Will Stancil’s Other Moment; Or, While We’re Berating Polls

Democrats’ dedication to bland kitchen-table drudgery and always taking the high road and not sweating the news cycle are coming back to ruin us as the accumulated effect of three years of totally unchallenged anti-Biden narratives finally land https://t.co/k8Jmksyv1m

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) December 18, 2023

Biden’s not had a single major scandal and his policy record is long and successful. He’s presiding over the strongest economy in decades. None of it matters because the universal media signal across all bands is “he’s old and useless and you should hate him”

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) December 18, 2023

A) Campaigns matter. Haven’t I said that before? And conditions now won’t be conditions next fall. 

B)

NATIONAL POLL: @POTUS Biden job rating drops to all time low since taking office.

34% approve
61% disapprovehttps://t.co/vx5I5jyeRR pic.twitter.com/eoOkvN4lfQ

— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) December 18, 2023

Approval ratings don’t mean jackshit. Because Biden won’t be running against Biden, or against A Candidate To Be Named Later. 

Biden approval down 14 points since July among Democrats and Independents—his own voters. Could rebound. He appears to be in a standoff with people who don’t want him to run for reelection, but will likely return the fold once they accept he is the only alternative to Trump. https://t.co/A48RbvFGI4

— Bill Scher (@billscher) December 18, 2023

Or:

Pretty remarkable that the same poll showing Joe Biden with a 34% approval rating has him leading Donald Trump. So instead of fixating on Biden's electability, ask yourself why the GOP would nominate the one guy who looks to lose to a Democrat with a 34% approval rating? https://t.co/VmdZ22Fmnh

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 19, 2023

And, as I was saying, November 2024 is a long way off; and nobody lives there yet.

Also, this: A lot of voters don't honestly believe the November 2024 matchup will be between Trump and Biden. That leads to a lot of bizarre poll responses. https://t.co/1DUTgQvSmq

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 19, 2023

And a few more points:

Which part of it? A lot of polls seems to show low approval ratings but basically even with Trump. A candidate running for re-election with very low approval ratings would normally be far behind his main rival...unless his main rival was really awful.

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 19, 2023

The EV/PV divide is almost certainly much smaller now than in 2016 or 2020 - and may even be gone. Why? Florida. Lots of people left purple states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and moved to Florida, which will boost the GOP PV total but do nothing to boost the EV count.

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 19, 2023

I don't think Dems want their nominee to have a 34% approval rating. Then again, I don't think most of the polls today are worth a damn. E.g. that Fox News poll showing Biden winning among 65+s by 10 points but losing under-45s. I mean, no.

— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) December 19, 2023

Finally, just to emphasize by repetition:

And this is while voters still haven’t accepted they are getting a 2020 rematch. Going to be interesting to see how things shift when they reach the acceptance stage.

— Bob Sampson (@bobsalpha1) December 19, 2023

Everybody wants the future to be what they want it to be, but reality stubbornly refuses to be that way. Nobody lives in the future, but we all like to think we can.

We can’t. Relax. The future will be what it will be. And there are enough polls out there to give you any future you want.

Polls don’t mean shit. 💩