).  Saw some analyses when Buttigieg pulled out that now some of those would go to Bernie (about 20%, but that's 20% of what, 10%?  Less?).  Anyway, those votes will change after Tuesday, at least in Texas (no idea what early voting happens in California, or the other 12 states on the ballot tomorrow).  Buttigieg and Klobuchar will have a few delegates to throw at Biden (presumably) at the convention.  Votes that would have gone to them will either:  a) go to Biden; b) go to Warren; c) go to Bernie; or d) stay home.

I think the latter the least likely; that's a more likely scenario for Bernie Bros. than for Democratic primary voters.  They are turning out in record numbers to expel Trump; staying home again will just repeat 2016, so that's not an option (and if Trump can't carry Texas?  Party's over, bay-bee).  How many go to Bernie?  Even 20% of the  75% that hasn't gone for him so far is not enough to win the nomination.  If the bulk goes to Biden by default (again, Warren just isn't drawing that many votes, either), it's Biden in a walk.

"As long as it's not Bernie", is my motto now.  Like I say, I'm practical.  Not wild about Biden, but I can see him bring along a Democratic House and possibly a Democratic Senate, especially if he makes a good VP pick.  I would recommend Beto, to carry Texas.  But that's just me.  Bernie?  He would be the shot in the arm the GOP needs to win everything else.

IMHO, anyway.

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