Jonathan Lemire Is Full Of Shit

"Trump will receive accolades for whatever goes well, but will also be saddled with the many possible downsides, including U.S. and civilian casualties and the instability that could be unleashed if the Iranian regime falls in the face of the onslaught" https://t.co/Xj46zoShCt

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) February 28, 2026

And Trump is done.

"Trump is taking a huge gamble. He has drawn his cards; the chips are now on the table.

"Every so often, that pays off. Inside straights do exist. But any gambler will tell you: It’s not usually the way to bet" https://t.co/WEiJ0gVlCR

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) February 28, 2026

Fact the first:

Twenty years ago we invaded Iraq. The war killed many innocent Iraqis and Americans. It destroyed the oldest Christian populations in the world. It cost over $1 trillion, and turned Iraq into a satellite of Iran. It was an unforced disaster, and I pray that we learn its lessons.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) March 19, 2023

We tried this “imperialism” shit under the Monroe Doctrine. We wound up Castro in Cuba, and right-wing butcher governments in Central and South America. We could have helped those countries prosper, but we exploited them, left them to evil madmen, and to this day refuse them at our borders as they try to escape the consequences of the “banana republics” we benefited from. We got the killing fields of Pol Pot for our efforts in Vietnam. We crushed Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany with our allies, but the effort very nearly bankrupted us, and cost millions of lives. And that was because Japan and Germany wanted “regime change,” not us.

How quickly we forget.

We never went to war with the USSR, but it collapsed under its own weight. Had we helped it, the way we helped Germany after the war, things might be different in Russia. But we patted ourselves on the back for what we didn’t do, like accurately assess Russian military prowess, after Afghanistan. The Russian military we were told (by the CIA) to fear, is stalled in Ukraine, and needs mercenaries and foreign aid to not completely collapse in failure and self-defeat.

We have been wrong from the start, and haven’t learned a single lesson from the postwar era following WWII.

We succeed in regime change in Japan and Germany because we utterly destroyed their governments and worked with the survivors to establish one s that were viable. We occupied Japan and divided Germany. Berlin was divided into four sectors. It was the cost of war. We have never fought such a war again.  

And we aren’t now. If Trump withdraw ms from Iran in 60 days (most likely outcome. Israel won’t send in boots in the ground, either), this abuse of our military won’t win him GOP turnout in November. If anything it will galvanize more votes for Democratic challengers, especially in primaries (Texas goes early. The impact of this action will resonate in other states throughout the year.). Thus us Trump’s “Hail Mary,” but he’s throwing a hand grenade, not a football, and he’s throwing it into the middle of his own party.

There isn’t even the prospect of a gamble here. Trump has moved aircraft into the area; not troops. He has no intention of putting soldiers in Iran. He’s not looking for regime change. Not the way Shrub meant it, or Cheney. He’s just doing what Bibi told him to do, because he’s a kid in the playground playing “War.” He’ll get bored and want to start a new game before the two months are up.

God help us all. We certainly can’t seem to help ourselves.

The Trump admin actually asked in a poll how many casualties voters were willing to accept in a war with Iran???
How about ZERO you bunch of sick fucking liars.
We voted for America First and ZERO wars.

— Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@FmrRepMTG) February 28, 2026

I wonder if Lemire folded this into his analysis?