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'Turning point': Analyst sees campaign 'masterclass' gain shocking boost for Trumphttps://t.co/sIki4JRWzn

— Raw Story (@RawStory) October 21, 2024

Writing in the New York Times, John Della Volpe — the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics — described seeing young men flock to the GOP presidential candidate’s campaign. 

It’s the result of a dedicated effort to win young males over to the MAGA movement, he wrote. 

“If effective, his effort could peel enough away from the Democratic Party to transform the country’s electoral math for years to come,” he wrote. 

He said his research has shown an, “Increasing political rift between young men and women under 30, two groups critical to Democrats’ success in recent elections. 

“Almost exactly equal shares of young men and young women say they will definitely vote in this election or have already done so. But since the spring of 2020, the share of young men identifying as registered Democrats has dropped by seven percentage points, while those identifying as Republicans have increased by seven points.”

Or:

While white non-college voters still make up the bulk of Trump's base, he won them by 31 percentage points in 2020 after winning them by 33 points in 2016 -- and recent polls show Trump winning this demographic by 27 points this year. 

"Now that may not seem like a lot," acknowledged Enten. "But given that we're seeing these double-digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him... I think that's a rather interesting development." 

"Shrinkage," host John Berman commented wryly before asking Enten why even a small loss of support from non-college white voters could make a real difference in the 2024 race.

Polls and the political analysis they support are both pretty much for shit. Garbage in, garbage out.