Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Why I Don’t Trust In Polls

Texas Tribune:
Through Monday, 665,664 votes were cast in-person and by mail in the Democratic primary, compared to 593,692 cast in the Republican primary, according to unofficial data from the Texas Secretary of State. The 1,259,356 votes is higher than both the 2024 and 2020 primaries through seven days of early voting, despite turnout typically being higher in presidential election years.
Also Texas Tribune, also same day:
Dallas U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has a double-digit lead over Austin state Rep. James Talarico in the final days of Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

In the survey, fielded from Feb. 2 to Feb. 16, Crockett garnered the support of 56% of voters, while Talarico got 44%. For the Democratic primary, pollsters from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project surveyed a sample of 369 voters, producing a margin of error of +/-5.1 points.
369 voters out of 665,664 just seems like a very small tail trying to wag a very big dog.

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