Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Is it wrong to feel this much schadenfreude?

This can only get better, although not for Our Man on Their Side.

As Josh Marshall notes, this really does look like a free fall (Cokie Roberts and Conventional Wisdom the night of the debate notwithstanding).   The Five Thirty-Eight Nowcast (which I am more and more inclined to take as the predictor of outcome, since people are voting NOW), gives Clinton an 88% chance of winning, which is only 8 points below her high of 96% on August 8th.

Yeah, good thing somebody removed those....shackles? (On a rich white man, running to be the President of so many descendants of slaves?  Never mind, that's part of the shackle-removing, I guess.  D'oh, there is it again!  Darn these shackles, will they never give rich white men any peace?)

Another rich white guy who wanted to lose his shackles.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Adventures in Wonderland


I am quoting this extensively simply because it is the best summation of the debate I watched last night that I have read:

Trump bullied and lied. He once again dismissed his hot mic boasts about sexual assault as “locker-room” talk. He denied sending an early morning tweet telling Americans to check out the (nonexistent) sex tape of a former Miss Universe, when the tweet, less than two weeks old, is on the internet for all to see. Given a chance to hit Clinton on potentially damaging revelations from WikiLeaks, he spun off on a tangent about his redevelopment of Washington’s Old Post Office, now a Trump International Hotel. He blamed Clinton for failing to act after Syria violated President Obama’s “red line” on the use of chemical weapons, allowing Clinton to point out that at the time she’d already stepped down as secretary of state. He said, “Russia is new, in terms of nuclear,” when in fact Russia first tested nuclear weapons in 1949. His threat to have a Trump Justice Department prosecute Clinton was a desecration of American civic norms. From any other candidate, such behavior would be judged a meltdown.
It was weird listening to Trump.  It was like listening to a living, breathing Lewis Carroll character who is not Alice.  That whole digression about the Old Post Office was so odd no one is mentioning it this morning, but it sounded like your crazy uncle at Thanksgiving whose had too many trips to the bottle in the paper bag in the car outside.  It was so completely incoherent (supposedly it proved his financial bona fides, don't ask me why) that, in any other year, it would have ended a campaign immediately.

Instead, this morning, Cokie Roberts (and, to be fair, everyone on PBS last night) were insisting Trump had "stopped" his "free fall."  Jonah Goldberg (!) put it best:  in a crashing plane, last night they got the coffee maker to work.

The sad thing is, it took Jonah Goldberg to say it.  Even Alice could declare they were nothing but a pack of cards.  Despite the heroic efforts of Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz to push back against Trump's spew (another story entirely), the media this morning continues to pretend "objective" means "both sides still do it," and that somehow this is still a serious process.

When they so clearly, clearly don't and it so clearly, clearly isn't.

'He denies it,' said the King: 'leave out that part.'


I have to pound on this one because it's important:







There is more than a little loose talk on the interwebs that Clinton is now using "Nixonian" methods to win the election.  I have no idea what that means since I know of no allegations that Clinton masterminded any attempt to gain knowledge of what the RNC is up to, has investigated anyone's analyst (Ellsberg; you could look it up), or contacted a foreign power to urge them to slow walk peace talks until she is elected (again, you could look it up).  Nor is she employing anything resembling a "Southern strategy," while Trump went full Breitbart last night, down to assuming all African Americans live in "the inner city," a mythical place where they are (apparently) safely confined away from white America in the suburbs.

There's no question that debate was a right dog's breakfast,   But the nadir was Trumps' remark about jailing Clinton, a remark that drew roars of approval from the audience and, if you check the Twitter feeds above, obviously drew support on Twitter.  But, as Howard Fineman pointed out:

In what was surely the most chilling moment of the night, Trump said that Clinton had criminally mishandled her State Department emails, should be “in jail,” and vowed, if elected, to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate her conduct in office.

Of course he had already decided that she should be in jail, so who needs a prosecutor?

This is why the Special Prosecutor statute, inspired by Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre (in which Elliot Richardson resigned rather than be Nixon's hatchet man.  The man who finally agreed to do the job?  Robert Bork.) lapsed after Bill Clinton's presidency.  What started as an investigation into Whitewater allegations ended up with Ken Starr, given a remit to find something and unlimited funds and time to do it, ended with him successfully bringing one perjury charge that the House approved, for Clinton's prevarications about his consensual sexual affair with Monica Lewinsky.  Any prosecutor with world enough and time can find something to charge any person in America with a crime.  The worst Clinton faced was removal from office.  Donald Trump says Hillary Clinton would face jail.  Verdict first, trial afterwards.

'Consider your verdict,' the King said to the jury.

'Not yet, not yet!' the Rabbit hastily interrupted. 'There's a great deal to come before that!'
The question is, if Trump were President:  who would the be the Rabbit who would hastily interrupt?

And yeah, he really meant what he said:

Not that Trump displayed any knowledge of how government works (apparently as the Senator from New York, Hillary was supposed to single-handedly rewrite federal tax law, and see it implemented), but what else is a special prosecutor for except to investigate until a crime, any crime, is found, and then prosecute until conviction?  I suppose Trump would say even double jeopardy should fall in order for "justice" to be done.

Talk about falling down the rabbit hole....



Sunday, October 09, 2016

It never occurred to me just how dangerous Trump is, until now....


President Obama did not look into prosecuting George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, or any other members of the previous Administration for violating American criminal law precisely because of the precedent it would set, for the succeeding President to prosecute the preceding President.

Donald Trump tonight said he would direct his Attorney General to appoint a special prosecutor precisely to put Hillary Clinton in jail (someone will have to tell Donald there is no special prosecutor statute, and the appointment of such a person with such a goal would be a violation of the Constitution in so many ways I can't count them all right now).

This is your Presidential campaign, America.  Cherish it.

And the beat(down) goes on....


Trump followed that tweet below by retweeting Juanita Broaddrick:


Which is really sad, in just so many ways.  Aside from the fact that we're being asked to litigate an event alleged to have happened 38 years ago, there's the fact that while Ms. Broaddrick has said she had an "encounter" with Hillary Clinton sometime after the alleged assault (in 1978), the first public mention of that comes from The Drudge Report in 1999.  The "story she has told for decades" mentions only that Hillary thanked Broaddrick for "everything she had done for Bill."  Broaddrick interpreted this as a threat to keep silent.

Seems a very, very soft kind of threat, even giving it the most generous interpretation (i.e,. most favorable to the victim).

This is a classic "he said/she said" situation, one that could never get near a court of law.  No matter, of course, because the new standard of proof in the court of public opinion in the matter of alleged rapes is guilty until proven innocent; and the perpetrator can never be proven innocent without an ironclad alibi and ten witnesses of unimpeachable character who all saw him somewhere else at the time of the rape.  According to the Vox article, hotel records can't even place Juanita Broaddrick in the hotel room on the day she says she was raped, but no matter.  The Buzzfeed article and the Vox article are examples of recent renewals of her claims which withered for want of a second, or any further interest.  She has been telling the same story for decades, though the Hillary "threat" portion is only 17 years old.  Is is true because she repeats it, or has she convinced herself it's true because she's repeated it so often?

We have absolutely no way to tell; and now Donald Trump wants to exploit another woman's pain in order to save himself, or at least deflect from what he has done and who he is.  Recall how he said he would invite her to the first debate?  She tweeted that she was ready to go, but the invitation never came.  Trump was playing with her name for his own purposes.  He's doing it again, for the same purposes.

He is not only unfit for the office of President of the United States; he is unfit to be among decent people.

ADDING:

In case you're wondering where Trump is going to go with this tonight.


He can't tell you his "secret plan" for defeating ISIS.  But he can telegraph his punches to Hillary.

Saturday, October 08, 2016

"May you live in interesting times"



You can't make this stuff up.

Compare and Contrast

And their hearts and minds will follow?

Since the revelation that Donald Trump is, indeed, a crude man-child who, well into his 6th decade was still talking like a 13 year old boy, a dividing line has been exposed by the shifting tectonic plates.  One one side (actually before the tape was released ) were "100 evangelical leaders":

“Imperfect elections and flawed candidates often make for complicated and difficult choices for Christians,” the letter reads. “But sometimes historic moments arise when more is at stake than partisan politics ― when the meaning and integrity of our faith hangs in the balance. This is one of those moments.”
...
“Because we believe that racial bigotry has been a cornerstone of this campaign, it is a foundational matter of the gospel for us in this election, and not just another issue,” they wrote. “This is not just a social problem, but a fundamental wrong. Racism is America’s original sin. Its brazen use to win elections threatens to reverse real progress on racial equity and set America back.”
Counterpoint to those 100 leaders and 5000+ signatures, are the statements of Ralph Reed and Tony Perkins:

“People of faith are voting on issues like who will protect unborn life, defund Planned Parenthood, defend religious liberty and oppose the Iran nuclear deal,” Ralph Reed, the leader of the Faith and Freedom Coalition told the Daily Beast. “A ten-year-old tape of a private conversation with a talk show host ranks low on their hierarchy of concerns.”
...
“My personal support for Donald Trump has never been based upon shared values, it is based upon shared concerns about issues such as: justices on the Supreme Court that ignore the constitution, America’s continued vulnerability to Islamic terrorists and the systematic attack on religious liberty that we’ve seen in the last 7 1/2 years,” Perkins told Buzzfeed in an e-mail.
Of Mr. Reed as an "evangelical leader," let the record reflect:

To recap, Ralph Reed worked for team Abramoff by mobilizing Christians opposed to gambling to shutter casinos. The only hitch: Reed was usually paid by other casinos who had a financial interest in eliminating their competitors. Therefore, Abramoff needed to find a way to make Reed comfortable, and to protect him against critics and the likely fury of his own Christian followers--who might have been upset if they had discovered that Reed was being paid by gamblers to do their bidding. The solution: Abramoff laundered the Indian casino payoffs to Reed by routing them through other organizations, including Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform and a phony "think tank" in Rehoboth Beach, MD, run by a life guard and a yoga instructor who were friends of Abramoff's pal, Mike Scanlon.

Let's be clear: there was probably nothing illegal about what Reed did. But, he was engaged in a kind of spiritual fraud: telling his supporters that he was opposed to gambling when, in fact, gambling was making him rich.

Marjoe could take lessons from Ralph Reed.

Notice there is no statement from Mr. Reed or Mr. Perkins about "sin," or racism, which is truly "America's original sin."  No statement about social problems, unless you consider abortion a social problem; not even a mention of the gospel.  No, their statements are about political power: about American foreign policy vis a vis Iran's nuclear program; about "religious liberty," which they define as the liberty to mistreat same sex couples and homosexuals in general (which is still, despite Obergefell, legal to do); about abortion (without which they wouldn't have something to persistently rail against, so that dog never wants to catch that car), and Planned Parenthood (just because).

Mr. Reed and Mr. Perkins are about chasing shibboleths, the better to aggrandize power to themselves.  Take away those phantoms, and what are they good for?  "Evangelical leaders"?  In their minds, only.  And interesting they are so much in the minority on this issue of supporting Trump, and so steadfastly attached to him even when it is clear he is no "Sunday school teacher."  Who cares?  It's not about morality for them; it's all about power.

Friday, October 07, 2016

Watching the donut, not the a**hole

I told you I wasn't a very nice person....

While you're reading all the stories about the disgusting things Donald Trump said about women in general, and Nancy O'Dell in particular, keep this in mind:

Within minutes of the tape’s release, in what appeared to be a strategic counterstrike, WikiLeaks dumped more than 2,000 emails it claimed were hacked from top Clinton adviser John Podesta’s personal email account, and said they were only the first of 50,000.

One message exchange appears to include Clinton’s advisers highlighting the potentially most damaging portions of her paid speeches, including those before Wall Street audiences.
When Politico is reporting it that way, the mask is well and truly off of Wikileaks.

Politico will also give you the full accounting of all of Trump's "locker room" (his words) comment.

As Trump tweeted two days ago:


Yes, and I don't think this is going to help him much with early voters.

Morning Edition

Because I'm still not as nice as I should be....

The woman being interviewed on the radio would not mention Donald Trump's name, even when prodded to do so.  When asked why, she answered that she didn't need to tear someone down in order to make Hillary Clinton look big.  Hillary Clinton, she said, is already big.  She's already prepared to be President, and there is no argument that her opponent is equally prepared.  So she didn't need to belittle him, criticize him, complain about him.  She didn't even need to mention him.

Not because she was arrogant and superior; but because she didn't need the shrill discourse of national politics to guide her.  She was clearly of the school of "If you can't say anything nice about a person, don't say anything at all."

It was a lesson, at least to me.  I like to try to learn something every day, even if it isn't new.  I tell myself it's the learning that matters.  I know it's at least better than not learning.

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Because it's October


Here's the thing about "haunted houses."

The genre (gothic) started with The Castle of Otranto.  But its real boost came from Edgar Allan Poe, who passed it on to H.P. Lovecraft who passed it on to Shirley Jackson.

Noticing a pattern, here?  Or at least the origin:  19th century, no earlier.  And even Poe had to set most of his "haunted" stories in places where European habitation was far older than it was in America.  The reference to the tarn in "The Fall of the House of Usher" is the giveaway; the term is Scottish, and it refers to a Highland lake.  "The Cask of Amontillado" takes place in Italy during Epiphany (a celebration largely unknown in Protestant America, outside Catholic southern Louisiana).  Most of Poe's stories set in "spooky" places are set in places where "the weight of the lives that had been lived in these places" can be felt.

There weren't many such places in America in the mid-19th century.  There still aren't.

I felt that weight when I first set foot on European soil, 40 years ago this year.  It was immediately apparent to my senses if not my rational mind (I couldn't point to any one factor to explain it, especially since the first soil I stepped on was the tarmac of an airport.  It was not a medieval airport.) that human beings had been marking and reshaping (consider the "Netherlands") this continent for millennia, far longer and far deeper than any impact my ancestors had impressed on America.

And that sense of age, and the impression that it matters, is purely Romantic; as are gothic tales, and stories of "haunted houses."  We haunt them, not ghosts.  And by "we" I mean we post-Romantic Europeans and Americans.

It was that weight the Romantics felt as they saw everything being plowed under, or abandoned, for the factory and the machine.  Once again European culture turned to the Greeks and the Romans of yore, but this time they also turned to European culture:  folk tales were preserved by the Brothers Grimm, and soon witches became part of literary culture.  Ghosts, too; and then vampires by the end of the 19th century, and soon we were reveling in invented folklore because the real thing wasn't interesting enough, so that "even a man who says his prayers, and whose heart is pure and light, can become a wolf who the wolfbane blooms, and the moon is full and bright."  It's not exactly the Green Lantern pledge, but it might as well be.  It is that weight of loss, of abandonment, that made us look back and grab with both hands and pull forward all that fear and terror, and when it wasn't so fearsome and terrible (we quickly bowdlerized the Brothers Grimm, then set about inventing new stories, so great was our hunger for them) enough, we turned to Lovecraft and then modern horror.  We didn't do this because of the Renaissance, nor because of the Enlightenment; we did it because of the machine.

O machine, O machine!

So terror resided in the old, as it haunted the new.  Castles, ruins, old houses; blighted landscapes were still signs of plague (the Wasteland around Grail Castle becomes the withered landscape outside the House of Usher) but became scarier, so that Irving's rather benign (though excellent) story of Ichabod Crane becomes a nightmare hellscape of black leafless trees against a moonlit sky, and the pumpkin becomes a leering jack o'lantern that leaves a trail of flame in the sky as it hurtles away from the demonic horseman.  Owls become, not creatures a man like Crane would be familiar with at night, but a leering face of danger.  Bats fly from nowhere, because they are symbols of evil and vampires.  It isn't Irving's audience Walt Disney was trying to scare, but us:  city dwellers who've never heard an owl or seen a bat fly (they tend to fly alone, and are very, very small, not huge and menacing and flying in masses).  And it all extends the gothic elements from a century before.  In ghost stories, if it ain't gothic, it ain't shit.

It's not that I don't believe in hauntings.  I've known friends with weird and inexplicable tales, and my mother and her twin were connected in a way that can only be described as ESP (although it didn't affect my mother when her twin died, so....).  When a group came to photograph spirits at the graveyard of the church where I was pastor (just outside the front door of the parsonage, and 150 years old; old for this part of Texas, for Europeans here, anyway), I joined them.  I explained that I believe in the Father, the Son, and the Holy Ghost, so why not spirits?

But I know where tales of haunted houses come from, and you don't find them in the literature before the 19th century.  You can find tales that sound like haunted house stories, but they bear faint, if any, resemblance to Hill House or the House of Usher (or the castle of Otranto).   No, that fascination with eldritch places, with ruined abbeys (the London haunt of Dracula) comes later.  Even Frankenstein doesn't bring his Creature to life in a castle in a thunderstorm (two elements of gothic; you could look it up), but in a student's room, muttering occult alchemical phrases and doing undescribed things (the blinkenlights and spitzensparken of the movies, and even "Penny Dreadful," bear no relation to the book).  There's a reason for that; it's the same reason Dracula lives in a castle, and takes refuge in an abandoned abbey in modern-day (for Stoker) London.  By the end of the 19th century, Stoker's audience was well educated in gothic; they knew what to expect, and they knew what they wanted.  If it ain't gothic, it ain't shit.

But it also ain't universal.  What we think of as a "haunted house" has to be changed dramatically to be found in any other culture; just as what we think of as a "witch" in this month of Hallowe'en bears no resemblance to even the "witch" of Endor, or even the alleged "witches" of Salem, Massachusetts.

We are not racists, we're just prejudiced


"Skeptics of implicit bias aren’t necessarily wicked. They’re just human."

Which is where the Christian in me wants to say:  "They are wicked; but that's because they're human."  But the deeper problem with Saletan's analysis is that he wants to eat his racism, and have it, too.

Saletan's whole argument here, that "bias" is unavoidable but "racism" is bad, is still based on that spectrum excuse I grew up with.  "I have nothing against those people [insert insidious grouping of people here], I just wouldn't want my daughter to marry one."  See?  No racism there!  Maybe some bias, what we used to call "prejudice," but hey, it's only human, right?

Saletan forgets, as the song from "South Pacific" said, that you have to be taught to hate.  You have to be taught bias.  It isn't human in the sense that, like language acquisition or learning to walk upright, it's innate.  It's only human in the sense that it is cultural.  And that's the other part of this argument that offends, in a sense, my Christianity:  because one of the cardinal (and ordinal!) teachings of Christianity is radical inclusion; overcoming the very "bias" Saletan thinks we are all inevitably heir to.

You are heir to your eye color; you aren't heir to what your eyes "see" in skin color.

The real "struggle to overcome bias" would be not to teach it at all.  We only see skin color as a basis for bias because we've been teaching the importance of that distinction for the past 200 years.  But the only way to overcome racism is to recognize that fact:  that any distinction we make based on the artificial concept of race is racist itself.  Just as anytime you point a finger at someone else, three more are pointing back at you, it is safe to say we are all racists.  That's no more radical a statement than to say "all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God."  But if we make either statement we need not do it from a stance of judgment, but merely as the basis for self-examination.

Because the splinter you see in your brother's or sister's eye, is always just a reflection of the log sticking out of your own.

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

"Wait a second. What?"


Things going unknown (or at least unnoticed).

In the debate last night, Mike Pence said something that deserves a bit more attention than "That Mexican thing" (which deserves attention not only because of the contempt it displays, but because Pence accused Kaine of whipping that thing out, which should appeal to the juvenile children in all men):

 “Most of what you said is completely false,” Pence argued at one point after Kaine had said a bunch of true things. “And the American people know that. This isn’t the old days where you can just say stuff and be believed.” Wait a second. What?
The full quote from Slate is worth it for that one.  If ever a nominee spoke about the true nature of his own campaign, it is there, where Pence, having already derided the Clinton/Kaine ticket for being "insult driven," drove the Freudian car right off the cliff when he could no longer come up with better ways to deny Donald Trump had said what Donald Trump (and Mike Pence) had said.

And then there was the lovely revelation in the Frontline documentary that still hasn't gotten the attention it deserved.  The tear-out quote before the film aired was about how every knee would bend and every head would bow before the awesomeness that would be President Trump.  What got little to no attention, however, was the explanation, in the very opening of the documentary, on why Trump is running for the highest office in the land.

It's because he was insulted by President Obama during a White House Correspondent's dinner Trump attended in 2011.  Which is the year Trump started making noise about a Presidential run, and the year he started making connections through campaign contributions through Trump Foundation..

You could look it up.

Interestingly, no one in the Trump campaign is denying that explanation.  No one else seems interested in it, either.

Curiouser and curiouser.

We are living in the Matrix


Or some equally bad movie about re-presenting reality through a decidedly cracked lens.

Mike Pence last night made much of the "insult driven campaign" of Hillary Clinton.*  Donald Trump was so excited he couldn't stay off Twitter:


Well; this is gonna be great.  But, as I say, Mike Pence kept complaining about the "insult driven campaign" of Clinton/Kaine.  Meanwhile, back at the ranch:


And then:


Followed immediately by:



This is the guy who is supposed to improve by Sunday night, to be more "Presidential" and less easily inflamed.  If you wrote this into a script, the comic contrast of Pence denouncing insults even as Trump re-tweets them, would be such a cliche as to be banal.

When life is so determined to imitate what can barely be called art (and only in the most generous understanding of the term), it's time to expect the clouds to be rolled up and water to start running up hill in preparation for closing the whole thing down.

*I really have to illustrate the full mendacity of Pence's position, just for the record:

“I can’t imagine,” said Kaine at the opening of the debate, “how Gov. Pence can defend the insult-driven selfish ‘me first’ style of Donald Trump.” Pence had a simple reply. “Let me say first and foremost that, senator, you and Hillary Clinton would know a lot about an insult-driven campaign. It really is remarkable,” he said, before accusing Kaine of launching an “avalanche of insults.”

Despite the obvious truth, Pence’s response was to call these quotes—taken almost verbatim from Trump—a kind of “insult” against the GOP ticket. These insults? These insults were quotes. Kaine was quoting Donald Trump, telling viewers that Trump had called Mexicans “rapists and criminals” (true); that he had called women “slobs, pigs, dogs, and disgusting” (true); and that he had attacked an Indiana-born federal judge “and said he was unqualified to hear a federal lawsuit because his parents were Mexican” (also true).


Sunday, October 02, 2016

Keep pluckin' that chicken!

"Fix them" so he can get a longer tax write-off than 18 years?

As several outlets have pointed out, Trump has yet to say the facts in the NYT article are false.  And as the NYT article says:

The documents show, for example, that while Mr. Trump reported $7.4 million in interest income in 1995, he made only $6,108 in wages, salaries and tips. They also suggest Mr. Trump took full advantage of generous tax loopholes specifically available to commercial real estate developers to claim a $15.8 million loss in 1995 on his real estate holdings and partnerships.

But the most important revelation from the 1995 tax documents is just how much Mr. Trump may have benefited from a tax provision that is particularly prized by America’s dynastic families, which, like the Trumps, hold their wealth inside byzantine networks of partnerships, limited liability companies and S corporations.

The provision, known as net operating loss, or N.O.L., allows a dizzying array of deductions, business expenses, real estate depreciation, losses from the sale of business assets and even operating losses to flow from the balance sheets of those partnerships, limited liability companies and S corporations onto the personal tax returns of men like Mr. Trump. In turn, those losses can be used to cancel out an equivalent amount of taxable income from, say, book royalties or branding deals. 

What part of that is he going to convince people he's going to "fix"?  Isn't he "smart" for not paying taxes for 18 years?  And "branding deals" is what the Frontline documentary on Trump said is where his money has come from since the bankruptcy of his casino.  So this goes on and on and on.

Saturday, October 01, 2016

So, here's the thing


Nigel Farage reviews Trump's performance in the first debate:

“On tax, where she did I think surprise him a little bit, [he should] point out ‘look, I’m 70-years-old. I’ve paid a lot of tax over the last 50 years.’ Deal with it, brush it off, spend five seconds on it. And on the racism point, and there’s no doubt she will come back to this again and again and again… I think the way you deal with being called racist when you’re not is just to say ‘look, you know, the only people that say I’m racist are those who aren’t prepared to confront the immigration issue’ and then move on to your territory… Don’t let her [Clinton] dictate the agenda. Frankly, ignore her criticisms and speak to a bigger audience.”
If Trump were capable of doing that, he wouldn't have spent the past week making Alicia Machado a household name.

He's not capable of it.  If Clinton needles him, he's going to respond.  Find a tape of the moment she broached this subject in the debate:  Trump interrupted three times, in rapid succession, with the same question:  "Where did you get that?"

"Where did you get that?" "Where did you get that?" "Where did you get that?"

He was rattled the moment Machado's name was mentioned.  He's been rattled ever since.

Farage has crossed the Pond to play Henry Higgins to Trump's Eliza Doolittle, but he only has a week to change 70 years of behavior and character.  Besides, Trump has already promised to go after Clinton's marital history; “She’s nasty, but I can be nastier than she ever can be," he told the New York Times.

Nigel Farage is not going to stop that train.  Nigel Farage is not going to make a silk purse out of this sow's butt.

This is what Farage is up against:

But on Saturday, Trump told thousands of supporters that Clinton’s handling of classified emails and destroying of 33,000 emails that she had deemed of a personal nature meant that “she should be in prison, let me tell you.”

Trump did not stop there. He said he did not believe Clinton would be loyal to her supporters and chuckled, “I don’t even think she’s loyal to Bill, to tell you the truth. And why should she be, right? Why should she be?”
I wonder if he's given up and gone back to England yet?

(and this morning the NYT reports Trump didn't pay taxes for almost two decades because of massive losses in 1995 on his New Jersey casino.  Can you imagine how much fun Hillary is going to have with a business "genius" who runs a casino into the ground?  The next debate is going to be a bear-baiting contest.)

Friday, September 30, 2016

I can't look away. I'll look away.

You know at 3 in the morning he still looked like this.

Well, no, I can't after all.

It's like a train wreck Trump just keeps causing:

Speaking by phone from a campaign swing in Michigan, he said that he was “absolutely disgusted” that Mrs. Clinton had allied herself politically with a Miss Universe winner, Alicia Machado, whom Mr. Trump had derided for gaining weight.

Mr. Trump said that Mrs. Clinton, who has portrayed Ms. Machado as a victidm of Mr. Trump’s cruel insults, had “made this young lady into a girl scout when she was the exact opposite.” He asserted, without offering any evidence, that Ms. Machado had once participated in a sex tape.

It's Friday night, and he just won't let go of it.  I don't even understand how Clinton has made Machado a "girl scout".  But Trump and Roger Stone are sure they have their finger on the pulse of America, especially American women:

He said he was bringing up Mr. Clinton’s infidelities because he thought they would repulse female voters and turn them away from the Clintons, and because he was eager to unsettle Mrs. Clinton in their next two debates and on the campaign trail.
....
Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers have tried to suggest focusing on accusations that Mrs. Clinton tried to discredit women who said they had been harassed by Mr. Clinton. Chief among those suggesting this approach is Roger Stone, the longest-serving Trump adviser, who wrote a book called “The Clintons’ War on Women,” laying out accusations from Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Willey, who have accused Mr. Clinton of sexual assault — accusations the Clintons or their lawyer David Kendall have denied.
It's like they both think if Gingrich had just tried harder to sell this line in the '90's, Gingrich would still be Speaker.  Instead of what actually happened, where Gingrich resigned and Clinton left office with approval ratings rivaling Obama's now.

At this point Hillary doesn't have to prepare for the next debate.  She can just say "Alicia Machado" over and over, and Trump will howl to beat Pavlov's dogs.  As NBC News said:

Still reeling from Monday's widely panned debate performance, the Republican nominee has found refuge in a fringe media environment where his victory is assured, his setbacks are the result of shadowy plots, and his critics are humiliated by sordid revelations.
And the two candidates have diametrically opposed takes on this tempest in a teapot.  Trump says:

“Why would I have regrets? I’m a very truthful person, and I’m telling the truth. Now people understand it. And before the tweets, people didn’t understand it.” 
Of course, there's the matter of what they understand:

“I mean, his latest Twitter meltdown is unhinged, even for him,” Mrs. Clinton said on Friday.

“Really, who gets up at 3 o’clock in the morning to engage in a Twitter attack against a former Miss Universe?” she asked. 
Truth, as always, is a matter of understanding; not a matter of what Donald Trump insists it is.

We conclude with a timely reminder:  early voting has started.  Those votes are as valid as any cast on the second Tuesday in November, and they are cast in stone.  Impressions the candidates are making now are driving voters to the polls early, already decided.   And in Houston, voters are being encouraged to register to vote at taco trucks, which are very popular here.  It isn't likely many of those voters are going to be Trump supporters.

At least half of America will be able to vote before November, and if Trump is this easy to bait, the decline in his support is likely to continue.  More and more the "Nowcast" at 538.com could be how voters are voting, now.

Our man on their side

Because suddenly it needed a picture

Apparently Trump was up late last night:






One problem, among many:  there is no sex tape.

Per 538.com this morning, the likelihood of Hillary winning the election has risen to over 66%, a steady climb since Monday.  I doubt the polls are yet reflecting the impact of the debate, but there are two to go.  And he's still fuming about a beauty pageant contestant and a beauty contest from 20 years ago.

As well as the fact he was up at 4 o'clock this morning writing those tweets.  Is he on speed?

It would be irresponsible not to speculate.

I know I keep updating, but the internet is such a rich source of material:


Thursday, September 29, 2016

"Officer, they're looting the Food King!"



Estimates are that between 80 and 100 million people watched the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday, September 26.  That was the lowest point in the race (for Hillary supporters; or the closest the two candidates had been, in the polls, if you prefer) since July 30, according to 538.com. 

The gap between Clinton and Trump has only widened since then.  Do debates matter?  Normally, no.  Mitt Romney didn't turn the tide in the first debate against Obama, although many thought that debate a disaster for the President.  But Donald Trump turned in a  performance for the ages, one many thought the worst ever for a candidate.

And then he doubled down on it.  For the past three days he has been bringing up. on his own, the former Miss Universe, in a manner sure to endear him to undecideds and women voters everywhere.  Now he is reportedly trying to get his supporters to bring up Monica Lewinsky every chance they get, because clearly a woman who can't keep her man from wandering and unzipping his pants with other women, is not a woman fit to be President.

Again, a surely winning issue for Mr. Trump.

His "surrogates" don't want to do this.  They would rather he talk about the economy and security issues, the thinks they are sure voters are concerned about.  Some even say the fault lies with Lester Holt for not asking the right questions at the debate; but Trump never raised those issues either.  He interrupted frequently, snorted derisively, rose to the bait every time Mrs. Clinton dangled it, and yet it is someone else's fault he looked the fool.

It always is.

Will the next two debates matter?  Yes, if only to confirm the train wreck.  Donald Trump will end his campaign with those debates.  Early voting has already started in Iowa, with the first debate fresh on everyone's mind, and Trump seizing the headlines to complain about how a former Miss Universe has so abused him; when he isn't talking about expelling non-conservative Christians from his rallies.  But, just like he didn't bring up Bill Clinton's infidelities at the first debate, in a manly show of restraint, he won't expel non-conservative Christians from his rallies.

Well, not yet; but don't try his patience.  Or question his manliness; or anything else about him; like his success in the debate.  He will insist on his view, and damn reality.

Which has its own ways of damning those who insist on denying it.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Wait a minute!


Where's all the straight people? 

A quick question about this Pew research regarding American opinions on matters like same-sex marriage and who gets to pee where.  Please note the responses are divided, among other ways, between those who regularly attend worship, and those who don't.

And immediately the question is:  how does Pew know?  Well, by asking, of course.  But how do they know it's true?

Answer:  they don't.

Not that this means a great deal in and of itself, but the response skew strongly conservative (as in, maintain the status quo) among those who regularly attend worship.  Which could mean there is a direct causal connection between religious worship (Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Baha'i, what have you) and social conservatism.  Or it could mean social conservatives are more concerned with thinking of themselves as regular attendees at worship, because it is right and proper to do so.

Although anecdotally I must say the most regular worshippers are generally the most conservative, in the sense they want things to always be done the way we've always done them, a sense true for the most radical UCC church goer as it is for the hardest shell Baptist or MO Synod member.  All a matter there of what you're "conserving."  And yes, church is still a "pillar" or American society, and we all know pillars mean they are straight and strong and unmoving, preferably still looking like one of the classic Greek styles, if at all possible (i.e., as frozen in time as stone, or concrete, which really doesn't wear away).

But correlation is not the same as causation.

Still, I've got to read the results to see what conclusions I draw from them.  That just stuck out to me. I've learned too well how to worry about too little.

Carry on.

The Martian Chronicles

Mars is Heaven!

The first contradiction in Elon Musk's idea to colonize Mars is that we can't save earth (if we don't become a multiplantery species, he argues, we face certain doom!), but we can terraform Mars.

Huh?

And we'll do this within 9 years, or at least start it, through a company that so far has never sent a single human being into orbit. and whose Mars Project depends on building the largest rocket ever built (if it could be built).  Yes, we have put people on the Moon; but obviously it isn't the same thing as putting someone behind the wheel of a car.

Or even making a car that won't drive itself into trucks.

But I love the idea that Mars, with no life forms that will support human life, will be home to a colony of Vegans one day (Musk says we can send a pizza kitchen; but can we send the makings for pepperoni, or will that have to be an import item?).  As we learn more and more about the bacteria in our gut that sustain life, and the microbes that make our body systems possible, I wonder just how much we understand our connection through these organisms to the environment around us.  There is already concern for the effects of low or zero-gravity on the human eye.  What other affects are we not considering?

And if a disease process starts running through a Mars colony that can only get a flight through from Earth every 26 months, it could be almost three years between outbreak and any possible medicines to combat it.  Mars colonists would have to make the most rabid hypochondriacs look like libertines.  It would be a matter of survival.

Besides, you cannot live on Mars outside of an artificial environment.  Cabin Fever would not be an issue because it couldn't be.  Except, of course, it would be.  Yes, we could put domes under the sea and live there, too.  But you can leave the dome and be on dry land in a matter of hours.  Every colonist on Mars would be a "boy in a bubble," and every person on Mars would have to learn to live in what would essentially be a monastic community:  one dedicated to one thing, and one thing only :  survival in an environment not meant to support human life.

And it's a one-way ticket.  In that sense the colonists would be more like anchorites than monks and cloistered nuns.  They would, like the anchorites, be dead to the world.  Unlike the anchorites, however, they would have no contact with the world; only with each other.  The kind of richness and complexity of society we imagine in science fiction movies would be non-existent, in the same way the post-apocalyptic world in movies has lost all industry, but retains an endless supply of ammunition and gasoline.  In a world with no industry, both of those items would be too valuable to use; in the movies, they are consumed with abandon, even though they would be wholly irreplaceable.  Just so in colonizing Mars:  the settlers would not be a wildly diverse crew pursuing a variety of ends.  They would all concentrate on one thing:  survival.  That, and being sure no foolish or careless individual threatened their survival.

Imagine the police state that would soon become.

Elon Musk may imagine it a paradise, or even a next logical step for humanity.  I can only see it as a living hell, and a dead end.

But none of this would have to happen because we would "terraform" Mars.  Ray Bradbury did it by planting trees, which grew to full size almost overnight.  I'm not sure what fantastical solution Mr. Musk has in mind, but like most of his thinking on this subject, I'm sure it's entirely fictional.