When does this...2/ FWIW, I doubt Biden is at 53% & leading by 11. Something more like 48-42 seems more plausible. But what I thing is happening—& I’ve talked to several pollsters & data people about this, it’s a mix mostly of what they’ve said—is public pollsters are worried…
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 19, 2023
...go from...4/…missing Trump voters & it results in what they think is a balanced sample. Then, I think, to get those more conservative young, Black, Latino, & Asian voters,they’re probably getting a lot of young/non-white people who didn’t vote in 2020. If that’s what’s going on…
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 19, 2023
..."scientific" to...6/…the composition of the electorate will be the same in 2024 as 2020, even if that’s not what their results are showing. It’s plausible that Dems have a drop-off; in fact, I think that’s Biden’s biggest challenge, to hold turnout among young & non-white voters…
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 19, 2023
...reading...8/…what’s going on, but I’m quite confident non-2020 voters (who will be younger than the electorate overall) are not voting for Trump by over a 20 point margin. Trump won’t get 15-20% of black voters. Young voters upset w Biden over Gaza or student loans aren’t going to…
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 19, 2023
...chicken entrails?10/…be fairly accurate, but if they are, it’s not bc of the public pollsters’ methodology, it’s in spite of it.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 19, 2023
Remember, almost none of these polls make sense as the sum of the parts. That may be some combination of a lot of uncertainty—a lot of voters aren’t yet…
No comments:
Post a Comment