I tried to read this last night, but I had to register (Nope! Not gonna do it.). Now I have it in tweets. Skip the handwringing and get to the nub.NEW: Could a defeated Donald Trump subvert the 2024 election?
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
The answer: Yes, BUT the path is far narrower, even more extreme and would require an enormous amount of help from GOP power brokers — who first need to win their own elections.
Our deep dive: https://t.co/tC6sNawEEe pic.twitter.com/x6FHkW1oZ4
The real precondition(s) is/are:But Trump isn’t president. He doesn’t have the military or DOJ to wield to this end. And the updated Electoral Count Act has, on paper, foreclosed most routes to subversion. Thats why he would need congressional Rs to embrace fringe legal theories to sidestep the laws.… pic.twitter.com/SkP9oqyznp
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
What Johnson thinks doesn’t mean jackshit. For one thing, he may not be Speaker in 2025. For a second thing, under the ECRA, Johnson can ignore it all he wants, it doesn’t matter. 1/5 of BOTH the House and Senate have to object to a slate in order to trigger a vote by each house separately, and then if the objection is upheld by each chamber, they must vote jointly to uphold it. Failure to achieve a majority at any step defeats the objection.One thing we found: State election officials don’t think rogue county/state boards will be able to prevent the election from being certified. They’re supremely confident courts would compel them to act. But their resistance serves another purpose for Trump https://t.co/tC6sNawEEe
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
Note the analysis presumes nobody else wants to go to jail. In 2021 participants could convince themselves Trump would pardon them when they prevailed, or that there were so many of them they’d be lost in the crowd.Don’t expect fake electors to meet. There’s no purpose. They don’t want criminal charges and Kamala Harris will be presiding and obviously not consider bogus slates. The route to watch is rogue state legislatures endorsing alternate slates. https://t.co/tC6sNawEEe pic.twitter.com/sERn3fpxNf
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
And here the ECRA is backed by the 12th Amendment. If state legislatures try to go rogue, Congress can simply reject their slates and lower the electoral threshold. Again, are the Supremes going to step in months after the fact and overturn the election? As if. They are still burned by Bush v Gore, and that didn’t overturn a settled outcome, that just enforced the ECA. Roberts is already upset by the reaction to Trump v U.S. He’s not about to vote to give Trump the election long after the fact, and completely upend the legitimacy of Articles I and II.At bottom, an attempt by Trump to subvert his defeat would require a level of luck, complicity and willingness to reject federal law that he didn’t get four years ago. https://t.co/tC6sNawEEe
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
We return to states blocking matters and missing deadlines. The scenario of Bush v Gore, IOW. Hated that decision may be, but it set as the ground rule the ECA. The ECRA didn’t change any deadlines, just how objections are made (again, complaints about the reform rendering the statute unconstitutional are weak. And how do you present objections to the Court, without asking the Court to overturn a Presidential election?). Bush v Gore means any state that doesn’t meet the federal deadline loses their electoral votes (this is why the Court suspended the Florida recount). Which state legislatures really want to do that? (The courts won’t let state agencies do it.)2024 is not 2020. Trump being out of power changes the equation. But the transfer of power if he loses is still likely to be perilous — particularly if, as expected, he declares victory on Election Day.
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 20, 2024
w/ @HeidiReports @johnnysaks130 @lisakashinsky https://t.co/tC6sNawEEe pic.twitter.com/nUFx4FQB3e
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