Saturday, February 28, 2026

O Sweet Grim Fucking Death ☠️

That last post was getting too damned long. War is good for the arms manufacturers. Besides, we got ‘em! Might as well use ‘em! Sorry, you’re not taking account of American exceptionalism. Please hang up and call back later. By killing everyone who doesn’t agree with you? MAGA in a nutshell. Trump can’t be expected to miss his fundraiser tonight for a little thing like a war! Right?
The Assassination of #Khamenei – Initial Implications

A. A Foundational Event for the Regime For more than three decades, Khamenei shaped the ideological, institutional, and strategic character of the Islamic Republic. His death is not merely a leadership transition — it is a foundational event that could shake the entire structure of the regime.

B. The Succession Mechanism – Theory vs. Reality
According to the constitution, the Assembly of Experts is responsible for convening and appointing a new Supreme Leader. In practice, this has happened only once (1989), and even then the decision was effectively shaped behind the scenes through political understandings among key power brokers. It is therefore likely that the real decision will again be made within a narrow circle of elites rather than through a purely formal process.

C. The Future of the Doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih
Beyond the identity of the successor lies a deeper question: the future status of the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. Will Iran maintain the model of a strong, centralized Supreme Leader as shaped by Khamenei, or could the system evolve toward a more collective or limited leadership structure? This will be a crucial test for the regime’s ideological continuity.

D. A Succession Vacuum
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi — widely viewed as a leading candidate for succession — deepened the uncertainty. Names previously mentioned as potential successors include:
Hassan Khomeini – grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, perceived as relatively moderate. Sadeq Larijani – a senior institutional figure.
Hassan Rouhani – former president, though his relationship with Khamenei was complex Mojtaba Khamenei – the Supreme Leader’s son, long rumored as a possible candidate.
At present, no clear consensus candidate exists.

E. A Major Shock — But Not Necessarily Regime Collapse
Khamenei was a central pillar of the system, yet the regime rests on multiple power centers, foremost among them the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC has significant political, military, and economic interests in preserving the current order and possesses the capacity to stabilize the system if needed.

F. Low Probability of Immediate Dramatic Change
In the absence of an organized and capable opposition, and given the relative cohesion of Iran’s security elites, most assessments would suggest that even such a dramatic event is unlikely to trigger immediate revolutionary change. Rather, it may lead to an internal recalibration process.

G. Interim Leadership or Rapid Appointment?
A critical question is whether a temporary coordinating figure will be appointed until a permanent successor is selected, or whether a swift appointment will be made to project stability and continuity. The decision will reflect the balance of power among competing factions.

H. Regional and Religious Implications
Will Iran’s regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah, escalate as part of a narrative of revenge? Will senior Shiite clerical authorities — such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq — issue religious rulings framing retaliation as a duty? The response of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” will serve as an important indicator of post-event regime cohesion and control.

I. Implications for Negotiations with the West
If the regime survives and stabilizes, it is unlikely to project flexibility in the near term. On the contrary, it may adopt a more hardline posture in order to signal strength and consolidate internal legitimacy.

J. The Beginning of a Different Era Khamenei’s death would mark the historical end of a distinct era — but it remains unclear whether any internal actors will be able or willing to leverage the moment for structural transformation. But, even if the regime endures, Iran may emerge different, with a recalibrated internal balance of power and altered leadership dynamics.

Conclusion:
This would be a dramatic event with the potential to reshape both Iran’s internal political order and the broader regional landscape. However, the strength of state institutions, the IRGC, and the absence of a viable alternative political force suggest that any change — if it occurs — is more likely to be gradual and managed rather than immediate and revolutionary.
In brief: this assault is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Maybe Bibi keeps his job, but it’s at the expense of taxpayers in two countries.
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